Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Provident Financial Services, Inc. (PFS)
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-05
$22.94-2.47%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
2.59 → 2.58 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for PFS yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
EPS at least $0.61 for fiscal year ending 2026-12-31 | A primary condition in Provident Financial Services, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $0.61 EPS for FY 2026. | Intact | EPS guidance falls below $0.61 for FY 2026 | Diluted EPS: $0.60 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.61 EPS for FY 2026. Target period ends 2026-12-31; this observation covers 2026-Q2. Aug 7, 20260.6 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
PFS is a financial-sector investment with a value tilt, rather than a clear growth or turnaround case. The long-term thesis is intact, but management execution is volatile and the evidence snapshot gives only medium confidence.
PFS is described as cheap versus peers, and its valuation score has fallen recently. The priced-in assessment is justified, with low fragility and a modest expectations gap, so the evidence does not point to extreme market expectations.
Recent financial performance remains in the top half of the industry, which supports the multi-year thesis, but PFS missed its latest quarter and has a run of consecutive earnings misses. Near-term miss risk is rated low, while wealth management expansion, income growth, and the quarterly dividend remain priorities to watch.
The near-term case weakens if PFS cuts guidance or if the Federal Reserve begins cutting rates, which the evidence says may weigh on financial stocks. Continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector bellwethers could support sector momentum, while PFS’s own execution remains the key company-specific test.
Over the next one to three years, PFS has an intact thesis supported by strong relative performance and cheap peer-relative valuation, but repeated earnings misses and volatile execution leave meaningful questions. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Provident Financial grew net income from $64M to $79M in one year. |
| Intact |
| net income falls below $79M in 2026-Q1 |
Net income: $78.147M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $79M net income in 2026-Q1. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 7, 202678,147,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Maintain PE ratio below peer median of 11.98 | A supporting condition in Provident Financial Services, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is PE <= 11.98. | Intact | PE rises above 12 without profit growth | P/E (TTM): 9.64x As of 2026-11-05; trailing twelve months. The target timing and basis require a separate assessment. Nov 5, 20269.6387 ratio · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Expand wealth management business after Lakeland Bancorp merger | The merger with Lakeland Bancorp boosts its wealth management business. | Intact | No growth or decline in wealth management revenue post-merger | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 5, 2026Last status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$2.52 → $2.58 · observed estimates
$0.98B → $0.98B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $2.52 | $983,360,200 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-07-25 | $2.52 | $983,360,200 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-07-26 | $2.52 | $983,360,200 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-07-27 | $2.52 | $972,597,700 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | $2.52 | $983,360,200 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-07-29 | $2.52 | $983,360,200 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-07-30 | $2.52 | $983,360,200 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-07-31 | $2.54 | $975,990,233 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | $2.54 | $975,990,233 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-02 | $2.55 | $990,013,400 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-03 | $2.55 | $978,137,100 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | $2.55 | $978,137,100 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | $2.55 | $978,137,100 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | $2.55 | $978,137,100 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | $2.55 | $978,137,100 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | $2.60 | $985,727,830 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-09 | $2.60 | $985,727,830 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-10 | $2.55 | $978,137,100 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | $2.60 | $985,727,830 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-13 | $2.55 | $978,137,100 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | $2.55 | $978,137,100 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | $2.55 | $978,137,100 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | $2.55 | $978,137,100 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | $2.55 | $978,137,100 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | $2.55 | $978,137,100 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | $2.55 | $978,137,100 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | $2.60 | $985,720,433 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-21 | $2.60 | $985,720,433 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-22 | $2.60 | $985,720,433 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-23 | $2.60 | $985,720,433 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-24 | $2.60 | $985,720,433 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-25 | $2.60 | $985,720,433 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-26 | $2.60 | $985,720,433 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-27 | $2.60 | $985,720,433 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-28 | $2.60 | $985,720,433 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-29 | $2.60 | $985,720,433 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-30 | $2.60 | $985,720,433 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-31 | $2.60 | $985,720,433 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-01 | $2.60 | $985,720,433 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-02 | $2.60 | $985,720,433 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-03 | $2.60 | $985,720,433 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-04 | $2.60 | $985,720,433 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-05 | $2.60 | $985,720,433 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-06 | $2.60 | $985,720,433 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-07 | $2.60 | $985,720,433 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-08 | $2.60 | $985,720,433 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-09 | $2.60 | $985,720,433 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-10 | $2.60 | $985,720,433 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-11 | $2.60 | $985,720,433 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-12 | $2.60 | $985,720,433 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-13 | $2.60 | $985,720,433 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-14 | $2.60 | $985,720,433 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-15 | $2.60 | $985,720,433 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-16 | $2.60 | $985,720,433 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | $2.60 | $985,720,433 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-18 | $2.60 | $985,720,433 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-19 | $2.60 | $985,720,433 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-20 | $2.60 | $985,720,433 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-21 | $2.60 | $985,720,433 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-22 | $2.60 | $985,720,433 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-23 | $2.60 | $985,720,433 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-24 | $2.59 | $984,853,767 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-25 | $2.59 | $984,853,767 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-26 | $2.59 | $984,853,767 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-27 | $2.59 | $984,853,767 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-28 | $2.59 | $984,853,767 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-29 | $2.59 | $984,853,767 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-30 | $2.59 | $984,853,767 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-01 | $2.59 | $984,853,767 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-02 | $2.59 | $984,461,233 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-03 | $2.59 | $984,461,233 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-04 | $2.59 | $984,461,233 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-05 | $2.59 | $984,461,233 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-06 | $2.59 | $984,461,233 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | $2.59 | $984,461,233 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $2.58 | $984,461,233 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $2.58 | $984,461,233 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $2.58 | $984,461,233 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $2.58 | $984,461,233 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $2.58 | $984,461,233 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $2.58 | $984,461,233 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $2.58 | $984,461,233 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $2.58 | $984,461,233 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $2.58 | $984,461,233 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $2.58 | $984,461,233 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $2.58 | $984,461,233 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $2.58 | $984,461,233 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $2.58 | $984,461,233 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $2.58 | $984,461,233 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $2.58 | $984,461,233 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $2.58 | $984,461,233 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $2.58 | $984,461,233 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $2.58 | $984,461,233 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $2.58 | $984,461,233 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $2.58 | $984,461,233 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $2.58 | $984,461,233 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $2.58 | $984,461,233 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $2.59 | $984,261,233 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $2.58 | $978,726,667 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $2.58 | $978,726,667 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $2.58 | $978,726,667 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-03 | $2.58 | $978,421,167 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-11-04 | $2.58 | $978,421,167 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-11-05 | $2.58 | $978,421,167 | 5 / 4 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.