Provident Financial Services, Inc. (PFS)
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$23.72+0.68%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · PFS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -12.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -18.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 6.0 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 219 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
PFS — debt issuance
Dated 2026-08-24
Other Events 6.50% Fixed-to-Floating Rate Subordinated Notes due 2036 On August 24, 2026, Provident Financial Services, Inc., a Delaware corporation (“we”, “us” or the “Company”), completed its previously announced underwritten public offering (the “Offering”) of $175,000,000 aggregate principal amount of its 6.50% Fixed-to-Floating Rate Subordinated Notes due 2036 (the “Notes”). The Notes were sold pursuant to the Company’s registration statement on Form S-3ASR (File No. 333-275213) (the “Re…
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows that the company is stable. It also shows they care about shareholders.
Watch forQuarterly cash dividend stays at $0.24. This shows careful use of capital.
Also watch forDividend is cut below $0.24. This raises worries about financial health.
Why it matters: Growth in AUM shows successful expansion and helps diversify revenue.
Supportive ifWealth management AUM reported above $4.6 billion in the next quarter.
Worry ifWealth management AUM remains below $4.5 billion in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Expanding the loan portfolio is key for increasing net income and overall growth.
Supportive ifTotal loans increase by more than 3% quarter over quarter in Q2 2026.
Worry ifTotal loans decline or grow less than 1% quarter over quarter in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: A strong loan pipeline indicates future revenue growth and solid demand for loans.
Supportive ifThe loan pipeline is over $3 billion. This shows strong lending activity.
Worry ifThe loan pipeline is below $3 billion. This suggests weaker demand.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$69 on $10,000 · ±0.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $203 loss on $10,000 · 2.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,450 loss on $10,000 · 14.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A drop in net income would signal weakening financial performance after a strong Q1.
Worry ifQ2 net income reported below $79 million.
Less concerning ifQ2 net income remains above $79 million.
Why it matters: The dividend shows that the company is stable. It also shows they care about shareholders.
Supportive ifThe company declares a dividend of $0.24 per share for Q2 2026.
Worry ifThe company cuts the dividend below $0.24 per share, raising concerns about cash flow.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth signals a potential slowdown in the financial sector. This could impact the stock's performance.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth falls below the median growth rate of 12% for the sector.
Less concerning ifQ2 revenue growth stays above the median growth rate of 12% for the sector.
Why it matters: Growth in wealth management revenue helps the company earn more and diversify.
Supportive ifWealth management revenue exceeds $8 million in Q3.
Worry ifWealth management revenue falls below $7 million in Q3.
Why it matters: An increase in dividends signals confidence in future earnings and cash flow. It reflects strong capital management.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of a dividend increase above $0.24 per share.
Worry ifNo increase in the dividend may show caution in spending money.
Why it matters: Growth in non-interest income shows a mix of revenue sources. It helps overall financial health.
Supportive ifNon-interest income grows by at least 10% YoY in Q3. This shows good revenue mix.
Worry ifNon-interest income grows less than 10% YoY in Q3. This suggests problems with revenue sources.
Why it matters: Strong loan growth indicates effective lending strategies and demand in the market. It reflects the bank's ability to expand its portfolio.
Supportive ifCommercial loan growth is over 9% in Q3. This supports the management's growth plan.
Worry ifCommercial loan growth is below 9% in Q3. This raises worries about demand and strategy.
Why it matters: A stable or better net interest margin helps profits and growth. It shows good management of interest income and costs.
Supportive ifQ3 net interest margin is above 3.40%. This shows good management of interest rates.
Worry ifQ3 net interest margin is below 3.40%. This suggests problems in keeping profits.
Why it matters: Strong net income growth shows good management and strong financial health. It means the company can grow profits even with challenges.
Supportive ifQ3 net income growth exceeds 15% year over year from $78.1 million in Q2 2026.
Worry ifQ3 net income growth falls below 10% year over year.
Why it matters: Strong loan growth shows demand for credit and good lending strategies. It shows the company can grow its portfolio.
Supportive ifTotal commercial loans increase by more than 8% annualized from $20.0 billion in Q2 2026.
Worry ifTotal commercial loans increase by less than 5% annualized.
Why it matters: Lower non-performing loans mean better asset quality and good risk management. It shows the company's strength in loan performance.
Supportive ifNon-performing loans fall below 0.60% of total loans.
Worry ifNon-performing loans rise above 0.75% of total loans.
Why it matters: High growth in wealth management revenue shows successful expansion. It shows the company can diversify its income.
Supportive ifWealth management revenue growth exceeds 20% year over year.
Worry ifWealth management revenue growth falls below 10% year over year.