Provident Financial Services, Inc. (PFS)
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$23.52+1.69%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · PFS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -13.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -21.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 8.3 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 230 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
PFS — earnings miss
Dated 2026-10-29
Results of Operation and Financial Condition. On October 28, 2026, Provident Financial Services, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release reporting its financial results for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this report and is being furnished to the SEC and shall not be deemed “filed” for any purpose.
Why it matters: Non-performing loans rose to 0.69% of loans in Q3. A further rise could point to weaker loan health.
Worry ifThe next report shows non-performing loans above 0.69% of total loans, or net charge-offs above 0.05%.
Less concerning ifNon-performing loans fall below 0.69% and net charge-offs stay at or below 0.05%.
Why it matters: The Q3 core efficiency ratio was 49.93%, close to 50%. A lower ratio would show costs stayed in check after conversion.
Supportive ifQ4 core efficiency ratio is below 50%, and core system conversion costs fall from Q3's $3.7 million.
Worry ifQ4 core efficiency ratio reaches 52% or higher. Or, core system conversion costs top $3.7 million.
Why it matters: The Q3 pipeline was large, but it slipped from $3.09 billion in Q2. New loans can support future income.
Supportive ifNew results show commercial loans growing at least 3% per year. The pipeline is at or above $3.03 billion.
Worry ifCommercial loan growth turns negative, or the pipeline falls below $3.03 billion in the next report.
Why it matters: Core margin rose to 3.16% in Q3. Another increase would support the bank's spread growth story.
Supportive ifQ4 core net interest margin is above 3.16% and net interest income grows year over year.
Worry ifQ4 core net interest margin falls below 3.16% or net interest income declines year over year.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$59 on $10,000 · ±0.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $184 loss on $10,000 · 1.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,450 loss on $10,000 · 14.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.