Parker Hannifin (PH)
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-09-04
$962.59-0.20%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · PH
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 21.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 7.1% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 14.3 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 63 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
PH — capital allocation — Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balan…
Dated 2026-08-13
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. As previously disclosed, on December 10, 2025, Parker entered into (i) a 364-Day Term Loan Agreement (the “364-Day Credit Agreement”) with Barclays Bank PLC, as administrative agent, and various financial institutions named therein as lenders, which 364-Day Credit Agreement provides for a delayed draw term loan facility in the aggregate principal amount of $5.25 billion (the “364…
Why it matters: Improved sales growth would show progress in management's goal to increase sales. It could signal a stronger demand environment.
Supportive ifQ2 sales growth exceeds 5% compared to Q1.
Worry ifQ2 sales growth remains below 2% compared to Q1.
Why it matters: Sales growth above 7% shows strong demand and supports the company's growth outlook.
Supportive ifQ4 sales growth above 7% compared to the previous year.
Worry ifQ4 sales growth falls below 7% year over year.
Why it matters: High order rates suggest sales will grow. They also show steady demand in all areas.
Supportive ifOrder rates reported at 9% or higher in the next quarter.
Worry ifOrder rates drop below 7% in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Management aims for adjusted EPS of $34.25 to $35.25. Confirmation signals strong earnings growth.
Supportive ifFiscal 2027 adjusted EPS lands within the guided range of $34.25 to $35.25.
Worry ifAdjusted EPS is below $34.25. This shows weaker earnings growth.
Why it matters: Achieving mid-teens EPS growth shows the company's strong earnings trend. It confirms management's growth strategy.
Supportive ifQ4 adjusted EPS growth of at least 14% compared to the prior year.
Worry ifQ4 adjusted EPS growth below 14% year over year.
Why it matters: Management wants an operating margin of 24.5% to 24.9% in fiscal 2027. Confirmation means they are managing costs well.
Supportive ifSegment operating margin is 24.5% or higher in fiscal 2027.
Worry ifSegment operating margin is below 24.5%. This shows possible cost issues.
Why it matters: Keeping or raising EPS guidance shows strong earnings growth and trust from investors.
Supportive ifEPS guidance for Q4 remains at or above $27.10.
Worry ifEPS guidance drops below $27.10.
Why it matters: A growing backlog shows strong future demand. This helps revenue growth.
Supportive ifBacklog reported at or above $12.5 billion in Q4.
Worry ifBacklog is below $12 billion. This suggests demand is weakening.
Why it matters: New EPS guidance would show if management is on track to achieve mid-teens EPS growth. It reflects confidence in future earnings.
Watch forManagement raises EPS growth guidance to above 15% for the year.
Also watch forManagement lowers EPS growth guidance below 10% for the year.
Why it matters: A growing backlog shows strong future demand in aerospace, an important area.
Supportive ifAerospace systems have a backlog of over $8.5 billion.
Worry ifAerospace systems backlog is less than or equal to $8.5 billion.
Why it matters: Management targets 5.5% to 8.5% organic sales growth for fiscal 2027. Meeting this shows strong demand.
Supportive ifOrganic sales growth reported at 5.5% or higher in fiscal 2027.
Worry ifOrganic sales growth is below 5.5%. This shows weaker market conditions.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$115 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $229 loss on $10,000 · 2.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,952 loss on $10,000 · 19.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.