PHINIA, Inc. (PHIN)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$69.04+0.91%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · PHIN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -19.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 3.3% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 22.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 32 industry peers
PHIN — earnings miss
Dated 2026-07-30
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On July 30, 2026 , PHINIA Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended June 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The earnings call presentation to which the attached press release refers is available at investors.phinia.com, but it is not incorporated herein by reference. The information contained in this
Why it matters: A lower margin shows less profit and more problems in operations.
Worry ifEBITDA margin is under 13.7%.
Less concerning ifAdjusted EBITDA margin is at or above 13.7%.
Why it matters: Updates to free cash flow guidance indicate how well PHINIA is managing cash. This affects future investments.
Watch forGuidance for adjusted free cash flow increases to above $240 million.
Also watch forGuidance for adjusted free cash flow decreases below $200 million.
Why it matters: More cash flow helps growth plans and shows strong business health.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations exceeds $60 million in Q2 2026.
Worry ifCash flow from operations stays below $50 million in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: New contracts in alternative fuels can boost revenue and show market expansion.
Supportive ifPHINIA announces a new contract for alternative fuel systems in Q2 2026.
Worry ifNo new contracts in alternative fuels are announced in Q2 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$156 on $10,000 · ±1.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $349 loss on $10,000 · 3.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,154 loss on $10,000 · 21.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Winning new contracts here would show that PHINIA is growing its product range.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of at least two new contracts in alternative fuels within the next quarter.
Worry ifNo new contracts in alternative fuels were announced. This shows no growth in this area.
Why it matters: Better operating income means PHIN is controlling costs. This is important for making money long-term.
Supportive ifOperating income goes up from the last quarter.
Worry ifOperating income goes down from the last quarter.
Why it matters: A decline would indicate potential cash flow issues, affecting growth plans.
Worry ifCash from operations reported lower than the previous year.
Less concerning ifCash from operations reported higher than the previous year.
Why it matters: New contracts would support PHINIA's growth plan. They would boost revenue from key markets.
Supportive ifA major new contract in alternative fuels was announced. It is worth over $50 million.
Worry ifNo big new contracts in alternative fuels were announced in the next quarter.
Why it matters: A negative trend in sector revenue growth could signal broader challenges. This may impact investor confidence in PHINIA's growth prospects.
Watch forSector revenue growth reported as negative year over year.
Also watch forSector revenue growth reported as positive year over year.
Why it matters: Sales growth above 2% would indicate strong demand and align with management's growth goals.
Supportive ifQ3 net sales growth exceeds 2% year-over-year.
Worry ifQ3 net sales growth falls below 2% year-over-year.
Why it matters: Closing this deal would improve PHINIA's manufacturing and help it grow.
Supportive ifThe deal will close in Q4 2026. This will happen after all approvals are granted.
Worry ifThe deal may be delayed or may not get the needed approvals.
Why it matters: A higher adjusted EBITDA margin shows better cost control and more profit.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA margin rises to 14% or more in Q3 2026.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA margin stays below 13.5% in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Meeting this cash flow target shows strong operations. It also shows good financial strength.
Supportive ifAdjusted free cash flow exceeds $210 million in 2026.
Worry ifAdjusted free cash flow falls below $200 million in 2026.