Phunware Inc (PHUN)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
$1.79+1.13%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · PHUN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -48.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -7.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 40.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate) and has been missing across recent quarters. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 36 industry peers
PHUN — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-06
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 6, 2026, Phunware, Inc. (the “Company,” "we," "us," or "our") issued a press release announcing its financial results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2026. A copy of the press release issued concerning the foregoing results is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The information contained herein, including Exhibit 99.1, is furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 o…
Why it matters: Cash fell from $97.9 million in March to $92.1 million in June. Another drop would show the cost of ongoing investment and losses.
Worry ifCash and cash equivalents are below $92.1 million in the November 5 Q3 report.
Less concerning ifCash and cash equivalents are at or above $92.1 million in the Q3 report.
Why it matters: Phunware used $8.5 million of cash in operations in the first half. More use would add pressure while the company invests and reports losses.
Worry ifThe Q3 report shows operating cash use above $8.5 million for the first nine months of 2026.
Less concerning ifThe Q3 report shows operating cash use at or below $8.5 million for the first nine months.
Why it matters: Q2 revenue was $0.8 million, but a customer ended its contract early. A higher Q3 result would show stronger sales.
Supportive ifThe November 5 results show Q3 revenue above $0.8 million. Year-over-year growth did not come from an early contract end.
Worry ifQ3 revenue is $0.8 million or less, or falls year over year.
Why it matters: AI Concierge is live, and Phunware signed an agreement with a leading Hawaii resort. Another named customer would show sales beyond that deal.
Supportive ifPhunware announces a new AI Concierge deal with a named hotel customer.
Worry ifNo new AI Concierge customer agreement is announced by the next two earnings reports.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$103 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $436 loss on $10,000 · 4.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,220 loss on $10,000 · 32.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.