Phunware Inc (PHUN)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
$2.08-0.48%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · PHUN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -39.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -7.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 31.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate) and has been missing across recent quarters. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 119 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
PHUN — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-06
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 6, 2026, Phunware, Inc. (the “Company,” "we," "us," or "our") issued a press release announcing its financial results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2026. A copy of the press release issued concerning the foregoing results is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The information contained herein, including Exhibit 99.1, is furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 o…
Why it matters: The webinar will share news about new products and the company's plans.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of the investor webinar date and details within the next few weeks.
Worry ifNo announcement of the investor webinar date by the end of August.
Why it matters: A successful rollout will prove the company's plans and product work.
Supportive ifManagement says they are making good progress with Product 2.0 rollout.
Worry ifManagement reports delays or problems with the rollout of Product 2.0.
Why it matters: Trends in net loss show how well cost management and investments are working.
Worry ifNet loss goes down each quarter, showing better financial health.
Less concerning ifNet loss increases quarter over quarter beyond $6 million.
Why it matters: New contracts would signal growth in software services. This aligns with management's expansion goals.
Supportive ifNew software contracts or partnerships are announced.
Worry ifNo new contracts are announced or current contracts are canceled.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$158 on $10,000 · ±1.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $484 loss on $10,000 · 4.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,771 loss on $10,000 · 47.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Finishing this will improve products. It will also help the 2.0 Strategy.
Supportive ifThey said product development is done. New features are now available.
Worry ifDelays or setbacks in product development with Build Something LLC.
Why it matters: Better operating income means fewer losses. This helps build investor trust.
Supportive ifQ2 operating income improves beyond a loss of $3.5M.
Worry ifOperating income worsens or stays above a loss of $4.0M.
Why it matters: Ongoing negative cash flow shows problems with managing expenses and cash burn.
Worry ifOperating cash flow remains negative, worse than -$2.7M.
Less concerning ifOperating cash flow turns positive or less negative than -$2.7M.
Why it matters: Better cash flow shows management is controlling cash burn. This is critical for future stability.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations improves to less than -$2.5M.
Worry ifCash flow from operations worsens or stays worse than -$2.7M.
Why it matters: High retention rates show customers are happy. This means Phunware's products are effective.
Supportive ifCustomer retention rate was above 95% for Q3.
Worry ifCustomer retention rate drops below 90% for Q3.
Why it matters: This growth shows strong demand for Phunware's AI products. It supports its 2.0 Strategy.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue growth exceeds 20% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth is below 10% year over year.
Why it matters: Stable leaders are important. They help set goals and keep investor trust.
Watch forAnnouncement of a new permanent CEO or stable leadership team.
Also watch forMore leaders leaving or problems in leadership roles.
Why it matters: Good engagement numbers show that Phunware's AI products work well.
Watch forEngagement metrics for AI Concierge show a 50% increase from the previous quarter.
Also watch forEngagement metrics for AI Concierge decline by 10% or more from the previous quarter.
Why it matters: New agreements can signal growth in technology services. This is key for future revenue.
Supportive ifNew software contracts or partnerships beyond the MSSA with Build Something LLC are announced.
Worry ifNo new software deals announced. This shows slow growth efforts.
Why it matters: If revenue growth slows, it could indicate trouble in Phunware's market position. This is critical for future performance.
Worry ifPhunware's revenue growth falls below the sector median.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth remains above the sector median.
Why it matters: Stabilizing revenue growth signals that the 2.0 Strategy is gaining traction. It shows product demand is improving.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue grew more than 20% compared to last year. This shows strong product demand.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth is under 10% compared to last year. This shows problems with product adoption.
Why it matters: Strong revenue growth shows that the 2.0 Strategy and products are working well.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue growth is over 20% from last year. This shows strong demand for AI Concierge.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth falls below 10% year over year, suggesting weak product adoption.
Why it matters: A drop in retention may mean problems with product satisfaction. This could hurt future revenue.
Worry ifCustomer retention rate is below 90%. This suggests some customers are unhappy with the AI Concierge.
Less concerning ifCustomer retention is above 95%. This shows that customers are engaged with the product.
Why it matters: A smaller net loss shows better cost management and efficiency.
Supportive ifNet loss in Q3 is under $4 million. This shows better financial performance.
Worry ifNet loss is still above $5 million. This shows ongoing financial problems.
Why it matters: New product announcements may boost interest and sales. This would help the company's growth.
Supportive ifA press release or live demo of a new product at an investor event gets good media coverage.
Worry ifNo new product announcements or demos happen. This may mean delays in product development.