Polaris (PII)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - Recreational VehiclesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$67.70+7.63%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - Recreational VehiclesSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · PII
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 24.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 1.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 22.6 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 3 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
PII — CEO transition
Dated 2026-06-22
Director — Dustin J. Semach: Appointment of a new director to the Board.
Why it matters: Polaris raised its 2026 adjusted EPS range to $3.50–$3.60. Results below $3.50 would miss the new low end.
Worry ifThe 2026 report shows adjusted EPS below $3.50.
Less concerning ifThe 2026 report shows adjusted EPS of $3.50 or more.
Why it matters: Polaris tied about $1.09 of its 2026 EPS range to tariff refunds. Less relief could leave less earnings support.
Worry ifThe final 2026 results show tariff refunds that add less than $1.09 to adjusted EPS.
Less concerning ifThe final 2026 results show tariff refunds that add about $1.09 or more to adjusted EPS.
Why it matters: Q3 adjusted gross margin rose year over year, helped by price and lower costs. A drop below 21.2% would weaken that progress.
Worry ifQ4 adjusted gross margin is below 21.2%.
Less concerning ifQ4 adjusted gross margin is 21.2% or higher.
Why it matters: The sector read says consumer revenue is shrinking, while Polaris sales grew 11% in Q3. Retail sales data can test demand strength.
Watch forThe November 17 retail report shows U.S. retail sales growth, and Polaris next reports positive year-over-year sales growth.
Also watch forThe November 17 retail report shows falling U.S. retail sales, and Polaris next reports flat or lower year-over-year sales.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$139 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $425 loss on $10,000 · 4.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,420 loss on $10,000 · 34.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.