Alpine Income Property Trust, Inc. (PINE)
NYSEReal EstateReit - RetailSnapshot 2026-11-04
$16.89+1.56%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - RetailSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · PINE
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -27.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 14.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to real (inflation-adjusted) rates and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 41.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 16 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
PINE — capital allocation — Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balan…
Dated 2026-10-29
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. As previously disclosed by Alpine Income Property Trust, Inc. (the “Company”), on February 4, 2026, the Company, Alpine Income Property OP, LP, as borrower (the “Borrower”), and certain subsidiaries of the Borrower entered into an Amended and Restated Credit Agreement with Truist Bank, N.A., as administrative agent (“Truist”), and certain other lenders named therein (the “Amended…
Why it matters: Nearly all properties were leased at the end of Q3. A drop could point to tenant exits or trouble keeping rent in place.
Worry ifThe next quarterly report shows that less than 99.5% of properties are occupied.
Less concerning ifThe next quarterly report shows that 99.5% or more of properties are occupied.
Why it matters: The new loan and credit line add funding room for deals. If they fail to close, PINE has less room to fund planned purchases.
Supportive ifA company filing confirms the $100 million term loan and $75 million credit line increase closed.
Worry ifA company filing says either financing commitment was withdrawn or did not close by year-end 2026.
Why it matters: The common dividend rose to $0.320 per share in Q3. Cash earnings must keep pace for that payment level to last.
Worry ifThe 2026 year-end report shows AFFO per share at least covers the full-year common dividend per share.
Less concerning ifThe 2026 year-end report shows AFFO per share below the full-year common dividend per share.
Why it matters: Management raised its investment range as deal activity grew. Meeting the low end would show the growth plan stayed on track.
Supportive ifThe 2026 year-end report shows at least $310 million in closed investment volume.
Worry ifThe year-end report shows less than $310 million in closed investment volume.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$91 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $255 loss on $10,000 · 2.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,570 loss on $10,000 · 25.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: AFFO per share tracks cash earnings from the property business. The Q4 result will test the higher full-year outlook.
Supportive ifThe 2026 report shows AFFO per diluted share of at least $2.20.
Worry ifThe 2026 report shows AFFO per diluted share below $2.20.
Why it matters: The deal adds 13 leased properties and supports the company’s growth plan. A delay or failed close would leave this year’s deal volume lower.
Supportive ifA company filing or release confirms the 13-property purchase closed in Q4 2026. It cost about $117.3 million.
Worry ifThe deal is terminated, or it has not closed by year-end 2026.