Alpine Income Property Trust, Inc. (PINE)
NYSEReal EstateReit - RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
$19.65+0.87%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · PINE
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 0.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 14.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to real (inflation-adjusted) rates and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 14.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 21 industry peers
PINE — earnings miss
Dated 2026-04-23
of this Current Report, including Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2 is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section. The information in this Current Report shall not be incorporated by reference into any registration statement or other document pursuant to the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), or the Exchange Act, unless i…
Why it matters: Reaching this target would show effective asset management and support cash flow.
Supportive ifTotal sales volume for 2026 hits or goes over $30 million.
Worry ifTotal disposition volume falls below $30 million for the year.
Why it matters: Surpassing this revenue shows strong performance and growth.
Supportive ifQ3 total revenues are above $20 million.
Worry ifQ3 total revenues are below $18 million.
Why it matters: Reaching this target means the company is growing. It shows management believes in the market.
Supportive ifInvestment activity reaches or exceeds $170 million by the end of 2026.
Worry ifInvestment activity falls below $170 million by the end of 2026.
Why it matters: A dividend increase would show strong financial health and a commitment to value.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of a dividend increase from $0.32 per share.
Worry ifNo increase in the dividend from the current $0.32 per share.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$100 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $218 loss on $10,000 · 2.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,317 loss on $10,000 · 13.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: This would show the company can meet its higher investment goals for 2026.
Supportive ifQ3 investment activity was $85 million or more.
Worry ifIn Q3, investment activity was less than $70 million.
Why it matters: More investment guidance shows trust in growth and spending plans.
Supportive ifManagement says they will invest more than $170M.
Worry ifManagement says they will invest less than $170M.
Why it matters: Changes in volume guidance can show shifts in spending plans.
Watch forManagement says they will handle more than $60M in volume.
Also watch forManagement cuts volume guidance to under $30M.
Why it matters: Meeting this target shows good performance and supports growth. It shows smart use of money.
Supportive ifFFO per diluted share reaches or exceeds $1.10 for the full year 2026.
Worry ifFFO per diluted share falls below $1.10 for the full year 2026.
Why it matters: Missing earnings again would cause concerns about how the company is doing.
Worry ifQ2 earnings report shows a miss similar to the previous quarter.
Less concerning ifQ2 earnings report shows a beat compared to expectations.
Why it matters: This would support the upward trend in earnings and confidence in the EPS guidance.
Supportive ifQ3 EPS reported at $0.20 or higher.
Worry ifQ3 EPS reported below $0.15.
Why it matters: Maintaining the dividend signals strong cash flow and supports investor confidence. A cut could signal financial stress.
Watch forThe quarterly common stock dividend stays at $0.32 in the next quarter.
Also watch forThe quarterly common stock dividend is reduced from $0.32 in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Higher revenue growth in the sector could help Alpine do better.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth speeds up to above 4%.
Worry ifSector revenue growth slows down to below 4%.
Why it matters: Meeting this goal shows progress toward management's volume plans.
Supportive ifTotal dispositions for Q3 reach or exceed $30 million.
Worry ifTotal dispositions for Q3 are less than $10 million.
Why it matters: Confirming the EPS guidance shows strong earnings growth.
Supportive ifManagement confirms EPS guidance of $0.81 to $0.84 for 2026.
Worry ifManagement cuts EPS guidance to less than $0.80.