Douglas Dynamics, Inc. (PLOW)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-09-04
$42.30+2.42%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · PLOW
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 25.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 10.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 14.4 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 63 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
PLOW — General Counsel transition
Dated 2025-10-31
Director — Jennifer I. Ansberry, Bradley M. Nelson: Two new directors were appointed to the Board of Directors.
Why it matters: Snowfall affects demand for snow and ice control products. This impacts revenue for Work Truck Attachments.
Supportive ifSnowfall in core markets exceeds the 10-year average by 10% or more.
Worry ifSnowfall in core markets is below the 10-year average.
Why it matters: A drop in operating income shows cost management issues. This could hurt long-term growth.
Worry ifOperating income was below $35.4 million in Q3.
Less concerning ifOperating income was at or above $35.4 million in Q3.
Why it matters: Positive revenue growth in the sector may show recovery. This could help Douglas Dynamics.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth turns positive year over year.
Worry ifSector revenue growth remains negative year over year.
Why it matters: A drop could show weak demand from businesses. This would hurt overall performance.
Worry ifWork Truck Solutions segment sales fall year over year by more than 5%.
Less concerning ifSales in the Work Truck Solutions segment grow year over year by more than 5%.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$123 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $306 loss on $10,000 · 3.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,491 loss on $10,000 · 24.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Snowfall affects how many work truck attachments are sold. This impacts sales.
Supportive ifSnowfall levels in the Northeast and Midwest exceed the 10-year average by 20%.
Worry ifSnowfall is lower than the 10-year average. This reduces product demand.
Why it matters: Changes in revenue guidance show that management is confident. They also show market conditions.
Supportive ifManagement raises revenue guidance to more than $795 million for 2026.
Worry ifManagement lowers revenue guidance to less than $750 million for 2026.
Why it matters: Trends in operating income show how well the company is doing. Falling income can worry investors about costs.
Worry ifOperating income rises to more than $10 million in Q2.
Less concerning ifOperating income falls below $9 million in Q2.
Why it matters: The dividend shows that management believes in cash flow and profit. Stability builds trust with investors.
Watch forManagement raises the dividend per share to more than $0.30.
Also watch forManagement announces a cut in the dividend per share below $0.30.
Why it matters: Strong demand from cities helps overall revenue. It also makes up for weak commercial sales.
Supportive ifMunicipal demand stays strong. It helps the Solutions segment perform well.
Worry ifMunicipal demand drops a lot. This hurts overall revenue.
Why it matters: This split indicates strong demand and effective execution for the Attachments segment. It will show if the company can maintain momentum from Q2.
Supportive ifPre-season shipments reported close to a 50% split between Q2 and Q3.
Worry ifPre-season shipments were mostly for Q2. They were below 40% for Q3.
Why it matters: Strong municipal demand can help stabilize revenue amid weaker commercial sales. It shows how well the company is managing its segments.
Watch forMunicipal demand is strong and helps offset drops in commercial sales.
Also watch forMunicipal demand is weak and does not help offset drops in commercial sales.
Why it matters: Strong demand from cities helps overall performance. It also offsets issues in commercial markets.
Supportive ifDemand from cities is strong. It supports performance close to record levels.
Worry ifDemand from cities weakens. This leads to lower performance in the overall segment.
Why it matters: Strong sales growth in this segment indicates continued demand for snow and ice control products.
Supportive ifWork Truck Attachments sales grow year over year by more than 15%.
Worry ifSales growth in Work Truck Attachments is less than 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Higher EBITDA guidance shows strong demand and good operations. It shows management's trust in growth.
Supportive ifEBITDA guidance is now over $135 million.
Worry ifEBITDA guidance stays at or below $135 million.