Douglas Dynamics, Inc. (PLOW)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-11-04
$38.12+3.98%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · PLOW
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 23.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 4.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 19.1 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 39 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
PLOW — earnings miss
Dated 2026-11-03
Results of Operations and Financial Condition . On November 2, 2026, Douglas Dynamics, Inc. issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended September 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. The information in this
Why it matters: The report can show whether preseason shipments and the raised outlook remain on track. Segment sales and profit will help explain the result.
Watch forThe November 2 report keeps 2026 net sales guidance at $765 million or more. It also keeps adjusted EBITDA guidance at $120 million or more.
Also watch forThe November 2 report cuts the $765 million net sales floor or the $120 million adjusted EBITDA floor.
Why it matters: The 2026 outlook assumes average snowfall in core markets in Q4. Less snow could weaken demand for snow and ice products.
Worry ifQ4 snowfall in core markets is reported near the average level assumed in the 2026 outlook.
Less concerning ifQ4 snowfall in key markets is far below average, and demand for snow and ice products is weaker.
Why it matters: Management planned to ship preseason orders nearly evenly in Q2 and Q3. A shortfall in Q3 could put the annual outlook at risk.
Worry ifQ3 shipments leave full-year preseason shipments close to the planned 50% Q2 and 50% Q3 split.
Less concerning ifQ3 shipments fall far short of the planned split, or managers report late dealer deliveries.
Why it matters: Management raised its 2026 outlook after strong preseason orders. Meeting the new range would support its record-results plan.
Supportive ifFor 2026, net sales reach at least $765 million and adjusted EBITDA reaches at least $120 million.
Worry ifFor 2026, net sales fall below $765 million or adjusted EBITDA falls below $120 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$107 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $313 loss on $10,000 · 3.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,236 loss on $10,000 · 32.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.