Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Plug Power, Inc. (PLUG)
NASDAQIndustrialsElectrical Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$1.46+3.55%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsElectrical Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for PLUG yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Improve free cash flow from negative to positive | A supporting condition in Plug Power, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is free cash flow > 0. | Broken | Free cash flow remains negative after 2027 | Free cash flow: $-100.368M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: free cash flow > 0. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 10, 2026-100,368,000 USD · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk turnaround-style business, not a proven durable compounder: it remains loss-making, and management execution has been volatile. The thesis is in a watch state, with recent momentum improving but company quality weakening.
The evidence describes PLUG as cheap versus peers, while also showing a meaningful expectations gap and medium confidence in the valuation read. The priced-in tag is justified, and fragility is low, but this does not remove the risks tied to ongoing losses and execution.
Near term, revenue and cost measures have improved: second-quarter revenue rose from the first quarter, operating expenses fell year over year, and gross loss narrowed from the first quarter. Positive EBITDAS in the fourth quarter remains a goal, not an achieved result, and liquidity improvement is still in progress; recent results are weak relative to the industry, with elevated sector and execution risks.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on PLUG sustaining revenue growth, converting its commercial pipeline, improving margins, and delivering positive EBITDAS in the fourth quarter of 2026. Guidance credibility and liquidity actions also matter: a reversal of recently raised guidance would damage confidence, while results from sector bellwethers could strengthen or weaken the broader industry backdrop.
For the next 1 to 3 years, PLUG shows early operating progress, but its long-term thesis remains unproven because losses, management volatility, and sector headwinds leave delivery as the main test. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Plug Power, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is positive operating income. |
| Broken |
| Operating income remains negative after 2027 |
Operating income: $-64.108M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: positive operating income. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 10, 2026-64,108,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve positive EBITDAS by Q4 2026 | A primary condition in Plug Power, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is positive EBITDAS. | Broken | EBITDAS remains negative after Q4 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Sustain revenue growth near 20% per year | A supporting condition in Plug Power, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=19.6% YoY revenue growth. | Broken | Revenue growth falls below 15% YoY next year | Revenue growth: 2.49% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=19.6% YoY revenue growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 10, 20262.48836 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.16 → $-0.16 · observed estimates
$0.96B → $0.98B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.16 | $964,830,697 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.16 | $964,830,697 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.17 | $964,975,433 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.16 | $962,543,180 | 7 / 18 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.16 | $962,543,180 | 7 / 18 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.16 | $962,543,180 | 7 / 18 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.17 | $964,975,433 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.17 | $964,975,433 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.17 | $964,975,433 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.16 | $962,543,180 | 7 / 18 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.17 | $964,975,433 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.17 | $964,975,433 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.17 | $964,975,433 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.16 | $962,543,180 | 7 / 18 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-0.17 | $964,975,433 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.16 | $962,504,930 | 7 / 18 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.16 | $962,504,930 | 7 / 18 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.16 | $962,504,930 | 7 / 18 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.17 | $964,975,433 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.17 | $964,975,433 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.17 | $964,975,433 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.17 | $964,975,433 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.17 | $964,975,433 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.17 | $964,975,433 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.17 | $964,975,433 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.17 | $964,975,433 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.16 | $968,998,412 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.16 | $970,629,695 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.16 | $970,629,695 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.16 | $970,629,695 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.16 | $970,629,695 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.16 | $969,523,430 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.16 | $969,523,430 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.16 | $969,523,430 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.16 | $969,523,430 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.16 | $969,523,430 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.16 | $969,523,430 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.16 | $969,523,430 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.16 | $969,523,430 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.16 | $969,523,430 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.16 | $969,523,430 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.16 | $969,523,430 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.16 | $969,523,430 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.16 | $969,523,430 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.16 | $969,523,430 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.16 | $969,523,430 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.16 | $969,523,430 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.16 | $969,523,430 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.16 | $969,523,430 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.16 | $969,523,430 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.16 | $969,523,430 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.16 | $969,523,430 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.16 | $969,523,430 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.16 | $969,523,430 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.16 | $969,559,365 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.16 | $969,559,365 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.16 | $969,559,365 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.16 | $969,559,365 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.16 | $969,559,365 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.16 | $969,559,365 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.16 | $969,559,365 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.16 | $969,559,365 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.16 | $969,559,365 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.16 | $969,559,365 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.16 | $969,559,365 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.16 | $969,559,365 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.16 | $969,559,365 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.16 | $969,559,365 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.16 | $969,560,839 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.16 | $969,560,839 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.16 | $972,470,497 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.16 | $972,470,497 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.16 | $972,470,497 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.16 | $972,229,944 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.16 | $972,229,944 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.16 | $972,229,944 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.16 | $972,229,944 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.16 | $972,229,944 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.16 | $972,229,944 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.16 | $972,229,944 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.16 | $972,229,944 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.16 | $972,229,944 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.16 | $973,802,300 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.16 | $973,802,300 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.16 | $973,802,300 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.16 | $976,497,932 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.16 | $976,497,932 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.16 | $976,497,932 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.16 | $976,497,932 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.16 | $976,497,932 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.16 | $976,497,932 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.16 | $976,497,932 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.16 | $976,497,932 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.16 | $976,497,932 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.16 | $976,497,932 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.16 | $976,497,932 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.16 | $976,497,932 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.16 | $976,497,932 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.16 | $976,497,932 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.16 | $976,497,932 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.16 | $976,497,932 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.16 | $976,497,932 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.16 | $976,497,932 | 9 / 13 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 11 Hold · 3 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 9, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.