NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryIndustrial DistributionSnapshot 2026-07-07
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 12 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $209.62. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Above average on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $210 POOL trades at 19× p/e, below its 23× p/e peer median. Our $218 fair value sits above the price. It's a high-confidence read. Analysts target $210–$240. Not investment advice.
$210.00 – $240.00 (median $235.00) · 3 analysts · as of 2026-07-06
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $11.84/sh owner earnings.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $235.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $206.08 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $189.82 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| graham number | 12M | $87.05 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 12M | $251.82 | 23.2 | 10.87 | Mgmt | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $323.68 | 19.5 | 16.61 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $250.89 | 23.2 | 10.83 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $306.50 | 2.1 | 146.99 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $339.94 | 31.4 | 10.83 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $64.25 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $218.79 | 20.2 | 10.83 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $251.54 | 23.2 | 10.86 | Triangulated | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 3Y | $311.91 | 23.2 | 13.46 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $262.50 | 19.5 | 13.47 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $294.81 | 23.2 | 12.73 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $341.31 | 2.1 | 163.68 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $399.44 | 31.4 | 12.73 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $257.08 | 20.2 | 12.73 | Analyst | medium |
| Mgmt guidance | 5Y | $359.74 | 23.2 | 15.53 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $228.28 | 19.5 | 11.71 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $316.24 | 23.2 | 13.65 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $366.13 | 2.1 | 175.58 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 5Y | $428.48 | 31.4 | 13.65 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $275.78 | 20.2 | 13.65 | Analyst | medium |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
