Pool Corporation (POOL)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryIndustrial - DistributionSnapshot 2026-11-05
$216.66-1.19%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryIndustrial - DistributionSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · POOL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 35.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 3.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the US dollar and real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 32.7 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 10 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
POOL — capital allocation — Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balan…
Dated 2026-08-28
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information provided in
Why it matters: The company returned $338.1 million through dividends and share buybacks in the first nine months. More returns would show that capital return continued into year-end.
Supportive ifFull-year dividends and share buybacks top $338.1 million. Total debt does not rise above its September 30 level of $1.2 billion.
Worry ifFull-year dividends and share buybacks are $338.1 million or less, or total debt rises above $1.2 billion.
Why it matters: Q3 sales grew 4%, up from 2% in Q2. Growth above 2% would show that the recent pickup continued.
Supportive ifQ4 net sales rise more than 2% year over year, with growth from maintenance or building materials.
Worry ifQ4 net sales growth is 2% or less, or turns negative year over year.
Why it matters: Management confirmed adjusted EPS guidance of $10.87 to $11.17. A result below the floor would miss that range.
Worry if2026 adjusted diluted EPS is below $10.87, or the company cuts its guidance floor below $10.87.
Less concerning if2026 adjusted diluted EPS lands at or above $10.87, within the confirmed range.
Why it matters: Q3 gross margin fell to 29.0% from 29.6%. A further drop would add to pressure on profit as sales grow.
Worry ifQ4 gross margin is below 29.0% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ4 gross margin is at least 29.0% and does not fall year over year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$124 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $305 loss on $10,000 · 3.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,287 loss on $10,000 · 42.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.