Pool Corporation (POOL)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryIndustrial - DistributionSnapshot 2026-09-04
$185.22+0.62%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryIndustrial - DistributionSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · POOL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 0.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 3.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 3.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 18 industry peers
POOL — capital allocation — Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balan…
Dated 2026-08-28
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information provided in
Why it matters: Changes in leadership can change company strategy and execution. This affects growth.
Watch forNew CEO John Watwood uses successful strategies that lead to better sales growth.
Also watch forSales growth stops or falls under new leadership.
Why it matters: Keeping EPS guidance shows stable earnings. It shows management believes in their performance.
Supportive ifManagement says 2026 diluted EPS will be between $10.66 and $11.17.
Worry ifManagement lowers 2026 diluted EPS to less than $10.66.
Why it matters: Updates on the share buyback show management cares about capital use. This can change stock supply.
Supportive ifManagement says they will increase the share buyback program to over $600 million.
Worry ifNo updates or a reduction in the share repurchase program.
Why it matters: High inventory can mean too much stock, which hurts cash flow and efficiency.
Worry ifInventory levels decrease by at least 10% by the end of Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifInventory stays the same or goes up beyond current levels.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$154 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $302 loss on $10,000 · 3.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,724 loss on $10,000 · 47.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The new CEO's leadership style may affect company growth and execution. This is key for future performance.
Watch forSales and earnings improve after the transition.
Also watch forSales and earnings fall or stay the same after the transition.
Why it matters: Changes in inventory can show demand and efficiency. This affects cash flow and profits.
Watch forInventory levels drop year over year, showing strong sales.
Also watch forInventory levels are up compared to last year. This suggests weak demand.
Why it matters: Improving cash flow is key for operational stability and growth. It can boost investor confidence.
Supportive ifManagement reports cash flow increased during the next earnings call.
Worry ifManagement reports no improvement or a decline in cash flow during the next earnings call.
Why it matters: A new CEO can change company direction and strategy. This affects future performance.
Watch forNew CEO outlines a clear strategic vision that aligns with growth goals.
Also watch forThe new CEO does not share a clear plan. This causes uncertainty for the company.
Why it matters: This will show how the leadership change affects company performance. Investors will look for signs of strategic direction.
Watch forQ2 2026 earnings show net sales growth above 6% year over year.
Also watch forQ2 2026 earnings report shows net sales growth below 3% year over year.
Why it matters: Changes in inventory can show demand trends and efficiency. High inventory may mean weak sales.
Worry ifInventory levels rise by more than 4% compared to last quarter.
Less concerning ifInventory levels fall or stay below a 4% increase.
Why it matters: Confirming the EPS guidance shows confidence in earnings stability. It impacts investor trust and stock performance.
Supportive ifFull-year 2026 EPS lands within the range of $10.87 to $11.17.
Worry ifEPS guidance is revised down to below $10.50.
Why it matters: John B. Watwood's actions will show how he plans to lead the company after the transition.
Supportive ifLook for public announcements or press releases from the new CEO about plans.
Worry ifNo new plans were announced in the first three months of his time.
Why it matters: Changes in gross margin show pricing power and cost control. This affects profits.
Watch forGross margin improves to above 30% in upcoming quarters.
Also watch forGross margin declines further below 29.4% in the next reporting period.
Why it matters: Inventory growth can show demand and supply chain health. This impacts future sales and profits.
Worry ifInventory growth remains above 4% year over year in Q3.
Less concerning ifInventory growth declines to below 2% year over year in Q3.
Why it matters: The new CEO's strategies could drive growth. Early signs will show if the transition is effective.
Watch forSales growth exceeds 2% year over year in Q3 2026.
Also watch forSales growth falls below 2% year over year in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: An increase in the dividend shows strong finances. It shows a commitment to shareholders.
Supportive ifManagement raises the quarterly cash dividend to more than $1.30 per share.
Worry ifManagement keeps the quarterly cash dividend at $1.30 or lowers it.
Why it matters: Stable inventory growth shows good management and demand planning. It shows the company is healthy.
Watch forInventory growth stays at or below 4% from last year.
Also watch forInventory growth increases above 4% from last year.
Why it matters: The new CEO's strategies could drive growth or stability. Early signs will show if the transition is effective.
Watch forQuarterly net sales growth exceeds 2% under the new CEO's leadership.
Also watch forQuarterly net sales growth falls below 2% under the new CEO's leadership.
Why it matters: John B. Watwood's plans will shape the company's direction after the leadership change.
Watch forCEO John B. Watwood will announce new plans or priorities.
Also watch forNo new plans or priorities were announced in three months after his appointment.
Why it matters: Revenue trends can indicate overall sector health. Weakness may affect Pool's performance.
Worry ifSector revenue growth falls below average. This shows possible challenges ahead.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth stays steady or gets better. This shows ongoing strength.
Why it matters: Maintaining EPS guidance shows confidence in earnings and growth. It can affect investor trust.
Supportive ifManagement says EPS guidance will not change during the next earnings call.
Worry ifManagement lowers EPS guidance for 2026 during the next earnings call.