Portland General Electric (POR)
NYSEUtilitiesRegulated ElectricSnapshot 2026-11-05
$46.01+0.02%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEUtilitiesRegulated ElectricSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · POR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -22.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to real (inflation-adjusted) rates and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 9.6% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 31.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 20 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
POR — earnings miss
Dated 2026-10-29
On October 29, 2026, Portland General Electric Company (the Company) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2026. The press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 to this Report.
Why it matters: The tariff change affects pricing for data centers and overall customer costs.
Watch forData center customers are happy with the new pricing.
Also watch forSignificant pushback or loss of data center customers due to the new tariff.
Why it matters: Signed contracts would turn the resource shortlist into planned projects. Delays could leave new power needs unmet.
Supportive ifPGE signs 2025 RFP contracts by early 2027, as planned.
Worry ifPGE reports no signed contracts by early 2027 or says negotiations have stalled.
Why it matters: Industrial load grew 11.2% in Q2, and PGE kept its 2026 earnings range. Q3 will test both demand and cost control.
Watch forQ3 industrial load grows year over year, and PGE keeps its $3.33 to $3.53 adjusted EPS range.
Also watch forQ3 industrial load falls year over year, or PGE cuts its 2026 adjusted EPS range below $3.33.
Why it matters: A dividend increase shows confidence in cash flow. It helps with spending plans.
Supportive ifManagement announces a dividend increase of at least 5% per share.
Worry ifNo dividend increase will be announced during the next earnings call.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$84 on $10,000 · ±0.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $195 loss on $10,000 · 2.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,981 loss on $10,000 · 19.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The new structure could give PGE more ways to fund system upgrades. Staff support is not the final ruling.
Supportive ifThe OPUC issues a final order approving the holding company plan under terms PGE can meet.
Worry ifThe OPUC rejects the plan or adds terms that block the proposed structure.
Why it matters: Changes to the dividend may show management's view on cash flow.
Watch forThe quarterly dividend increases from the current 55.125 cents per share.
Also watch forThe quarterly dividend is cut or remains unchanged.
Why it matters: An increase shows PGE wants to give value back to shareholders.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of a dividend increase above $0.525 per share.
Worry ifNo dividend increase announced in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Stable cash flow is important. It helps fund operations and investments.
Supportive ifCash from operations reported above $300 million in Q2 2026.
Worry ifCash from operations reported below $300 million in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Changes in earnings guidance can show shifts in performance or market conditions.
Watch forManagement confirms earnings guidance of $3.33 to $3.53 per share for 2026.
Also watch forManagement lowers the earnings guidance to below $3.33 per share.
Why it matters: PGE's proposed case seeks a 4.8% overall rate increase. The decision will show how much of the request can pass through to customer bills.
Watch forThe OPUC approves a rate increase near PGE's proposed 4.8%, with rates starting July 1, 2027.
Also watch forThe OPUC rejects the case or approves an increase far below 4.8%.
Why it matters: PGE kept this earnings range in its latest report. Results below it would point to weaker execution or higher costs.
Watch forPGE reports 2026 adjusted earnings per share of at least $3.33 and no more than $3.53.
Also watch forPGE lowers its 2026 adjusted earnings range below $3.33 or reports results below that floor.
Why it matters: The filing seeks higher prices from July 2027. The final ruling will show how much cost recovery PGE gains.
Watch forThe OPUC approves a total rate increase near 4.8%, starting July 1, 2027.
Also watch forThe OPUC rejects the request or approves a much smaller increase than 4.8%.
Why it matters: The tariff change could greatly impact revenue from data centers and customer costs.
Watch forRevenue from big customers goes up a lot after the tariff change.
Also watch forRevenue from large customers drops or does not meet expectations after tariff changes.
Why it matters: Steady growth in industrial demand, especially from data centers, helps revenue and profits. It shows the market is strong.
Supportive ifIndustrial customer demand grows year-over-year by more than 10% in the next quarter.
Worry ifDemand from industrial customers is growing by less than 5% each year.
Why it matters: Strong cash flow is important for paying bills and dividends. This is key after mixed signals.
Watch forCash from operations increases by at least 10% compared to Q1.
Also watch forCash from operations decreases or stays flat compared to Q1.
Why it matters: More industrial use can support sales growth. The new tariff also raises prices for large load customers.
Supportive ifPGE reports industrial load growth above 10% year over year and keeps the new large load tariff in place.
Worry ifIndustrial load growth falls below 10% year over year, or PGE reports a change that cuts large load prices.
Why it matters: This filing could lead to a rate increase, impacting revenue and customer costs. It reflects PGE's ongoing regulatory strategy.
Supportive ifPGE files its 2027 general rate case with the OPUC as planned.
Worry ifPGE may delay filing or change the proposed rate increase a lot.
Why it matters: Approval would let PGE move closer to adding Washington utility operations. A delay or rejection would stall that plan.
Supportive ifThe OPUC approves the acquisition. The planned 2027 closing faces no major delay.
Worry ifThe OPUC rejects the deal or delays a key ruling beyond the planned 2027 closing window.
Why it matters: The company needs to show better net income after a significant drop last quarter. This will indicate if management's efforts are working.
Supportive ifQ2 net income increases from $45M in Q1 to above $60M.
Worry ifQ2 net income is under $45M. This shows ongoing struggles.