PRA Group, Inc. (PRAA)
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$19.02+0.16%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · PRAA
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -56.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -5.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 51.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 37 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
PRAA — credit agreement
Dated 2026-05-05
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. European Credit Agreement On April 30, 2026, PRA Group Europe Holding S.à r.l. ("PRA Group Europe Holding"), a wholly-owned subsidiary of PRA Group, Inc. (the “Company”), and its Swiss Branch, PRA Group Europe Holding S.à r.l. ("PRA Group Holding"), Luxembourg, Zug Branch, (together, the "Borrowers"), entered into the Second Amended and Restated Credit Agreement (the "Second A&R European Credit Agreement") with the lenders party thereto ("EU Lenders…
Why it matters: The company is making more money. This shows they are improving their profits.
Supportive ifQ2 operating income growth exceeds 20% year over year.
Worry ifQ2 operating income growth is below 10% year over year.
Why it matters: A big rise in European ERC would show strong portfolio performance. This would back management's plans for more income in the future.
Supportive ifEuropean ERC increases by more than $349 million in the next quarter.
Worry ifEuropean ERC increases by less than $349 million or declines.
Why it matters: Changes in ERC show future cash flow potential. This affects investment choices and company value.
Supportive ifERC increases by more than 10% in Q2 2026.
Worry ifERC decreases or grows less than 5% in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: A drop in sector revenue growth signals potential headwinds for PRA Group. This could impact their performance.
Worry ifSector revenue growth falls below 10% year over year.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains above 12% year over year.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$200 on $10,000 · ±2.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $486 loss on $10,000 · 4.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,234 loss on $10,000 · 42.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A big drop in the cash efficiency ratio may mean rising costs or problems in operations.
Worry ifCash efficiency ratio drops below 60%.
Less concerning ifCash efficiency ratio stays above 60%.
Why it matters: Net income is a measure of profitability. A decline could raise concerns about growth.
Worry ifQ2 2026 net income reported below $25 million.
Less concerning ifQ2 2026 net income reported at or above $25 million.
Why it matters: Changes in credit agreement terms may affect PRA's cash flow and investments.
Watch forThe European Credit Agreement terms are good, improving cash flow.
Also watch forThe European Credit Agreement terms are bad, hurting cash flow.
Why it matters: Positive cash flow shows the company is enhancing its operational efficiency. This is key for financial health.
Supportive ifCash from operations stays positive in Q2, above $20M.
Worry ifCash from operations turns negative again in Q2.
Why it matters: A fall in net income may show problems with making money. This goes against management's goal to boost earnings.
Worry ifQ3 net income falls below $58 million.
Less concerning ifQ3 net income exceeds $58 million.
Why it matters: News about the share buyback program may show management's trust in the company's worth. It shows they want to give value back to shareholders.
Supportive ifShare buybacks under the new program will be announced in the next quarter.
Worry ifNo share repurchases announced within the next quarter.
Why it matters: Updates on the PRA 3.0 strategy will show progress in technology and operations. This will affect future growth.
Watch forManagement shares good news on the PRA 3.0 strategy in Q2 earnings.
Also watch forNo significant updates on the PRA 3.0 strategy in Q2 earnings.
Why it matters: If net income growth slows, it may show problems in making money. This could hurt investor trust.
Worry ifNet income growth in Q3 falls below 10% compared to Q3 2025.
Less concerning ifNet income growth in Q3 exceeds 10% compared to Q3 2025.
Why it matters: Higher expected recoveries would mean stronger cash flows in the future.
Supportive ifRecoveries are expected to be over $50 million in Q2.
Worry ifRecoveries are expected to be below $30 million in Q2.
Why it matters: Keeping net income over $25 million shows strong operations. It also matches management's goals.
Supportive ifQ2 net income reports above $25 million.
Worry ifQ2 net income falls below $25 million.
Why it matters: Cash collections growth is key for PRA Group's financial health. A slowdown could signal issues in their strategy.
Worry ifQ3 cash collections growth below 4% compared to Q3 2025.
Less concerning ifQ3 cash collections growth meets or exceeds 4% compared to Q3 2025.
Why it matters: More share buybacks may show that management believes in the company's value and future.
Supportive ifShare repurchases exceed $10 million in the next quarter.
Worry ifNo share repurchases or a decrease in the repurchase amount.
Why it matters: A slowdown in European ERC growth may show problems in the European market. This could affect future income.
Worry ifEuropean ERC growth below $349 million in the next quarterly report.
Less concerning ifEuropean ERC growth exceeds $349 million in the next quarterly report.
Why it matters: If operating costs go up too fast, it could lower net income and profits.
Worry ifOperating expenses increase more than 7% year over year in Q3.
Less concerning ifOperating expenses increase 7% or less year over year in Q3.