Progress Software Corporation (PRGS)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-09-04
$44.05-1.26%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · PRGS
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 12 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $44 PRGS trades at 7.6× p/e, below its 40× p/e peer median. Our $69 fair value sits well above the price. We hold it with low confidence: our number sits well above the analyst range and the peer anchor overstates how cheap it looks. Analysts target $45–$55. Note: our $69 fair value sits above the entire analyst range ($45–$55). Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $50.00 | — | — | Analyst | medium |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $205.08 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | medium |
| ddm gordon | 12M | $19.24 | — | — | TTM | medium |
| graham number | 12M | $39.61 | — | — | TTM | medium |
| Mgmt guidance |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Bottom 25% on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$45.00 – $55.00 (median $50.00) · 3 analysts · as of 2026-08-12
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| 12M |
| $72.19 |
| 40.3 |
| 1.79 |
| Mgmt |
| medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $216.40 | 30.0 | 7.21 | TTM | medium |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $173.89 | 27.8 | 6.25 | ntm analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $111.44 | 4.7 | 23.72 | TTM | medium |
| PEG | 12M | $38.45 | 6.6 | 5.83 | TTM | medium |
| residual income | 12M | $33.34 | — | — | TTM | medium |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $45.22 | 7.8 | 5.83 | TTM | medium |
| triangulated | 12M | $250.02 | 40.3 | 6.20 | Triangulated | medium |
| Mgmt guidance | 3Y | $86.17 | 40.3 | 2.14 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $329.12 | 30.0 | 10.97 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $178.31 | 27.8 | 6.40 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $108.23 | 4.7 | 23.04 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $42.24 | 6.6 | 6.40 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $49.67 | 7.8 | 6.40 | Analyst | medium |
| Mgmt guidance | 5Y | $96.96 | 40.3 | 2.40 | Mgmt(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $435.27 | 30.0 | 14.51 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $174.87 | 27.8 | 6.28 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $106.14 | 4.7 | 22.60 | guidance | high |
| PEG | 5Y | $41.42 | 6.6 | 6.28 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $48.71 | 7.8 | 6.28 | Analyst | high |