Progress Software Corporation (PRGS)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-09-04
$44.05-1.26%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · PRGS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -35.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -0.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 35.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 69 industry peers
PRGS — credit agreement
Dated 2026-07-22
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On July 22, 2026, Progress Software Corporation (“Progress”) entered into an Asset Purchase Agreement (the “Purchase Agreement”) with Domo, Inc., a Delaware corporation (the “Seller”), pursuant to which Progress has agreed to acquire substantially all of the assets and employees, excluding the Seller’s net operating loss carryforwards, and assume certain liabilities of the Seller used in the operation of its business of providing software platforms,…
Why it matters: Earnings per share below $0.35 show weaker profits. This does not match management's growth story.
Worry ifQ2 2026 diluted earnings per share reported below $0.35.
Less concerning ifQ2 2026 diluted earnings per share reported at or above $0.35.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth could signal a slowdown in the IT sector. This may affect Progress Software's performance.
Worry ifSector revenue growth has been below its median for two months in a row.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains above its median for the next two months.
Why it matters: Strong cash flow supports investments and debt repayment. A miss could impact financial stability.
Worry ifCash flow from operations reported below $273 million for FY 2026.
Less concerning ifCash flow from operations meets or exceeds $273 million for FY 2026.
Why it matters: Strong cash flow helps with investments and returns to shareholders. It shows financial health.
Supportive ifCash from operations in Q3 2026 exceeds $273 million.
Worry ifCash from operations in Q3 2026 is below $273 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$201 on $10,000 · ±2.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $513 loss on $10,000 · 5.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,647 loss on $10,000 · 46.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Higher EPS means better profits and efficiency. This shows their AI products are successful.
Supportive ifQ3 non-GAAP EPS reported above $1.53.
Worry ifQ3 non-GAAP EPS reported below $1.53.
Why it matters: If revenue growth is below 4%, it shows a slowdown. This goes against management's goal to grow revenue.
Worry ifIn Q2 2026, revenue growth was below 4% compared to last year.
Less concerning ifQ2 2026 revenue growth reported at or above 4% year-over-year.
Why it matters: Doing better than this guidance shows strong demand for Progress's AI products. It supports their growth plans.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue reported above $250 million.
Worry ifQ3 revenue reported below $244 million.
Why it matters: Keeping this margin shows Progress can manage costs while increasing revenue. This is key for long-term profit.
Supportive ifOperating margin was above 16% for Q3.
Worry ifOperating margin was below 16% for Q3.
Why it matters: Higher ARR growth means better customer retention and demand for Progress's products. This is important for future revenue.
Supportive ifARR growth reported above 2% for Q3.
Worry ifARR growth reported below 2% for Q3.
Why it matters: Finishing this acquisition will help Progress grow its AI skills and customer base. It can greatly improve their products.
Supportive ifThe deal will close if it gets approvals. It also needs to avoid big delays.
Worry ifAcquisition fails to close or faces significant delays beyond the fiscal year end.