Progress Software Corporation (PRGS)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-05
$44.59-0.45%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · PRGS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -59.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 26.0% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 85.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 23 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
PRGS — credit agreement
Dated 2026-07-22
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On July 22, 2026, Progress Software Corporation (“Progress”) entered into an Asset Purchase Agreement (the “Purchase Agreement”) with Domo, Inc., a Delaware corporation (the “Seller”), pursuant to which Progress has agreed to acquire substantially all of the assets and employees, excluding the Seller’s net operating loss carryforwards, and assume certain liabilities of the Seller used in the operation of its business of providing software platforms,…
Why it matters: Cash from operations rose 20% in Q3. Progress also used cash and debt to fund Domo, so the full-year cash result will test its cash flow record.
Worry ifFY 2026 cash from operations is below $274 million, the low end of guidance.
Less concerning ifFY 2026 cash from operations reaches or exceeds $274 million.
Why it matters: Q3 revenue fell 2% year over year, while ARR grew just 1%. Results below the low end of guidance would deepen concern about slow growth.
Worry ifFY 2026 revenue comes in below $1.044 billion, the low end of guidance.
Less concerning ifFY 2026 revenue reaches at least $1.044 billion, within or above guidance.
Why it matters: ARR grew 1% in Q3, while management has named growth as its top priority. Faster ARR growth would show stronger recurring sales.
Supportive ifARR growth rises above 1% year over year in a later report.
Worry ifARR growth falls below 1% year over year or turns negative.
Why it matters: Progress paid $400 million for Domo and funded it with cash and debt. Early revenue and cost details can show how the deal is affecting the business.
Watch forProgress reports Domo revenue and integration costs. It reports no added delay or deal-related charge beyond those amounts.
Also watch forProgress reports a delay in Domo integration, lost customer ties, or a new deal charge.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$171 on $10,000 · ±1.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $513 loss on $10,000 · 5.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,437 loss on $10,000 · 44.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.