Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Prelude Therapeutics Inc (PRLD)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$4.08+7.94%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for PRLD yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
EPS loss narrows toward -$0.94 in FY27 | A supporting condition in Prelude Therapeutics Inc's published investment case. The stated target is EPS loss >= -$0.94. | Improving | EPS loss worsens beyond -$1.10 in FY27 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 11, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk clinical-stage biotechnology company, not an established earnings compounder. The long-term thesis is intact, with key development priorities broadly progressing, but evidence of durable commercial performance is limited.
The valuation model shows a durable premium versus peers, while its expectations gap is negative, meaning expectations appear ahead of what the evidence supports. The premium is tagged as justified, and no fragility gates fired, but model confidence is medium.
Near term, management expects to start a Phase 1 study of PRT13722 in HR+ breast cancer in Q4 2026, after FDA clearance, and cash supports a runway into Q2 2028. PRT12396 has entered Phase 1 with enrollment ongoing, though delivery is assessed as mixed. PRLD reported recent earnings beats and revenue growth, but it remains loss-making; the risk label has risen to high and the next results carry meaningful miss risk.
The multi-year thesis hinges on clinical programs advancing and management maintaining its stated timeline and cash runway. A guidance cut would be a negative near-term signal, while weaker job growth could increase recession concerns across cyclical and healthcare names. Continued earnings strength and higher guidance from healthcare bellwethers could support the sector backdrop.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, PRLD’s thesis rests on turning clinical progress and available cash into meaningful development milestones, with high risk and loss-making finances limiting confidence. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Prelude is on track to file IND for PRT13722 by mid-2026. |
| Intact |
| IND filing delayed beyond 2026-06-30 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth near 94% in FY26 | A primary condition in Prelude Therapeutics Inc's published investment case. The stated target is >=94% YoY revenue growth. | Intact | revenue growth falls below 70% in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.61 → $-0.48 · observed estimates
$0.05B → $0.04B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.61 | $53,333,333 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.61 | $53,333,333 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.61 | $53,333,333 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.41 | $50,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.41 | $50,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.41 | $50,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.86 | $50,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.86 | $50,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.41 | $50,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.41 | $50,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.41 | $50,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.41 | $50,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.41 | $50,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.41 | $50,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-0.41 | $50,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.86 | $50,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.86 | $50,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.41 | $50,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.86 | $50,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.41 | $50,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.41 | $50,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.41 | $50,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.41 | $50,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.41 | $50,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.41 | $50,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.41 | $50,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.41 | $56,660,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.41 | $56,660,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.41 | $56,660,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.41 | $56,660,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.41 | $56,660,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.41 | $56,660,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.41 | $56,660,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.41 | $56,660,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.41 | $56,660,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.41 | $56,660,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.41 | $56,660,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.41 | $56,660,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.41 | $56,660,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.41 | $56,660,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.41 | $56,660,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.41 | $56,660,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.41 | $56,660,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.41 | $56,660,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.41 | $56,660,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.41 | $56,660,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.41 | $56,660,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.41 | $56,660,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.41 | $56,660,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.41 | $56,660,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.41 | $56,660,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.41 | $56,660,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.41 | $56,660,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.41 | $56,660,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.41 | $56,660,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.41 | $56,660,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.41 | $56,660,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.53 | $41,773,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.53 | $41,773,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.53 | $41,773,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.53 | $41,773,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.53 | $41,773,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.53 | $41,773,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.53 | $41,773,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.53 | $41,773,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.53 | $41,773,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.43 | $41,773,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.43 | $41,773,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.43 | $41,773,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.43 | $41,773,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.43 | $41,773,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.43 | $41,773,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.43 | $41,773,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.43 | $41,773,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.43 | $41,773,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.43 | $41,773,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.43 | $41,773,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.43 | $41,773,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.43 | $41,773,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.43 | $41,773,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.43 | $41,773,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.48 | $36,330,250 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.48 | $36,325,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.48 | $36,325,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.48 | $36,325,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.48 | $36,325,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.48 | $36,325,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.48 | $36,325,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.48 | $36,325,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.48 | $36,325,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.48 | $36,325,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.48 | $36,325,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.48 | $36,325,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.48 | $36,325,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.48 | $36,325,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.48 | $36,325,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.48 | $36,325,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.48 | $36,325,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.48 | $36,325,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.48 | $36,325,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.48 | $36,325,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.48 | $36,325,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.48 | $36,325,000 | 3 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.