Reading PSMT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track PSMT free→Reading PSMT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track PSMT free→NASDAQConsumer StaplesDiscount StoresSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality is mixed, indicating some inconsistency in how cash flow supports reported profits. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may affect future performance. Peer multiples imply a price about 80% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich, as it trades above peer multiples, and the longer horizon does not make that back through growth. Key factors to watch include any potential guidance cuts and the performance of sector bellwethers. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $182.30. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $182 PSMT trades at 36× p/e — 2.1× the 17× p/e peer median, and above its own 22× history. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $101 fair value is low-confidence here. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 80% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 9%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only expensive valuation — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated strong grew net income 66% of the time over the next year (vs 53% for the rest of the cohort, n=1144).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.72x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1382).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.16 → $1.07 (-7.4% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 33% of analysts rate Buy.
Divergence: fundamentals are strong but estimates are being cut. Worth reading the recent material events.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 1 guided quarters · 0.0% avg surprise
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$102.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$242.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,062.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: CPI data can affect how much people spend and their views on inflation. This impacts PriceSmart's sales.
Confirms one read:CPI shows lower inflation rates, which helps boost consumer confidence.
Confirms the other:CPI shows higher inflation rates, which leads to less consumer spending.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for PSMT yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
No material events in the last 90 days.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Consumer Staples (broad).
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
PSMT PriceSmart | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 37 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
USFD US Foods | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 27 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
PFGC Performance Food Group | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 19 of 100 | full | moderate |
COKE Coca-Cola Consolidated | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 86 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
BJ BJ's Wholesale Club | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 83 of 100 | full | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLP
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
PriceSmart plans to open new warehouse clubs in Guatemala, Dominican Republic, Jamaica, and Costa Rica.
PriceSmart aims to boost net merchandise sales, which grew 9.9% in the latest quarter.
PriceSmart is focused on improving operating income, which rose to $75.4 million in the latest quarter.
Why it matters: Strong sales in the earnings report would indicate resilience in a tough market.
Confirms:The earnings report shows sales growth over 5% compared to last year.
Disproves:Sales growth is below 0% compared to last year.
Why it matters: Better margins may show stronger cost control and pricing power during tough times.
Confirms:The earnings report shows operating margins over 5% for the quarter.
Disproves:Operating margins fall below 5% in the earnings report.
Why it matters: If revenue growth speeds up, it could signal a positive shift in the sector's maturity phase.
Confirms:Revenue growth exceeds 5% year over year in the next quarter.
Disproves:Revenue growth remains below 5% year over year.