Parsons Corporation (PSN)
NYSEIndustrialsInformation Technology ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$47.58+2.65%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsInformation Technology ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · PSN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -33.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 5.1% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 38.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name has been missing across recent quarters and has erratic recent earnings surprises. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 38 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
PSN — earnings miss
Dated 2026-07-29
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On July 29, 2026, Parson Corporation (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended June 30, 2026 and certain other financial information. A copy of the press release is attached to this Form 8-K as Exhibit 99.1
Why it matters: Adjusted EBITDA guidance shows how much money they expect to make. A lower number means they have problems.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA guidance is between $500 million and $560 million or less.
Less concerning ifGuidance is raised back to the original range of $615 million - $675 million.
Why it matters: Cash flow affects how the company invests and pays off debt.
Worry ifOperating cash flow guidance is $430 million to $490 million for 2026.
Less concerning ifOperating cash flow guidance is raised above $470 million.
Why it matters: Cash flow will show if the company can improve from negative cash flow in Q1 2026.
Supportive ifIn Q2 2026, cash flow from operations is positive. This shows better financial health.
Worry ifIn Q2 2026, cash flow is still negative. This raises worries about how well the company operates.
Why it matters: Strong growth in the Middle East shows demand is strong. It shows the company's ability to adapt.
Supportive ifOrganic revenue growth in the Middle East exceeds 10% year over year.
Worry ifOrganic revenue growth in the Middle East falls below 5% year over year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$153 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $415 loss on $10,000 · 4.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,484 loss on $10,000 · 54.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A change in revenue guidance will show how management views market conditions. It reflects their confidence in future sales.
Worry ifManagement raises revenue guidance to more than $6.5 billion for fiscal year 2026.
Less concerning ifManagement lowers revenue guidance to less than $6.2 billion for fiscal year 2026.
Why it matters: A growing backlog shows strong future revenue potential. It shows demand for Parsons' services.
Supportive ifTotal backlog grows beyond $9.3 billion in Q2 2026.
Worry ifTotal backlog declines below $9.3 billion in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Revenue performance will show if the company can meet its guidance of $6.5 billion to $6.8 billion for the year.
Worry ifIn Q2 2026, revenue is over $1.6 billion. This shows progress towards the annual goal.
Less concerning ifQ2 2026 revenue falls below $1.5 billion, signaling ongoing struggles to meet guidance.
Why it matters: The adjusted EBITDA margin shows how well the company works. It also shows how much money it makes.
Watch forIn Q2 2026, the adjusted EBITDA margin is over 10.1%. This shows better operations.
Also watch forIn Q2 2026, the adjusted EBITDA margin falls below 9.6%. This shows possible problems.
Why it matters: Reiterating revenue guidance shows confidence in growth. It affects investor trust.
Supportive ifManagement says FY 2026 revenue guidance stays the same in the next earnings call.
Worry ifManagement lowers FY 2026 revenue guidance during the next earnings call.
Why it matters: Restating free cash flow guidance shows strong cash generation. This comforts investors.
Supportive ifManagement says FY 2026 free cash flow guidance stays the same in the next earnings call.
Worry ifManagement lowers FY 2026 free cash flow guidance during the next earnings call.
Why it matters: This growth would confirm management's guidance for fiscal year 2026. It shows strong demand in key markets.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue growth exceeds 4.5% year-over-year.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth falls below 4.5% year-over-year.
Why it matters: If revenue growth picks up, it could signal a recovery in the industrial sector. This would be positive for Parsons.
Supportive ifThree-year revenue growth in the industrial sector rises back toward 10% or higher.
Worry ifThree-year revenue growth stays below 8%.
Why it matters: Management has lowered revenue guidance. This shows they face challenges in growing.
Worry ifManagement keeps revenue guidance at $6.2 billion to $6.5 billion for 2026.
Less concerning ifRevenue guidance is raised back to original levels of $6.5 billion to $6.8 billion.
Why it matters: Winning large contracts shows strong demand for Parsons' services. It can boost revenue and market confidence.
Supportive ifParsons announces more than five contract wins worth over $100 million in a quarter.
Worry ifParsons fails to secure any new contracts over $100 million in a quarter.