Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Personalis, Inc. (PSNL)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Diagnostics & ResearchSnapshot 2026-11-04
$15.55-1.52%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Diagnostics & ResearchSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for PSNL yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Accelerate clinical volume adoption ahead of full reimbursement | A supporting condition in Personalis, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Sustain volume growth to support revenue targets. | Intact | Clinical volume growth stalls or declines over next 4 quarters | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk growth business, not yet a durable compounder, because it is loss-making and recent financial performance is weak. The long-term thesis is on watch: clinical volume adoption is progressing, but recent earnings misses and results below the industry cohort leave execution unproven.
The valuation model labels expectations as justified, but its confidence is low. PSNL trades at a substantial premium to peers, with optionality as the main valuation driver and a negative expectations gap, suggesting the market gives weight to future growth while leaving limited room for disappointment.
Near term, clinical test volumes and revenue have grown, and management has reaffirmed its 2026 revenue guidance; cash use is broadly tracking its stated plan. However, the company remains loss-making, has missed recent earnings, and is expected to use about $100 million in cash during 2026, so guidance delivery and cash discipline remain important.
The multi-year thesis depends on clinical volume growth translating into sustained revenue growth while management maintains guidance and controls cash use. Near term, another guidance cut or further weakening in jobs data would add pressure, while continued strength from healthcare sector bellwethers could support the sector backdrop.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, PSNL offers a growth-led thesis with encouraging clinical adoption but weak recent execution, ongoing losses, and high risk. The evidence supports close attention to guidance, volume growth, and cash use, rather than treating the thesis as established. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 2 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “" Delivering 26% sequential and 258% year-over-year clinical volume growth, especially during what is traditionally the industry's toughest seasonal quarter reflects the strong market demand for our ultrasensitive NeXT Personal test.” “We remain firmly on-track to achieve more than a 500% increase in our clinical revenue over last year.””
Maintain gross margin near 17.5% in 2026 | The company targets gross margins near 17.5% next year. | Intact | Gross margin falls below 15% in FY26 | Gross margin: 21.21% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 17.5%. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 4, 202621.214832 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve full-year 2026 revenue of $78M to $80M | A primary condition in Personalis, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is ~$79M. | Broken | Annual revenue falls below $75M in FY26 | Revenue: $25.596M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: ~$79M. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 4, 202625,596,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.91 → $-0.99 · observed estimates
$0.11B → $0.11B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.91 | $109,315,790 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.89 | $110,318,421 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.91 | $109,315,790 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.91 | $109,315,790 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.91 | $109,315,790 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.91 | $109,315,790 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.89 | $110,318,421 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.89 | $110,318,421 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.89 | $110,318,421 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.91 | $109,315,790 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.91 | $109,315,790 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.89 | $110,318,421 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.91 | $109,315,790 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.89 | $110,318,421 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-0.93 | $111,351,755 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.90 | $110,201,500 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.90 | $110,201,500 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.90 | $110,201,500 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.94 | $110,201,500 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.93 | $111,351,755 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.93 | $111,351,755 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.93 | $111,351,755 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.93 | $111,351,755 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.93 | $111,351,755 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.93 | $111,351,755 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.93 | $111,351,755 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.94 | $110,002,106 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.94 | $110,001,506 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.94 | $110,001,506 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.94 | $110,001,506 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.94 | $110,001,506 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.94 | $109,933,126 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.94 | $109,933,126 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.94 | $109,933,126 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.94 | $109,933,126 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.94 | $109,933,126 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.94 | $109,933,126 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.94 | $109,933,126 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.94 | $109,933,126 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.94 | $109,933,126 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.94 | $109,933,126 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.94 | $109,933,126 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.94 | $109,933,126 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.94 | $109,933,126 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.94 | $109,933,126 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.94 | $109,933,126 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.94 | $109,933,126 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.94 | $109,933,126 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.94 | $109,933,126 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.94 | $109,933,126 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.94 | $109,933,126 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.94 | $109,933,126 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.94 | $109,933,126 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.94 | $109,933,126 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.94 | $109,933,126 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.94 | $109,933,126 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.94 | $109,933,126 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.94 | $109,933,126 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.94 | $109,933,126 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.94 | $109,933,126 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.94 | $109,933,126 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.94 | $109,933,126 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.94 | $109,933,126 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.94 | $109,933,126 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.94 | $109,933,126 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.94 | $109,933,126 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.94 | $109,933,126 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.94 | $109,933,126 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.94 | $109,933,126 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.94 | $109,933,126 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.94 | $109,933,126 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.94 | $109,933,126 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.94 | $109,933,126 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.94 | $109,933,126 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.94 | $109,933,726 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.94 | $109,933,726 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.94 | $109,933,726 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.94 | $109,933,726 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.94 | $109,933,726 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.94 | $109,933,726 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.94 | $109,933,726 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.94 | $109,933,726 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.94 | $109,933,726 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.94 | $109,933,726 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.94 | $109,933,726 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.94 | $109,933,726 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.94 | $109,933,726 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.94 | $109,933,726 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.94 | $109,933,726 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.94 | $109,933,726 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.99 | $109,739,525 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.99 | $109,739,525 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.99 | $109,739,525 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.99 | $109,739,525 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.99 | $109,739,525 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.99 | $109,739,525 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.99 | $109,739,525 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.99 | $109,739,525 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.99 | $109,739,525 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.99 | $109,739,525 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.99 | $109,739,525 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.99 | $109,739,525 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.99 | $109,739,525 | 4 / 4 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.