Protagonist Therapeutics, Inc. (PTGX)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$135.26-5.66%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · PTGX
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 36.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| -29.2% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 65.9 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name has erratic recent earnings surprises and operates in a high-miss-rate industry. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 66 industry peers
PTGX — director transition
Dated 2026-06-18
The filing is about the adoption of a new equity incentive plan and does not involve any changes in management or board composition.
Why it matters: Protagonist earns royalties on global sales. Early sales growth would show demand beyond the launch milestone.
Supportive ifJ&J reports rising ICOTYDE sales after its first full sales quarter in Q2 2026.
Worry ifJ&J reports flat or falling sales in the next report, or gives no sign of continued launch growth.
Why it matters: Starting the trial would turn supportive Phase 1 results into a larger test in psoriasis. A delay would push back this pipeline step.
Supportive ifThe company starts the PN-881 Phase 2b psoriasis program by the end of Q1 2027.
Worry ifThe trial has not started by the end of Q1 2027, or the company reports a safety or drug-level issue.
Why it matters: Higher spending supports new trials, but it also uses cash faster. The company reported $849.5 million in cash at June 30.
Watch forR&D spending rises as planned in the second half of 2026. The company reports progress on PN-881 or other trials.
Also watch forR&D spending rises sharply without trial starts, or cash falls well below the June 30 level of $849.5 million.
Why it matters: This is the first human test of the company's injectable triple-action obesity drug. Safety and early drug-level data will shape the next steps.
Watch forThe PN-477sc Phase 1 trial reports acceptable safety and drug levels, with no major dose limits.
Also watch forThe trial reports serious safety concerns, poor drug levels, or a pause in dosing.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$138 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $360 loss on $10,000 · 3.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,883 loss on $10,000 · 18.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.