Protagonist Therapeutics, Inc. (PTGX)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
$145.72-2.07%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · PTGX
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 39.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -29.3% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 69.0 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 398 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
PTGX — director transition
Dated 2026-06-18
The filing is about the adoption of a new equity incentive plan and does not involve any changes in management or board composition.
Why it matters: The FDA's choice on rusfertide could bring in a lot of money from payments and royalties.
Supportive ifThe FDA approves rusfertide for polycythemia vera. This will happen by August 2026.
Worry ifFDA delays the decision beyond the PDUFA date or issues a complete response letter.
Why it matters: More royalties from ICOTYDE would improve Protagonist's finances. It shows success in selling a key product.
Supportive ifRoyalties from ICOTYDE go up a lot, showing strong market success.
Worry ifRoyalties from ICOTYDE drop or stay the same, showing problems in selling.
Why it matters: Increasing royalty revenue shows strong product uptake. It also indicates good financial health.
Supportive ifQuarterly report shows royalty revenue increasing by more than 10% year over year.
Worry ifRoyalty revenue declines or fails to grow year over year.
Why it matters: Finishing this Phase 1 study is important for Protagonist's plans. Good results could help investors trust the company.
Supportive ifThe Phase 1 study is finished, showing progress in the research pipeline.
Worry ifThe Phase 1 study is delayed past mid-2026. This shows there may be problems.
Why it matters: Starting the Phase 2b study for PN-881 shows progress in Protagonist's psoriasis treatments.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of the initiation of the Phase 2b program for PN-881 in early Q1 2027.
Worry ifDelay in starting the Phase 2b program for PN-881 beyond early 2027.
Why it matters: News about cash runway shows how Protagonist is doing with money and research funding.
Watch forCash runway is confirmed to last until at least 2028, showing financial strength.
Also watch forCash runway is reported to shorten a lot, raising worries about funding.
Why it matters: The FDA may approve rusfertide as a new treatment for polycythemia vera.
Supportive ifFDA approval of rusfertide by the PDUFA date in August 2026.
Worry ifFDA denies approval or delays the decision beyond August 2026.
Why it matters: Progress in the R&D pipeline is key for Protagonist's future growth and value.
Supportive ifA new clinical trial is announced. Positive data comes from an ongoing study.
Worry ifNo updates or delays in the R&D pipeline for the next quarter.
Why it matters: If revenue growth drops below the median, it signals a potential slowdown in the sector.
Worry ifQ1 2026 revenue growth reported below the median growth rate for the sector.
Less concerning ifQ1 2026 revenue growth remains above the median growth rate for the sector.
Why it matters: Strong sales of ICOTYDE could confirm market acceptance and drive future revenue.
Supportive ifICOTYDE sales exceed $50 million in Q3 2026.
Worry ifICOTYDE sales fall below $30 million in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: More R&D spending shows a strong commitment to many clinical programs.
Supportive ifR&D costs rise a lot in H2 2026 compared to H1 2026.
Worry ifR&D expenses do not increase or decrease in H2 2026.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$190 on $10,000 · ±1.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $351 loss on $10,000 · 3.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,638 loss on $10,000 · 16.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.