Portillo's, Inc. (PTLO)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$5.45+4.61%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · PTLO
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -15.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 5.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 21.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 11 industry peers
PTLO — strategy / product update — Costs Associated with Exit or Disposal Activities
Dated 2026-11-05
Costs Associated with Exit or Disposal Activities. On November 4, 2026, the Board of Directors of Portillo's Inc. approved a plan to close a mid-to-high single digit number of underperforming restaurants outside of Chicagoland, with the majority occurring in the fiscal fourth quarter of 2026. In making this determination, the Company evaluated each restaurant’s sales performance, restaurant-level margins, and projected operating performance. These actions are part of the Company's ongoing eff…
Why it matters: Q2 sales fell 1.2%, as transactions dropped 3.4%. Positive growth would show the existing restaurants are gaining sales again.
Supportive ifThe November 5, 2026, earnings report shows Q3 sales at the same restaurants grew above 0%.
Worry ifQ3 same-restaurant sales fall by 1.2% or more, matching or worsening the Q2 decline.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$225 on $10,000 · ±2.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $549 loss on $10,000 · 5.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,615 loss on $10,000 · 46.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.