PayPal (PYPL)
NASDAQFinancialsCredit ServicesSnapshot 2026-07-07
$45.65+1.24%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 13 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $45.65. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $46 PYPL trades at 8.6× p/e, below its 17× p/e peer median. Our $68 fair value sits well above the price. We hold it with low confidence: our number sits well above the analyst range and the peer anchor overstates how cheap it looks. Analysts target $42–$54. Note: our $68 fair value sits above the entire analyst range ($42–$54). Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $48.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $95.82 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $109.41 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| graham number | 12M | $50.99 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Mgmt guidance |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 25% on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$42.00 – $54.00 (median $48.00) · 9 analysts · as of 2026-07-07
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| 12M |
| $89.53 |
| 16.5 |
| 5.41 |
| Mgmt |
| high |
| Peer P/B | 12M | $45.66 | 2.1 | 21.77 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $81.49 | 13.6 | 5.99 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $87.87 | 16.5 | 5.31 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $123.73 | 3.4 | 36.67 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $56.43 | 10.6 | 5.31 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $34.60 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $62.43 | 11.8 | 5.31 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $90.44 | 16.5 | 5.47 | Triangulated | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 3Y | $105.24 | 16.5 | 6.36 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/B | 3Y | $46.05 | 2.1 | 21.95 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $88.39 | 13.6 | 6.50 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $101.41 | 16.5 | 6.13 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $139.90 | 3.4 | 41.46 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $65.13 | 10.6 | 6.13 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $72.05 | 11.8 | 6.13 | Analyst | medium |
| Mgmt guidance | 5Y | $117.22 | 16.5 | 7.08 | Mgmt(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/B | 5Y | $46.30 | 2.1 | 22.07 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $93.31 | 13.6 | 6.86 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $109.87 | 16.5 | 6.64 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $151.57 | 3.4 | 44.92 | Analyst | high |
| PEG | 5Y | $70.56 | 10.6 | 6.64 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $78.06 | 11.8 | 6.64 | Analyst | high |