PayPal (PYPL)
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$54.96-3.27%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
Warn: Primary pillar under pressure — Revenue grows to at least $34.3B in FY26: FY26 revenue guidance not reported; Q2 FY26 rev $8.68B (+5.0% YoY).
PayPal grows revenue about 7% yearly, reaching $8.35B in Q1 2026. Profit remains solid with EPS guidance at $5.31 for 2026. The company innovates with stablecoin and AI efforts. Buybacks and joining EU Payments Council support growth.
Leadership changes and shuttering the venture arm threaten growth. Competition in online checkout is rising. Guidance cuts and slowing execution risk hurting revenue and profit growth.
The price is about 33% below our fair value near $68, reflecting cautious views. Analysts expect 4% revenue growth, but we see risks from strategy shifts and competition.
Breaks if: Branded checkout revenue share declines significantly next year
Breaks if: EPS falls below $5.0 in FY26
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a turnaround story with a focus on growth strategies and improving profitability. The current thesis is in a watch state, indicating cautious optimism as recent performance has not fully aligned with industry peers.
The market appears to have priced in a cheap valuation compared to peers, with an expectations gap suggesting that investors are not overly optimistic. Recent valuation increases indicate some recognition of potential, but the overall sentiment remains cautious.
Management is on track with priorities such as advancing growth strategies and returning capital to shareholders. However, there are mixed results in improving profitability, with operating margins showing limited progress.
The long-term thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like Visa, Mastercard, and American Express. If these companies continue to perform well, it could provide a favorable backdrop for PayPal, while any negative guidance from them could pose risks.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has weakened. The transaction take rate fell to 1.61%, impacting revenue growth. Analysts have expressed skepticism about whether past strategies will materialize. Additionally, a sharp drop in stock price suggests the market is repricing the thesis.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Focus on improving execution and accelerating growth through strategic investments.
Breaks if: Stablecoin or AI initiatives fail to gain traction within a year
Breaks if: Total revenue falls below $32B in FY26
Focus on improving execution and accelerating growth through strategic investments.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, PayPal's performance will depend on its ability to execute on growth strategies and the overall health of the financial sector. Not investment advice.