PayPal (PYPL)
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-05
$58.96-2.06%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · PYPL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -1.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 4.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 5.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 26 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
PYPL — officer change
Dated 2026-05-21
EVP, General Manager, Consumer Group — Diego Scotti: Diego Scotti will cease to serve as EVP, General Manager, Consumer Group.
Why it matters: Transaction margin dollars grew 2% in Q3. More growth would support PayPal's claim that its strategy is reaching its results.
Supportive ifQ4 transaction margin dollars rise year over year, above the Q3 growth rate of 2%.
Worry ifQ4 transaction margin dollars are flat or lower year over year.
Why it matters: PayPal declared a $0.14-per-share dividend. The record date and payment date are fixed near-term events in its capital return plan.
Watch forPayPal pays the declared $0.14-per-share dividend on December 24. Holders of record on December 4 receive it.
Also watch forPayPal announces a change or delay to the $0.14 dividend or its December 24 payment date.
Why it matters: Q3 GAAP operating margin fell 173 basis points to 16.3%. A further drop would show that profit pressure remains.
Worry ifQ4 GAAP operating margin is below 16.3%.
Less concerning ifQ4 GAAP operating margin is at least 16.3%.
Why it matters: Management said branded checkout had stabilized in Q2, but Q3 results give no branded-checkout measure. Growth would add proof of progress.
Supportive ifPayPal reports branded checkout growth from the same quarter last year in Q4.
Worry ifPayPal reports no growth or lower branded checkout volume than a year ago in Q4.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$97 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $334 loss on $10,000 · 3.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,245 loss on $10,000 · 42.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: PayPal raised its full-year EPS guide after Q3. Meeting or beating $5.60 would show that stronger earnings are continuing.
Supportive ifFY2026 non-GAAP EPS is at least $5.60.
Worry ifFY2026 non-GAAP EPS is below $5.60.