PayPal (PYPL)
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$54.96-3.27%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · PYPL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -34.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 4.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 39.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 37 industry peers
PYPL — officer change
Dated 2026-05-21
EVP, General Manager, Consumer Group — Diego Scotti: Diego Scotti will cease to serve as EVP, General Manager, Consumer Group.
Why it matters: A drop in EPS shows ongoing problems with making money, even with revenue growth.
Worry ifQ2 2026 GAAP EPS reports a decline of 5% or more compared to Q1 2026.
Less concerning ifQ2 2026 GAAP EPS shows stability or growth compared to Q1 2026.
Why it matters: Changes in EPS guidance show how confident management is about future earnings. It shows the company's growth path.
Watch forManagement raises non-GAAP EPS guidance above $5.38 for FY'26.
Also watch forManagement lowers non-GAAP EPS guidance below $5.31 for FY'26.
Why it matters: Details on the new operating model will show how PayPal plans to drive growth. This is key for investors to understand future strategies.
Supportive ifManagement shares clear goals for the new operating model on the earnings call on August 4, 2026.
Worry ifNo clear updates or goals are shared about the new operating model during the earnings call.
Why it matters: Progress in share buybacks shows that management trusts the company's value.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of share buybacks exceeding $1 billion in Q2 2026.
Worry ifNo big share buyback news in Q2 2026.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$115 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $343 loss on $10,000 · 3.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,855 loss on $10,000 · 48.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Active accounts growth shows PayPal's ability to attract and retain users. It is key for future revenue growth.
Watch forActive accounts increase by more than 1% in Q3.
Also watch forActive accounts decrease or stay flat in Q3.
Why it matters: Regular share buybacks help support stock price and show a commitment to returning money.
Supportive ifShare repurchases exceed $1.5 billion in the next quarter.
Worry ifShare repurchases fall below $1.5 billion in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Active accounts are key to PayPal's growth. A decline could signal issues with customer engagement.
Worry ifActive accounts show no growth or decline in the next quarter.
Less concerning ifActive accounts increase by more than 1% in the next quarter.
Why it matters: The new model aims to drive growth and streamline operations. Clarity on this could shape future performance.
Supportive ifManagement says the new model will help growth and keep them accountable.
Worry ifLack of clarity or negative feedback on the new model's potential impact on growth.
Why it matters: Growth in transaction margin dollars shows how well PayPal is controlling costs and making money. This affects their overall financial health.
Supportive ifTransaction margin dollars increase by more than 3% in Q3.
Worry ifTransaction margin dollars decline or grow less than 1% in Q3.
Why it matters: Growth in the BNPL segment is crucial for PayPal's strategy. Updates will signal success in this area.
Supportive ifPayPal sees a big rise in BNPL loan originations in Europe.
Worry ifReports show no growth or a drop in BNPL loan originations in Europe.
Why it matters: Total payment volume growth shows demand for PayPal's services. It shows how well the company is growing.
Supportive ifTotal payment volume increases year over year by more than 10% in Q3.
Worry ifTotal payment volume growth falls below 8% year over year in Q3.
Why it matters: Operating margin trends show how well PayPal is controlling costs. This affects profits and investor trust.
Worry ifGAAP operating margin improves to above 17% in Q3.
Less concerning ifGAAP operating margin drops below 16% in Q3.