Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-28 · fmp
Papa John's Pizza (PZZA)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$19.89-0.50%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.35 → 1.32 EPS · FY ending Dec 28, 2027 · 9 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 9 to 9; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for PZZA yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Quarterly dividend per share | The company pays a steady dividend of $0.46 per share. | Intact | dividend cut below $0.46 per share | Dividend per share: $0.46 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=$0.46 per share. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 6, 20260.46 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-28 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a transformation story with a mixed record of execution, rather than a low-risk compounder. The long-term thesis is intact and the signal recently improved from mixed to mildly favorable, while business risk remains high.
The valuation evidence describes PZZA as cheap versus peers, with a modest gap between expectations and the model’s view; confidence in that assessment is medium. The priced-in signal is tagged justified, and no fragility gates fired, so the evidence does not point to an especially fragile expectations setup.
Near term, recent financial performance is described as strong relative to the industry, and an August earnings beat supported the improved signal. Still, second-quarter global system-wide restaurant sales fell 4.8%, adjusted EBITDA was flat, and first-half free cash flow fell to $9.5 million from $36.5 million a year earlier. Management continues to pursue value options, innovation, and international growth, but delivery is mixed; the dividend suspension starting in the third quarter is intended to fund transformation investments.
A key favorable test is whether management reverses the lowered guidance and raises it next quarter. The multi-year view also depends on whether the transformation improves sales and cash generation, while results from sector bellwethers such as MCD, SBUX, and YUM may signal whether the consumer backdrop is helping or weakening.
Over the next one to three years, the thesis rests on converting transformation spending into stronger sales and cash flow; execution remains uncertain despite the intact thesis and improved recent signal. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| International sales grew 3.6% in Q1. |
| Broken |
| international sales growth falls below 1% YoY |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: ““While our transformation is taking longer than anticipated, we continue to execute our strategy with discipline and focus and are seeing encouraging progress, including a growing and highly engaged Papa Rewards membership, supply chain savings, and AI-driven improvements to the customer ordering experience.” “By accelerating investments to strengthen our competitive position, improve restaurant economics, and attract new customers, we can build an even stronger foundation to gain market share and drive sustainable long-term growth.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
North America comparable sales | A primary condition in Papa John's Pizza's published investment case. The stated target is >=-3% YoY. | Broken | North America sales decline worsens beyond -5% YoY | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: ““While our transformation is taking longer than anticipated, we continue to execute our strategy with discipline and focus and are seeing encouraging progress, including a growing and highly engaged Papa Rewards membership, supply chain savings, and AI-driven improvements to the customer ordering experience.” “By accelerating investments to strengthen our competitive position, improve restaurant economics, and attract new customers, we can build an even stronger foundation to gain market share and drive sustainable long-term growth.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Net cash provided by operating activities | Management aims to control costs and improve cash flow. | Broken | operating cash flow remains below $20M over next 4 quarters | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.72 → $1.32 · observed estimates
$1.89B → $1.84B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.72 | $1,887,967,218 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.72 | $1,887,967,218 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.71 | $1,887,867,218 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.71 | $1,887,867,218 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.71 | $1,887,867,218 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.71 | $1,887,867,218 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.71 | $1,887,867,218 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.71 | $1,887,867,218 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.71 | $1,887,867,218 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.71 | $1,887,044,680 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.71 | $1,887,044,680 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.71 | $1,887,044,680 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.71 | $1,887,044,680 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.71 | $1,887,044,680 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-07 | $1.71 | $1,887,044,680 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.71 | $1,887,044,680 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.71 | $1,887,044,680 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.71 | $1,887,044,680 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.71 | $1,887,044,680 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.71 | $1,887,044,680 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.71 | $1,887,044,680 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.71 | $1,887,044,680 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.71 | $1,887,044,680 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.71 | $1,887,044,680 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.71 | $1,887,044,680 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.71 | $1,887,044,680 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.35 | $1,844,039,724 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.35 | $1,844,039,724 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.35 | $1,844,039,724 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.35 | $1,844,039,724 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.35 | $1,844,039,724 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.35 | $1,844,039,724 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.35 | $1,844,039,724 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.35 | $1,844,039,724 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.35 | $1,844,039,724 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.35 | $1,844,039,724 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.35 | $1,844,039,724 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.35 | $1,844,039,724 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.35 | $1,844,039,724 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.35 | $1,844,039,724 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.35 | $1,844,039,724 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.35 | $1,844,039,724 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.35 | $1,844,039,724 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.35 | $1,844,039,724 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.35 | $1,844,039,724 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.35 | $1,844,039,724 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.35 | $1,844,039,724 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.35 | $1,844,039,724 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.35 | $1,844,039,724 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.35 | $1,844,039,724 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.35 | $1,844,039,724 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.35 | $1,844,039,724 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.35 | $1,844,039,724 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.35 | $1,844,039,724 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.35 | $1,844,039,724 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.35 | $1,844,039,724 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.35 | $1,844,039,724 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.35 | $1,844,039,724 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.35 | $1,844,039,724 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.35 | $1,844,039,724 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.35 | $1,844,039,724 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.35 | $1,844,039,724 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.35 | $1,844,039,724 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.35 | $1,844,039,724 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.35 | $1,843,050,471 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.35 | $1,843,050,471 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.35 | $1,843,050,471 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.35 | $1,843,050,471 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.35 | $1,843,050,471 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.35 | $1,843,050,471 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.35 | $1,843,050,471 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.35 | $1,843,050,471 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.35 | $1,843,050,471 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.35 | $1,843,050,471 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.35 | $1,843,050,471 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.35 | $1,843,050,471 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.35 | $1,843,050,471 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.35 | $1,843,050,471 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.35 | $1,843,050,471 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.35 | $1,843,050,471 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.35 | $1,843,050,471 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.35 | $1,843,050,471 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.35 | $1,843,050,471 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.33 | $1,841,419,702 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.33 | $1,841,419,702 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.33 | $1,841,419,702 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.33 | $1,841,419,702 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.33 | $1,841,419,702 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.33 | $1,841,419,702 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.33 | $1,841,419,702 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.33 | $1,841,419,702 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.33 | $1,841,419,702 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.33 | $1,841,419,702 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.33 | $1,841,419,702 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.33 | $1,841,419,702 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.32 | $1,837,921,961 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.32 | $1,837,921,961 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.32 | $1,837,921,961 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.32 | $1,837,921,961 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.32 | $1,837,921,961 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.32 | $1,837,921,961 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.32 | $1,838,839,238 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.32 | $1,838,839,238 | 9 / 10 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 10 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 3 recorded
0 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.