Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Qnity Electronics (Q)
NYSEInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$118.78-0.09%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
5.38 → 5.50 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 6 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 4 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for Q yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Achieve adjusted free cash flow of $500M to $600M in 2026 | Free cash flow is expected between $500M and $600M. | Under Pressure | adjusted free cash flow falls below $450M in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
Q is a growth-oriented technology business, but the evidence supports a measured rather than high-confidence thesis. The thesis is intact because recent financial performance remains in the top half of its industry, while momentum has weakened sharply.
The valuation evidence describes Q as cheap versus peers, with no major fragility signals and a justified priced-in assessment. The expectations gap is negative, but the evidence does not explain its precise meaning, so the market’s assumptions remain uncertain.
Near term, management’s raised 2026 revenue, adjusted free cash flow, and adjusted EPS goals are on track, supported by higher quarterly revenue and operating cash flow. Quarterly EPS has fluctuated, company momentum has fallen, and a recent litigation filing and CEO transition add uncertainty; the stated risk of a near-term miss is low.
The unfavorable scenario is a reversal of recently raised guidance, which could damage management’s credibility as well as lower expectations. Favorable conditions include Fed rate cuts and signs that major technology peers are stabilizing, while continued execution on the 2026 goals would support the multi-year thesis.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, Q’s thesis rests on delivering its higher 2026 goals despite weaker momentum and added company-specific uncertainty. The evidence points to an intact but not high-confidence view. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in Qnity Electronics's published investment case. The stated target is no further major leadership disruptions; maintain guidance. |
| Intact |
| additional key executive departures or guidance cuts |
Guidance raised to $5.77B-$5.83B vs $5.55B-$5.65B target Q3 beat with raised FY26 outlook; new CFO hired; no key departures. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Maintain operating margin near 30% in 2025 | Profit margins stay strong near 30%. | Intact | operating margin falls below 28% in FY25 | Operating margin: 19.31% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=30%. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 4, 202619.314206 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve revenue of $5.225B to $5.375B in 2026 | A primary condition in Qnity Electronics's published investment case. The stated target is $5.225B - $5.375B. | Intact | revenue falls below $5.0B in FY26 | Revenue: $1.556B FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: $5.225B - $5.375B. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 4, 20261,556,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$4.88 → $5.50 · observed estimates
$5.89B → $6.31B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $4.88 | $5,892,721,000 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-07-25 | $4.88 | $5,892,721,000 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-07-26 | $4.88 | $5,892,721,000 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-07-27 | $4.90 | $5,895,393,626 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-07-28 | $4.88 | $5,892,721,000 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-07-29 | $4.90 | $5,896,966,860 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-07-30 | $4.90 | $5,895,393,626 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-07-31 | $4.90 | $5,895,393,626 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-01 | $4.90 | $5,895,393,626 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-02 | $4.90 | $5,896,966,860 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-03 | $4.90 | $5,896,966,860 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-04 | $4.90 | $5,895,393,626 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-05 | $4.90 | $5,895,393,626 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-06 | $4.91 | $5,968,595,430 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-07 | $5.33 | $6,194,984,250 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-08 | $5.36 | $6,296,310,880 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-09 | $5.33 | $6,194,984,250 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-10 | $5.33 | $6,194,984,250 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-12 | $5.36 | $6,296,310,880 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-13 | $5.33 | $6,194,984,250 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-14 | $5.33 | $6,194,984,250 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-15 | $5.33 | $6,194,984,250 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-16 | $5.33 | $6,194,984,250 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-17 | $5.33 | $6,194,984,250 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-18 | $5.33 | $6,194,984,250 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-19 | $5.33 | $6,194,984,250 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-20 | $5.38 | $6,225,859,250 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-21 | $5.38 | $6,225,859,250 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-22 | $5.38 | $6,225,859,250 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-23 | $5.38 | $6,225,859,250 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-24 | $5.38 | $6,225,859,250 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-25 | $5.38 | $6,225,859,250 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-26 | $5.38 | $6,225,859,250 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-27 | $5.38 | $6,225,859,250 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-28 | $5.38 | $6,225,859,250 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-29 | $5.38 | $6,225,859,250 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-30 | $5.38 | $6,225,859,250 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-31 | $5.38 | $6,225,859,250 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-01 | $5.38 | $6,225,859,250 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-02 | $5.38 | $6,225,859,250 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-03 | $5.38 | $6,225,859,250 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-04 | $5.38 | $6,225,859,250 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-05 | $5.38 | $6,225,859,250 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-06 | $5.38 | $6,225,859,250 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-07 | $5.38 | $6,225,859,250 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-08 | $5.38 | $6,225,859,250 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-09 | $5.38 | $6,225,859,250 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-10 | $5.38 | $6,225,859,250 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-11 | $5.38 | $6,225,859,250 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-12 | $5.38 | $6,225,859,250 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-13 | $5.38 | $6,225,859,250 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-14 | $5.38 | $6,225,859,250 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-15 | $5.38 | $6,225,859,250 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-16 | $5.38 | $6,225,859,250 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-17 | $5.38 | $6,225,859,250 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-18 | $5.38 | $6,225,859,250 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-19 | $5.38 | $6,225,859,250 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-20 | $5.38 | $6,225,859,250 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-21 | $5.38 | $6,225,859,250 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-22 | $5.38 | $6,277,696,286 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-23 | $5.38 | $6,277,696,286 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-24 | $5.38 | $6,277,696,286 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-25 | $5.38 | $6,277,696,286 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-26 | $5.38 | $6,277,696,286 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-27 | $5.38 | $6,277,696,286 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-28 | $5.38 | $6,277,696,286 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-29 | $5.38 | $6,277,696,286 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-30 | $5.38 | $6,277,696,286 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-01 | $5.38 | $6,277,696,286 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-02 | $5.38 | $6,277,696,286 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-03 | $5.38 | $6,277,696,286 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-04 | $5.38 | $6,277,696,286 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-05 | $5.38 | $6,277,696,286 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-06 | $5.38 | $6,277,696,286 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-07 | $5.38 | $6,277,696,286 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-08 | $5.38 | $6,277,696,286 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-09 | $5.38 | $6,277,696,286 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-10 | $5.38 | $6,277,696,286 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-11 | $5.38 | $6,277,696,286 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-12 | $5.38 | $6,277,696,286 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-13 | $5.43 | $6,277,696,286 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-14 | $5.43 | $6,277,696,286 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-15 | $5.43 | $6,272,734,250 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-16 | $5.48 | $6,308,109,250 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-17 | $5.48 | $6,308,109,250 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-18 | $5.48 | $6,308,109,250 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-19 | $5.48 | $6,308,109,250 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-20 | $5.50 | $6,308,109,250 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-21 | $5.50 | $6,308,109,250 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-22 | $5.50 | $6,308,109,250 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-23 | $5.50 | $6,308,109,250 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-24 | $5.50 | $6,308,109,250 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-25 | $5.50 | $6,308,109,250 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-26 | $5.50 | $6,308,109,250 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-27 | $5.50 | $6,308,109,250 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-28 | $5.50 | $6,308,109,250 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-29 | $5.50 | $6,308,109,250 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-30 | $5.50 | $6,308,109,250 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-31 | $5.50 | $6,308,109,250 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-11-01 | $5.50 | $6,308,109,250 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-11-02 | $5.50 | $6,308,109,250 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-11-03 | $5.50 | $6,308,109,250 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-11-04 | $5.50 | $6,308,109,250 | 6 / 7 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 10 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.