Qualcomm (QCOM)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$168.74+0.10%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · QCOM
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -15.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 1.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 17.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 71 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
QCOM — earnings miss
Dated 2026-07-29
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On July 29, 2026, QUALCOMM Incorporated (the Company) issued a press release regarding the Company’s financial results for its third quarter of fiscal 2026. A copy of that press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 hereto and incorporated herein by reference. The press release includes Non-GAAP financial measures as defined in Regulation G. The press release also includes the most directly comparable financial measures calculated and presented in…
Why it matters: Memory supply issues could limit Qualcomm's production and revenue growth. Addressing these constraints is key.
Supportive ifManagement announces a new deal. This deal helps with memory supply.
Worry ifThere are more delays and worse supply problems.
Why it matters: Initial shipments would show Qualcomm's entry into the data center market. This market is important for growth.
Supportive ifThey announced the first shipments of custom silicon to a big hyperscaler.
Worry ifNo announcement of shipments by the end of the calendar year.
Why it matters: Stable revenue means recovery from memory supply problems. This can help future growth.
Supportive ifQ3 handset revenue guidance reaches at least $7.9 billion.
Worry ifQ3 handset revenue guidance falls below $7.9 billion.
Why it matters: This growth rate is crucial for Qualcomm's long-term strategy and market positioning.
Supportive ifNon-handset revenue grows over 60% each year in FY27.
Worry ifNon-handset revenue growth is below 60% year-over-year in FY27.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$275 on $10,000 · ±2.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $471 loss on $10,000 · 4.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,097 loss on $10,000 · 41.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Understanding the impact helps gauge the overall health of Qualcomm's core business.
Worry ifQCT revenues decline more than 5% year over year in Q3.
Less concerning ifQCT revenues decline less than 5% year over year in Q3.
Why it matters: Stable or better EPS guidance would show confidence in Qualcomm's earnings during tough times.
Supportive ifQualcomm maintains or raises its EPS guidance for Q3 to at least $2.10.
Worry ifQualcomm lowers its EPS guidance for Q3 below $2.10.
Why it matters: Stabilizing revenue would confirm the outlook for recovery in the handset market. This is key for Qualcomm's growth.
Supportive ifQ3 handset revenue from Chinese customers is growing after hitting a low point.
Worry ifQ3 handset revenue from Chinese customers continues to decline year over year.
Why it matters: Fixing these issues is key for revenue recovery in handsets.
Watch forManagement shares a clear plan to fix memory supply issues.
Also watch forThere are no updates. Problems with memory supply are getting worse.
Why it matters: Keeping EPS guidance is key for investor trust and shows stability.
Supportive ifEPS guidance for Q4 FY26 is maintained at $2.05 or higher.
Worry ifEPS guidance for Q4 FY26 is lowered below $2.05.
Why it matters: Lower revenue guidance shows problems in the handset market and supply chain.
Worry ifQ4 FY26 revenue guidance falls below $9.7 billion.
Less concerning ifQ4 FY26 revenue guidance meets or exceeds $10.5 billion.
Why it matters: Strong growth in automotive revenue helps Qualcomm's strategy. It also balances out handset weakness.
Supportive ifQCT Automotive revenue grows over 20% from last year.
Worry ifQCT Automotive revenue growth is under 20% from last year.
Why it matters: The acquisition could boost Qualcomm's skills in AI and data centers, helping growth.
Supportive ifQualcomm shares good news about the Modular Inc purchase.
Worry ifQualcomm delays or cancels the Modular Inc purchase.