Qualcomm (QCOM)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-11-05
$156.75-9.49%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · QCOM
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -5.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 10.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 15.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 49 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
QCOM — earnings miss
Dated 2026-11-04
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On November 4, 2026, QUALCOMM Incorporated (the Company) issued a press release regarding the Company’s financial results for its fourth quarter and fiscal year ended September 27, 2026. A copy of that press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 hereto and incorporated herein by reference. The press release includes Non-GAAP financial measures as defined in Regulation G. The press release also includes the most directly comparable financial measur…
Why it matters: Qualcomm ties its growth plan to faster sales outside handsets. Meeting this mark would show that newer markets are gaining weight.
Supportive ifReported non-handset revenue growth is above 60% year over year in fiscal 2027.
Worry ifReported non-handset revenue growth is 60% or lower year over year in fiscal 2027.
Why it matters: Qualcomm says it is raising product prices to cover higher costs. Margin gains would show that the price changes are working.
Supportive ifQCT EBT as a share of revenue rises above 26% in a later quarter, while Qualcomm links the gain to its price changes.
Worry ifQCT EBT as a share of revenue stays at or below 26% in a later quarter, with no reported margin gain from price changes.
Why it matters: The report tests whether revenue and profit stay near the latest guide. It also gives a fresh read on handset demand and costs.
Watch forQ4 revenue is at least $9.7 billion and non-GAAP EPS is at least $2.05. Q1 guidance then points to higher revenue.
Also watch forQ4 revenue is below $9.7 billion or non-GAAP EPS is below $2.05. Q1 guidance points to lower revenue.
Why it matters: Handset sales fell 20% year over year in Q3. A recovery would ease pressure from memory limits and weak China demand.
Watch forQCT handset revenue from Chinese customers grows sequentially after its Q3 FY26 low.
Also watch forQCT handset revenue from Chinese customers does not grow from its Q3 FY26 low. Or management says the low will come later.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$185 on $10,000 · ±1.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $592 loss on $10,000 · 5.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,097 loss on $10,000 · 41.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.