Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-28 · fmp
Qualcomm (QCOM)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$173.19+5.33%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
13.10 → 12.83 EPS · FY ending Sep 28, 2028 · 12 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 9 to 12; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for QCOM yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Successful AI partnerships and M&A execution | A supporting condition in Qualcomm's published investment case. The stated target is Sustain AI revenue growth and complete key acquisitions. | Improving | Key AI partnerships fail or acquisitions do not close | Qualitative: Starlink 5G deal closed; Modular M&A pending Qualcomm powers Starlink US 5G; Modular acquisition agreed; Q4 earnings beat. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-28 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a diversified technology business with a growth thesis tied to expanding non-handset revenue. The long-term thesis is intact, though confidence has eased to medium and recent performance has been mixed.
The evidence describes QCOM as cheap versus peers, while the expectations gap is slightly negative, suggesting expectations are not especially demanding. Priced-in fragility is low and tagged as justified, but confidence in the valuation view is medium.
Over the multi-year view, management’s non-handset growth plan appears on track, with recent growth in QCT non-Apple revenue and Automotive and IoT supporting the diversification effort. Near term, a July earnings miss, a run of misses, and memory supply constraints are risks, although the stated miss probability is low.
The multi-year thesis hinges on continued growth beyond handsets and management’s ability to address memory supply constraints. Near term, a guidance cut would be a negative; easier Fed policy and steadier results from large technology peers are possible tailwinds.
Over the next one to three years, QCOM’s diversification strategy supports an intact long-term thesis, but execution and near-term risks remain important. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Qualcomm leads in 5G and AI chips with strong EPS guidance near $2.2 next quarter. |
| Broken |
| EPS guidance falls below $2.1 for 2026 Q2 |
Diluted EPS: $1.87 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: EPS $2.1 - $2.3. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Jul 29, 20261.87 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Maintain stable profit margins near recent levels | Profit margins and cash flow remain stable. | Broken | Profit margins decline significantly below recent levels | Net margin: 12.13% FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: Maintain profit margins near current levels. Target percentage unit is not explicit. Nov 4, 202612.129432 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue near $9.6 billion in 2026 Q2 | A primary condition in Qualcomm's published investment case. The stated target is Revenue >= $9.2 billion. | Under Pressure | Revenue falls below $9.2 billion in 2026 Q2 | Revenue: $9.947B FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: Revenue >= $9.2 billion. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Jul 29, 20269,947,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$13.10 → $12.83 · observed estimates
$52.34B → $51.94B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-29 | $13.10 | $52,341,565,524 | 9 / 24 |
| 2026-09-30 | $13.10 | $52,341,565,524 | 9 / 24 |
| 2026-10-01 | $13.10 | $52,341,565,524 | 9 / 24 |
| 2026-10-02 | $13.10 | $52,341,565,524 | 9 / 24 |
| 2026-10-03 | $13.10 | $52,341,565,524 | 9 / 24 |
| 2026-10-04 | $13.10 | $52,341,565,524 | 9 / 24 |
| 2026-10-05 | $13.10 | $52,341,565,524 | 9 / 24 |
| 2026-10-06 | $13.07 | $52,371,271,278 | 9 / 24 |
| 2026-10-07 | $13.07 | $52,371,271,278 | 9 / 24 |
| 2026-10-08 | $13.07 | $52,371,271,278 | 9 / 24 |
| 2026-10-09 | $13.07 | $52,371,271,278 | 9 / 24 |
| 2026-10-10 | $13.07 | $52,371,271,278 | 9 / 24 |
| 2026-10-11 | $13.07 | $52,371,271,278 | 9 / 24 |
| 2026-10-12 | $13.07 | $52,371,271,278 | 9 / 24 |
| 2026-10-13 | $13.07 | $52,371,271,278 | 9 / 24 |
| 2026-10-14 | $13.07 | $52,371,271,278 | 9 / 24 |
| 2026-10-15 | $13.07 | $52,371,271,278 | 9 / 24 |
| 2026-10-16 | $13.02 | $52,241,187,945 | 9 / 24 |
| 2026-10-17 | $13.02 | $52,241,187,945 | 9 / 24 |
| 2026-10-18 | $13.02 | $52,241,187,945 | 10 / 24 |
| 2026-10-19 | $13.02 | $52,241,187,945 | 10 / 24 |
| 2026-10-20 | $13.02 | $52,241,187,466 | 10 / 24 |
| 2026-10-21 | $13.02 | $52,241,187,466 | 10 / 24 |
| 2026-10-22 | $12.98 | $52,231,859,967 | 10 / 24 |
| 2026-10-23 | $12.98 | $52,231,859,967 | 11 / 25 |
| 2026-10-24 | $12.98 | $52,231,859,967 | 11 / 25 |
| 2026-10-25 | $12.98 | $52,231,859,967 | 11 / 25 |
| 2026-10-26 | $12.98 | $52,231,859,967 | 11 / 25 |
| 2026-10-27 | $12.98 | $52,231,859,967 | 11 / 25 |
| 2026-10-28 | $12.97 | $52,196,572,415 | 11 / 25 |
| 2026-10-29 | $12.97 | $52,196,572,415 | 11 / 25 |
| 2026-10-30 | $12.97 | $52,196,572,415 | 11 / 25 |
| 2026-10-31 | $12.97 | $52,196,572,415 | 11 / 25 |
| 2026-11-01 | $12.97 | $52,196,572,415 | 11 / 25 |
| 2026-11-02 | $12.97 | $52,196,572,415 | 11 / 25 |
| 2026-11-03 | $12.83 | $51,941,836,970 | 11 / 25 |
| 2026-11-04 | $12.83 | $51,941,836,970 | 12 / 24 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 11 Buy / Strong Buy · 23 Hold · 3 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 3 recorded
0 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.