QCR Holdings, Inc. (QCRH)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$101.12-2.58%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · QCRH
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 2.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -7.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 10.1 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 230 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
QCRH — dividend update
Dated 2026-08-24
Other Events. On August 20, 2026, the Company declared a cash dividend of $0.15 per share of its common stock. The dividend is payable on October 5, 2026 to stockholders of record on September 18, 2026. On August 24, 2026, the Company issued a press release regarding the cash dividend. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference.
Why it matters: Management guided for a mostly flat Q4 margin. Deposit costs and funding mix may offset higher asset yields.
Watch forQ4 NIM TEY is 3.55% or higher, near or above Q3's 3.58%.
Also watch forQ4 NIM TEY falls below 3.55%, showing a decline from Q3.
Why it matters: The company targets annual expense growth below 5%. Spending above its Q4 range would test that plan.
Worry ifQ4 noninterest costs exceed $57 million.
Less concerning ifQ4 noninterest expense stays at or below $57 million.
Why it matters: Loan growth supports interest income. Management reaffirmed this range for Q4.
Supportive ifQ4 gross loan growth, at an annual rate and excluding planned m2 runoff, lands between 10% and 15%.
Worry ifQ4 gross loan growth, at an annual rate and excluding planned m2 runoff, falls below 10%.
Why it matters: Capital markets revenue rose to $16.9 million in Q3. The Q4 range tests whether shifted deals close.
Supportive ifQ4 capital markets revenue lands between $18 million and $20 million.
Worry ifQ4 capital markets revenue falls below $18 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$89 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $189 loss on $10,000 · 1.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,526 loss on $10,000 · 15.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The new sale plan aims to lower costs and free regulatory capital. A completed deal would test that plan.
Supportive ifBy early 2027, QCRH completes and reports its first LIHTC loan sale under the revised structure.
Worry ifBy the end of Q1 2027, the company reports no sale under the revised structure. Or it reports a delay.