Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
QUINCE THERAPEUTICS INC (QNCX)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-05
$33.16-1.16%
Close 2026-11-03 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for QNCX yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Successful integration of Orphai Entities acquisition | Quince completed the acquisition of Orphai Entities in May 2026. | Intact | Fails to complete integration or realize benefits from Orphai acquisition within next 4 quarters | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 3, 2026Last status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 11, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a speculative, loss-making clinical-stage company, not a proven compounder. The long-term thesis is in a watch state: management has named clinical priorities, but the supplied evidence does not show clinical delivery or improving operating results.
The evidence does not provide a valuation comparison or clear market expectations, so whether QNCX looks cheap, fair, or expensive versus peers cannot be established. It indicates that weak execution quality is reflected, but not a broader combination of expensive valuation and business turbulence.
Near-term earnings risk is elevated, with erratic recent surprises and weak recent performance; the evidence gives a 69% miss probability. The company reported no revenue in either 2026-Q1 or 2026-Q2, and operating losses widened in Q2. Management cited $116 million in cash as of June 30, expected to fund operations through the end of 2028, while CEO and other leadership changes add uncertainty.
Over the next several quarters, the central test is whether QNCX advances LAM-001 and meets its planned clinical milestones; the supplied evidence does not yet establish progress. A guidance cut would add near-term risk, while improving Healthcare-sector momentum could provide support to the sector backdrop. Weaker employment data could increase recession concerns and weigh on cyclical names, though the evidence does not establish how strongly that would affect QNCX.
For the 1-to-3-year view, QNCX has a stated cash runway and a clear clinical focus, but no reported revenue, worsening operating losses, and unproven milestone delivery leave the thesis fragile. Confidence is low, and progress depends on clinical execution and disciplined funding through the planned milestones. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| The reverse stock split supports capital structure stability. |
| Recovered |
| Capital structure destabilizes or reverse split fails to support listing compliance |
Nasdaq compliance regained (May 2026) News confirms QNCX regained compliance with Nasdaq listing requirements on 2026-05-18, resolving the primary risk to the driver. Nov 3, 2026Last status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Reduce EPS losses | Analysts expect EPS losses to improve from -8.8 in Q3 2026 to -5.3 for full year 2026. | Improving | EPS loss worsens beyond -5.3 USD per share in FY 2026 | Diluted EPS: $-12.31 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: EPS loss improves to >= -5.3 USD per share in FY 2026. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 14, 2026-12.31 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Maintain Nasdaq listing compliance | The company regained Nasdaq listing compliance, addressing regulatory risks. | Under Pressure | Fails to maintain Nasdaq listing compliance within next 4 quarters | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-41.80 → $-4.57 · observed estimates
$0.02B → $0.02B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-41.80 | $17,054,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-41.80 | $17,054,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-41.80 | $17,054,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-5.28 | $12,790,500 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-5.28 | $12,790,500 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-5.28 | $12,790,500 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-30.11 | $17,054,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-30.11 | $17,054,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-30.11 | $17,054,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-30.11 | $17,054,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-5.76 | $0 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-5.76 | $0 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-30.11 | $17,054,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-5.76 | $0 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-30.11 | $17,054,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-5.76 | $0 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-30.11 | $17,054,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-5.76 | $0 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-5.76 | $0 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-30.11 | $17,054,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-30.11 | $17,054,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-30.11 | $17,054,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-30.11 | $17,054,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-30.11 | $17,054,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-30.11 | $17,054,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-30.11 | $17,054,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-4.46 | $17,054,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-6.67 | $17,054,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-6.67 | $17,054,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-6.67 | $17,054,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-6.67 | $17,054,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-6.67 | $17,054,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-6.67 | $17,054,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-6.67 | $17,054,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-6.67 | $17,054,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-6.67 | $17,054,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-6.67 | $17,054,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-6.67 | $17,054,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-6.67 | $17,054,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-6.67 | $17,054,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-6.67 | $17,054,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-6.67 | $17,054,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-4.46 | $17,054,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-4.46 | $17,054,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-4.46 | $17,054,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-4.46 | $17,054,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-4.46 | $17,054,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-4.46 | $17,054,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-4.46 | $17,054,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-4.46 | $17,054,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-4.46 | $17,054,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-4.46 | $17,054,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-4.46 | $17,054,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-4.46 | $17,054,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-4.46 | $17,054,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-4.46 | $17,054,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-4.46 | $17,054,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-4.46 | $17,054,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-4.46 | $17,054,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-4.46 | $17,054,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-4.74 | $17,054,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-4.74 | $17,054,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-4.74 | $17,054,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-4.74 | $17,054,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-4.74 | $17,054,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-4.74 | $17,054,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-4.77 | $17,054,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-4.77 | $17,054,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-4.77 | $17,054,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-4.77 | $17,054,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-4.77 | $17,054,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-4.77 | $17,054,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-4.77 | $17,054,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-4.77 | $17,054,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-4.77 | $17,054,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-4.77 | $17,054,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-4.77 | $17,054,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-4.77 | $17,054,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-4.57 | $17,054,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-4.57 | $17,054,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-4.57 | $17,054,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-4.57 | $17,054,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-4.57 | $17,054,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-4.57 | $17,054,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-4.57 | $17,054,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-4.57 | $17,054,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-4.57 | $17,054,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-4.57 | $17,054,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-4.57 | $17,054,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-4.57 | $17,054,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-4.57 | $17,054,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-4.57 | $17,054,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-4.57 | $17,054,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-4.57 | $17,054,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-4.57 | $17,054,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-4.57 | $17,054,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-4.57 | $17,054,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-4.57 | $17,054,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-4.57 | $17,054,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-4.57 | $17,054,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-4.57 | $17,054,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-4.57 | $17,054,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-4.57 | $17,054,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-05 | $-4.57 | $17,054,000 | 4 / 4 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 8 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 0 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.