QuinStreet, Inc. (QNST)
NASDAQCommunication ServicesAdvertising AgenciesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$18.73-0.16%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQCommunication ServicesAdvertising AgenciesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · QNST
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -28.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 13.5% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 42.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 13 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
QNST — earnings miss
Dated 2026-05-07
of this Current Report on Form 8-K, including the exhibit, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference into the Company’s filings with the SEC under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.
Why it matters: AI is a key focus for QuinStreet. Success here could drive significant growth.
Watch forRevenue growth from AI is more than 20% compared to last year.
Also watch forRevenue growth attributed to AI is less than 10% year-over-year.
Why it matters: Strong growth in Auto Insurance revenue shows demand. This growth shows QuinStreet's strong market position.
Supportive ifAuto Insurance revenue was up year-over-year for Q4.
Worry ifAuto Insurance revenue was down year-over-year for Q4.
Why it matters: This range indicates strong margin growth. It shows how well the company controls costs.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA for Q1 is between $38 and $40 million.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA for Q1 is below $38 million.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is a key priority for QuinStreet. A drop below this level raises concerns.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth reported below 10% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ2 revenue growth reported at or above 10% year over year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$157 on $10,000 · ±1.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $422 loss on $10,000 · 4.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,799 loss on $10,000 · 38.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Margin growth shows better efficiency and profit. It shows management can control costs while increasing revenue.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA margin is at 10.4% or higher. This shows good cost management.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA margin is below 10%. This suggests problems in keeping profits.
Why it matters: The sector's cooling growth could impact QuinStreet's performance. It signals broader challenges.
Worry ifSector revenue growth reported below its median rate.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth stays at or above its median rate.
Why it matters: This revenue range implies 31% growth year-over-year. It tests management's growth outlook.
Supportive ifQ1 2027 revenue reported within the range of $370 to $380 million.
Worry ifQ1 2027 revenue falls below $370 million.
Why it matters: Enhancing cash from operations is key for QuinStreet's financial health. Strong cash flow supports growth.
Supportive ifCash from operations grows more than 15% year over year.
Worry ifCash from operations grows less than 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Updates on AI revenue growth will show how QuinStreet uses technology to compete. This may affect future growth.
Watch forManagement reports strong revenue growth from AI. This shows successful use of technology.
Also watch forManagement says AI revenue growth is flat or down. This suggests lost chances.
Why it matters: An increase in sector growth could benefit QuinStreet's performance.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth exceeds 8% year over year.
Worry ifSector revenue growth drops below 4% year over year.
Why it matters: This growth target shows management's trust in market chances. It tests their long-term plan.
Supportive ifFull fiscal year 2027 revenue reported at or above $1.45 billion.
Worry ifFull fiscal year 2027 revenue reported below $1.45 billion.
Why it matters: Management expects a margin of 10.4%. This shows profits are getting better.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA margin is at least 10.4%.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA margin is less than 10.4%.
Why it matters: This guidance signals continued strong growth. It is a key indicator of future performance.
Supportive ifQ1 revenue guidance falls within the range of $370 to $380 million.
Worry ifQ1 revenue guidance drops below $370 million.
Why it matters: Strong cash flow supports growth and stability. It shows the company's ability to fund operations.
Supportive ifOperating cash flow remains above $130 million for fiscal year 2026.
Worry ifOperating cash flow falls well below $130 million.