Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Quantum-Si, Inc. (QSI)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$1.17-9.30%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for QSI yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Limit total cash usage to $93 million in 2026 | It plans to limit operating expenses to $98 million and cash usage to $93 million. | Broken | cash usage exceeds $93 million in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a speculative growth business, not a proven earnings compounder: it is loss-making, and current revenue is limited during the transition to Proteus. The long-term thesis is intact, with management’s launch and cost priorities on track, but overall risk is high.
QSI trades at a 58% premium to peers, and the valuation model has low confidence. The evidence describes the valuation as unjustified, with an expectations gap tied to the potential value of future growth, so the market appears to give meaningful weight to Proteus while the business has not yet shown substantial revenue.
Near term, revenue is expected to remain limited during the transition: first-quarter revenue fell from $842,000 to $258,000 year over year, while 2026 guidance remains about $1 million. Management says Proteus sequencing is progressing, with 19 amino acids detected and a goal of detecting all 20 by year-end 2026, supporting a planned Q2 2027 commercial launch; adjusted operating expenses were $21.4 million in the first quarter against a $98 million annual limit. Risk has risen to high, and a guidance cut would be a meaningful setback, despite reaffirmed guidance and an August earnings beat.
The multi-year thesis depends on completing Proteus development and reaching the planned Q2 2027 launch while maintaining cost discipline. Near term, a guidance cut or further labor-market weakening could pressure the outlook, while continued strong results and higher guidance from healthcare peers could support sector momentum. The available evidence gives limited detail on how Proteus revenue may develop after launch.
Over the next one to three years, QSI remains an execution-dependent, high-risk growth story with limited current revenue and an expensive valuation relative to peers. Its long-term thesis hinges on Proteus reaching launch and translating development progress into stronger business results. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| It plans to limit operating expenses to $98 million and cash usage to $93 million. |
| Intact |
| operating expenses exceed $98 million in FY26 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 1 of 1 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Adjusted total operating expenses were $21.4 million in the first quarter of 2026 compared to $22.9 million for the same period in the prior year.” “2026 Financial Guidance For the full year 2026 , the Company reiterated the following financial guidance, as initially issued on March 3, 2026: Revenue: Approximately $1.0 million Adjusted total operating expenses: $98.0 million or less Total cash usage: $93.0 million or less 2026 will continue to represent a transition year as the Company prioritizes positioning Proteus for a successful commercial launch and long-term adoption.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Achieve at least $1 million revenue in 2026 | A primary condition in Quantum-Si, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $1 million. | Intact | revenue falls below $1 million in FY26 | Revenue: $344,000 FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $1 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 13, 2026344,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.36 → $-0.36 · observed estimates
$0.01B → $0.01B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.36 | $9,646,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.36 | $9,646,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.36 | $9,646,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.36 | $9,646,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.36 | $9,646,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.36 | $9,646,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.40 | $9,746,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.40 | $9,746,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.40 | $9,746,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.40 | $9,746,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.40 | $9,746,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.36 | $9,646,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.40 | $9,746,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.40 | $9,746,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-0.40 | $9,746,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.36 | $9,646,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.36 | $9,646,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.40 | $9,746,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.36 | $9,646,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.40 | $9,746,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.40 | $9,746,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.40 | $9,746,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.40 | $9,746,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.40 | $9,746,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.40 | $9,746,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.40 | $9,746,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.36 | $5,791,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.36 | $5,791,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.36 | $5,791,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.36 | $5,791,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.36 | $5,791,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.36 | $5,791,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.36 | $5,791,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.36 | $5,791,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.36 | $5,791,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.36 | $5,791,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.36 | $5,791,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.36 | $5,791,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.36 | $5,791,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.36 | $5,791,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.36 | $5,791,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.36 | $5,791,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.36 | $5,791,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.36 | $5,791,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.36 | $5,791,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.36 | $5,791,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.36 | $5,791,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.36 | $5,791,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.36 | $5,791,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.36 | $5,791,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.36 | $5,791,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.36 | $5,791,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.36 | $5,791,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.36 | $5,791,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.36 | $5,791,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.36 | $5,791,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.36 | $5,791,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.36 | $5,791,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.36 | $5,791,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.36 | $5,791,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.36 | $5,791,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.36 | $5,791,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.36 | $5,791,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.36 | $5,791,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.36 | $5,791,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.36 | $5,791,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.36 | $5,791,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.36 | $5,797,300 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.36 | $5,797,300 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.36 | $5,797,300 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.36 | $5,797,300 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.36 | $5,797,300 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.36 | $5,797,300 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.36 | $5,797,300 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.36 | $5,797,300 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.36 | $5,797,300 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.36 | $5,797,300 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.36 | $5,797,300 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.36 | $5,797,300 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.36 | $5,797,300 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.36 | $5,797,300 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.36 | $5,797,300 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.36 | $5,797,300 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.36 | $5,797,300 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.36 | $5,797,300 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.36 | $5,797,300 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.36 | $5,797,300 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.36 | $5,963,967 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.36 | $5,963,967 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.36 | $5,963,967 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.36 | $5,963,967 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.36 | $5,963,967 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.36 | $5,963,967 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.36 | $5,963,967 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.36 | $5,963,967 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.36 | $5,963,967 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.36 | $5,963,967 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.36 | $5,963,967 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.36 | $5,963,967 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.36 | $5,963,967 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.36 | $5,963,967 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.36 | $5,963,967 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.36 | $5,963,967 | 1 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.