Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Quanterix Corp. (QTRX)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-11-05
$2.76-9.21%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for QTRX yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Gross margin improves to about 51% in FY26 | Gross margin should improve to about 51% by year-end. | Broken | Gross margin falls below 45% in FY26 | Gross margin: 38.52% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~51%. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 10, 202638.515772 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 9, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earningsObserved price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk growth business with a turnaround-like execution challenge, not a proven profitable compounder. Its long-term thesis is on watch: revenue has grown, but performance is weak and the overall signal recently shifted from mildly favorable to mixed.
The valuation model labels QTRX cheap versus peers, while also showing a negative expectations gap; this points to cautious market expectations. Model confidence is low, and the snapshot gives no clear evidence that current expectations fully account for the execution and cash-flow risks.
Near term, revenue growth and management’s commercial reorganization support progress, but recent results were below expectations and gross margin fell from 50.9% to 47.9% between the first and second quarters of 2026. Management lowered its 2026 gross-margin and year-end cash forecasts, so reaching cash-flow breakeven in 2027 remains uncertain despite cash rising to $47.5 million in the second quarter.
The favorable case depends on improved commercial execution, a recovery in guidance, and progress toward 2027 cash-flow breakeven. The unfavorable case depends on further margin or cash pressure, or a weakening jobs backdrop that raises recession concerns; continued strength from healthcare sector bellwethers could help support the sector backdrop.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, QTRX’s long-term thesis rests on whether revenue growth can translate into stronger margins and a credible path to cash-flow breakeven. Evidence is mixed, and execution and liquidity remain the main risks. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Quanterix is improving its leadership with new CFO and COO hires. |
| Intact |
| Additional unexpected departures of CFO or COO |
0 unexpected departures vs 0 allowed Jason Faessler (CFO) and Anthony Catalano (COO) appointed as external hires; no subsequent departures recorded. Nov 5, 2026Last status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue reaches about $171.5 million in FY26 | Revenue is expected to grow about 19% in 2026 to $171.5 million. | Under Pressure | Revenue falls below $130 million in FY26 | Revenue: $32.906M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$171.5M. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 10, 202632,906,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-1.36 → $-1.24 · observed estimates
$0.19B → $0.16B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-1.36 | $188,700,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-1.36 | $188,700,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-1.36 | $188,700,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-1.36 | $188,700,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-1.36 | $188,700,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-1.36 | $188,700,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-1.32 | $188,642,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-1.36 | $188,700,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-1.32 | $188,642,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-1.32 | $188,642,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-1.32 | $188,642,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-1.32 | $188,642,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-1.32 | $188,642,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-1.32 | $188,642,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-1.32 | $188,642,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-1.36 | $188,700,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-1.32 | $188,642,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-1.32 | $188,642,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-1.32 | $188,642,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-1.32 | $188,642,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-1.32 | $188,642,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-1.32 | $188,642,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-1.32 | $188,642,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-1.32 | $188,642,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-1.32 | $188,642,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-1.32 | $188,642,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-1.24 | $158,073,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-1.24 | $158,073,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-1.24 | $158,073,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-1.24 | $158,073,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-1.24 | $158,073,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-1.24 | $158,073,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-1.24 | $158,073,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-1.24 | $158,073,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-1.24 | $158,073,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-1.24 | $158,073,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-1.24 | $158,073,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-1.24 | $158,073,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-1.24 | $158,073,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-1.24 | $158,073,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-1.24 | $158,073,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-1.24 | $158,073,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-1.24 | $158,073,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-1.24 | $158,073,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-1.24 | $158,073,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-1.24 | $158,073,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-1.24 | $158,073,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-1.24 | $158,073,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-1.24 | $158,073,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-1.24 | $158,073,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-1.24 | $158,073,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-1.24 | $158,073,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-1.24 | $158,073,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-1.24 | $158,073,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-1.24 | $158,073,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-1.24 | $158,073,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-1.24 | $158,073,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-1.24 | $158,073,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-1.24 | $158,073,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-1.24 | $158,073,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-1.24 | $158,073,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-1.24 | $158,073,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-1.24 | $158,073,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-1.24 | $158,073,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-1.24 | $158,073,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-1.24 | $158,073,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-1.24 | $158,073,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-1.24 | $158,073,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-1.24 | $158,073,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-1.24 | $158,073,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-1.24 | $158,073,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-1.24 | $158,073,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-1.24 | $158,073,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-1.24 | $158,073,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-1.24 | $158,073,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-1.24 | $158,073,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-1.24 | $158,073,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-1.24 | $158,073,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-1.24 | $158,073,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-1.24 | $158,073,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-1.24 | $158,073,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-1.24 | $157,473,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-1.24 | $157,473,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-1.24 | $157,473,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-1.24 | $157,473,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-1.24 | $157,473,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-1.24 | $157,473,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-1.24 | $157,373,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-1.24 | $157,373,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-1.24 | $157,373,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-1.24 | $157,373,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-1.24 | $157,373,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-1.24 | $157,373,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-1.24 | $157,373,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-1.24 | $157,373,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-1.24 | $157,373,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-1.24 | $157,373,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-1.24 | $157,373,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-1.24 | $157,373,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-1.24 | $157,373,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-1.24 | $157,373,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-1.24 | $157,373,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-1.24 | $157,373,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-05 | $-1.24 | $157,373,667 | 1 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.