Ryder (R)
NYSEIndustrialsRental & Leasing ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-05
$270.16-4.58%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsRental & Leasing ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · R
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -24.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 6.9% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 31.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 8 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
R — CEO transition
Dated 2025-12-12
CEO — Robert E. Sanchez: The CEO is retiring but transitioning to Executive Chair with a named internal successor (COO) already appointed, indicating an orderly succession rather than a sudden loss of leadership.
Why it matters: DTS revenue fell as its fleet count declined. Growth would signal a turn from that drag; another decline would show it remains.
Watch forDTS operating revenue grows year over year and EBT exceeds the prior-year $36 million.
Also watch forDTS operating revenue falls at least 3% year over year or EBT falls below $34 million.
Why it matters: SCS drove much of the revenue growth, but lost automotive business and new work ramp-up weighed on results. Watch revenue and profit together.
Watch forSCS operating revenue grows at least 9% year over year and its EBT margin rises above 8.1%.
Also watch forSCS operating revenue growth falls below 5% year over year or its EBT margin drops below 8.1%.
Why it matters: Management named $70 million as its 2026 goal. A reported total would show whether these efforts are delivering as planned.
Supportive ifRyder reports at least $70 million in benefits from strategic plans in 2026.
Worry ifRyder reports less than $70 million in 2026 benefits, or says the goal was not met.
Why it matters: Ryder kept its cash flow range unchanged despite higher earnings. The year-end result will test that outlook.
Watch for2026 free cash flow is at least $700 million and no more than $800 million.
Also watch for2026 free cash flow falls below $700 million or exceeds $800 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$90 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $319 loss on $10,000 · 3.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,872 loss on $10,000 · 18.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Ryder raised its 2026 profit range after strong third-quarter results. Results above the new range would show that earnings growth continued.
Supportive ifRyder reports 2026 comparable EPS above $15.05, the top of its raised range.
Worry ifRyder reports 2026 comparable EPS below $14.85, the bottom of its raised range.
Why it matters: Ryder raised rental fleet spending to $500 million to serve 2027 demand. Higher use would show the larger fleet is finding work.
Supportive ifRental power-fleet use rises above 77%, its Q3 level. Ryder reports its 2027 rental fleet plans.
Worry ifRental power-fleet use falls below 70%, its Q3 2025 level. Or Ryder cuts its $500 million rental investment plan.