Ryder (R)
NYSEIndustrialsRental & Leasing ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$248.44+0.60%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsRental & Leasing ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · R
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -20.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 7.0% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 27.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 11 industry peers
R — CEO transition
Dated 2025-12-12
CEO — Robert E. Sanchez: The CEO is retiring but transitioning to Executive Chair with a named internal successor (COO) already appointed, indicating an orderly succession rather than a sudden loss of leadership.
Why it matters: Keeping this guidance shows strong cash flow and supports returns to shareholders.
Watch forFree cash flow guidance remains unchanged at $700 million to $800 million.
Also watch forFree cash flow guidance is lowered below $700 million, indicating cash flow concerns.
Why it matters: Free cash flow is crucial for funding growth and returning capital to shareholders.
Watch forFree cash flow exceeds $800 million in Q3 2026, indicating strong cash generation.
Also watch forFree cash flow falls below $700 million in Q3 2026, raising concerns about cash management.
Why it matters: Improved sales trends would show the used vehicle market is recovering. This could increase earnings.
Supportive ifUsed vehicle sales grew over 10% compared to last year.
Worry ifUsed vehicle sales decline or remain flat year over year.
Why it matters: Ryder's performance is tied to the industrial sector. If sector growth improves, it could benefit Ryder.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth shows an increase back toward 8% year over year.
Worry ifSector revenue growth continues to decline below 4% year over year.
Why it matters: Hitting this growth target shows strong demand. It also shows good strategy execution.
Supportive ifTotal revenue growth reported above 3% for Q3.
Worry ifTotal revenue growth is at or below 3%. This shows weaker performance.
Why it matters: Revenue growth in SCS is key to overall revenue targets and reflects market demand.
Supportive ifSCS revenue growth exceeds 3% year over year in Q2 2026.
Worry ifSCS revenue growth falls below 2% year over year in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: More used vehicle sales show the market is recovering. This may increase earnings in Fleet Management Solutions.
Supportive ifUsed vehicle sales increase by more than 10% year over year in Q3.
Worry ifUsed vehicle sales decline or remain flat year over year in Q3.
Why it matters: Reaching this target shows management's plans work. It helps earnings grow.
Supportive ifManagement says they gained $70 million from their plans.
Worry ifBenefits are under $70 million. This shows poor strategy execution.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$111 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $331 loss on $10,000 · 3.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,752 loss on $10,000 · 17.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.