Rave Restaurant Group Inc (RAVE)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$3.04-0.33%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · RAVE
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -27.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 2.8% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 30.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate) and has been missing across recent quarters. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 30 industry peers
RAVE — legal / regulatory event — Changes in Registrant’s Certifying
Dated 2026-02-17
Changes in Registrant’s Certifying Accountants. (a) Effective February 10, 2026, Rave Restaurant Group, Inc. (the “ Company ”) dismissed Whitley Penn LLP (“ Whitley Penn ”) as the Company’s independent registered public accounting firm. The decision to change accountants was approved by the Audit Committee of the Company’s board of directors. The reports of Whitley Penn on the Company’s financial statements as of and for the fiscal years ended June 29, 2025, and June 30, 2024, did not contain…
Why it matters: Net income over $1 million shows good cost control and earnings growth.
Supportive ifNet income for Q3 exceeds $1 million.
Worry ifNet income for Q3 stays below $800,000.
Why it matters: More consumer spending would help revenue growth in a tough sector.
Watch forConsumer spending shows a positive trend after the July 14 CPI report.
Also watch forConsumer spending fell after the CPI report. This shows economic weakness.
Why it matters: Net income growth is key for investor confidence. It shows the company is improving.
Supportive ifNet income increases year over year by more than 5% in the next quarter.
Worry ifNet income decreases or grows less than 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Steady positive cash flow helps keep operations running and supports growth plans.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations remains positive in Q3.
Worry ifCash flow from operations turns negative in Q3.
Why it matters: Revenue growth above 15% would show strong demand and support management's focus on growth.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue growth exceeds 15% compared to the previous year.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth falls below 10% year over year.
Why it matters: Positive same store sales growth at Pizza Inn shows strong demand and brand strength.
Supportive ifPizza Inn same store sales growth exceeds 2.3% in Q4 2026.
Worry ifPizza Inn same store sales growth falls below 0% in Q4 2026.
Why it matters: Growing net income shows good performance and smart cost control.
Supportive ifNet income for Q4 exceeds $800,000, showing growth from Q3.
Worry ifNet income for Q4 is under $800,000. This may mean there are problems.
Why it matters: Opening new restaurants is key for growth and market share. It shows confidence in the brand.
Supportive ifAt least five new Pizza Inn locations open as planned within the next three quarters.
Worry ifFewer than three new Pizza Inn locations open in the next three quarters.
Why it matters: Pie Five's sales dropped 11.6% last quarter. A recovery signals brand strength.
Supportive ifPie Five comparable store sales increase year over year by more than 5%.
Worry ifPie Five comparable store sales decline year over year again.
Why it matters: Opening new locations shows growth potential. It can boost revenue and market share.
Supportive ifThe company opens at least five new restaurants in the next three quarters.
Worry ifNo new restaurant openings occur in the next three quarters.
Why it matters: Positive cash flow supports ongoing operations and growth plans. It's crucial for stability.
Supportive ifCash from operations will stay positive next quarter.
Worry ifCash from operations will turn negative next quarter.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$133 on $10,000 · ±1.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $453 loss on $10,000 · 4.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,599 loss on $10,000 · 36.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.