Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
RB Global (RBA)
NYSEIndustrialsSpecialty Business ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$95.09+2.07%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsSpecialty Business ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
4.68 → 4.84 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 6 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for RBA yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Successful integration of Big Iron Auction Company | A supporting condition in RB Global's published investment case. The stated target is Acquisition finalized and integrated by end of 2026. | Intact | Acquisition not finalized or integration issues materially hurt results | Acquisition finalized May 18, 2026 vs end-2026 target May 18, 2026 announcement confirms Big Iron acquisition finalized. Q2 earnings beat supports stable integration. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 9, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on growth through acquisitions and revenue increases. The current thesis is intact, but management's volatility and sector challenges introduce some uncertainty.
The valuation appears expensive compared to peers, with a slight expectations gap. The market seems to have priced in a justified level of performance, reflecting confidence in RBA's fundamentals despite the premium.
Fundamentals are likely to remain strong, as management has shown progress in revenue and growth targets. However, there is a moderate risk of missing expectations, especially given recent trends in the sector.
The thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like CTAS, CPRT, and ROL. If these companies continue to perform well, it could support RBA's growth, but any negative shifts could impact RBA's trajectory.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, RBA's performance will depend on its ability to navigate sector challenges while maintaining growth. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Maintain quarterly dividend at $0.31 per share |
| The company maintains a steady dividend of $0.31 per share. |
| Intact |
| Dividend per share falls below $0.31 quarterly |
Dividend per share: $0.31 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: $0.31 per share quarterly dividend. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 4, 20260.31 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Gross margin near 6-9% | Profit margins are expected to stay near 6-9%. | Intact | Gross margin falls below 6% in FY26 | Gross margin: 17.14% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 6-9% gross margin. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 4, 202617.136132 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Total revenue growth of at least 6% annually | A primary condition in RB Global's published investment case. The stated target is >=6% YoY. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below 6% next year | Revenue growth: 11.05% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=6% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 4, 202611.053963 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$4.89 → $4.84 · observed estimates
$5.14B → $5.34B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $4.89 | $5,144,307,750 | 12 / 10 |
| 2026-07-25 | $4.89 | $5,144,307,750 | 12 / 10 |
| 2026-07-26 | $4.89 | $5,144,307,750 | 12 / 10 |
| 2026-07-27 | $4.89 | $5,144,307,750 | 12 / 10 |
| 2026-07-28 | $4.89 | $5,144,307,750 | 12 / 10 |
| 2026-07-29 | $4.85 | $5,144,307,750 | 12 / 10 |
| 2026-07-30 | $4.85 | $5,144,307,750 | 12 / 10 |
| 2026-07-31 | $4.83 | $5,161,733,956 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-01 | $4.83 | $5,161,733,956 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-02 | $4.85 | $5,144,307,750 | 12 / 10 |
| 2026-08-03 | $4.83 | $5,161,733,956 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-04 | $4.78 | $5,135,205,822 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-05 | $4.78 | $5,135,205,822 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-06 | $4.85 | $5,144,307,750 | 12 / 10 |
| 2026-08-07 | $4.77 | $5,260,777,869 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-08 | $4.81 | $5,251,634,480 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-08-09 | $4.81 | $5,251,634,480 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-08-10 | $4.77 | $5,260,777,869 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-12 | $4.84 | $5,261,734,480 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-08-13 | $4.84 | $5,261,734,480 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-08-14 | $4.77 | $5,260,777,869 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-15 | $4.77 | $5,260,777,869 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-16 | $4.77 | $5,260,777,869 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-17 | $4.77 | $5,260,777,869 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-18 | $4.77 | $5,260,777,869 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-19 | $4.77 | $5,260,777,869 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-20 | $4.84 | $5,318,234,425 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-21 | $4.87 | $5,351,505,737 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-22 | $4.88 | $5,360,378,087 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-23 | $4.87 | $5,360,378,087 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-24 | $4.87 | $5,360,378,087 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-25 | $4.88 | $5,368,511,074 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-26 | $4.85 | $5,338,197,212 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-27 | $4.85 | $5,338,197,212 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-28 | $4.85 | $5,338,197,212 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-29 | $4.84 | $5,333,761,037 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-30 | $4.84 | $5,333,761,037 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-31 | $4.84 | $5,333,761,037 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-01 | $4.83 | $5,314,537,612 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-02 | $4.84 | $5,333,761,037 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-03 | $4.83 | $5,315,276,975 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-04 | $4.85 | $5,338,197,212 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-05 | $4.86 | $5,355,202,549 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-06 | $4.86 | $5,355,202,549 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-07 | $4.86 | $5,355,202,549 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-08 | $4.85 | $5,339,675,937 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-09 | $4.86 | $5,349,287,649 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-10 | $4.87 | $5,360,378,087 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-11 | $4.85 | $5,343,372,749 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-12 | $4.85 | $5,343,372,749 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-13 | $4.85 | $5,343,372,749 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-14 | $4.85 | $5,343,372,749 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-15 | $4.80 | $5,318,588,552 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-16 | $4.79 | $5,307,515,848 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-17 | $4.79 | $5,300,134,046 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-18 | $4.76 | $5,273,559,558 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-19 | $4.76 | $5,272,821,377 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-20 | $4.76 | $5,272,821,377 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-21 | $4.76 | $5,272,821,377 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-22 | $4.76 | $5,275,774,098 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-23 | $4.75 | $5,258,057,773 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-24 | $4.74 | $5,247,539,747 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-25 | $4.72 | $5,230,562,196 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-26 | $4.71 | $5,216,537,262 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-27 | $4.71 | $5,216,537,262 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-28 | $4.71 | $5,216,537,262 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-29 | $4.71 | $5,220,107,517 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-30 | $4.70 | $5,209,026,055 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-01 | $4.70 | $5,203,854,706 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-02 | $4.69 | $5,188,340,659 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-03 | $4.69 | $5,192,034,479 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-04 | $4.69 | $5,192,034,479 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-05 | $4.68 | $5,182,430,545 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-06 | $4.68 | $5,182,430,545 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-07 | $4.69 | $5,180,214,253 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-08 | $4.70 | $5,197,205,829 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-09 | $4.67 | $5,196,845,427 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-10 | $4.73 | $5,218,897,823 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-11 | $4.73 | $5,218,897,823 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-12 | $4.72 | $5,207,754,268 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-13 | $4.72 | $5,213,340,786 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-14 | $4.74 | $5,237,180,013 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-15 | $4.75 | $5,250,574,094 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-16 | $4.75 | $5,243,105,233 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-17 | $4.75 | $5,243,105,233 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-18 | $4.76 | $5,261,777,260 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-19 | $4.76 | $5,261,777,260 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-20 | $4.78 | $5,278,955,525 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-21 | $4.79 | $5,290,158,742 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-22 | $4.81 | $5,307,337,007 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-23 | $4.81 | $5,314,058,936 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-24 | $4.83 | $5,328,996,558 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-25 | $4.83 | $5,328,996,558 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-26 | $4.83 | $5,328,996,558 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-27 | $4.83 | $5,328,996,558 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-28 | $4.82 | $5,326,755,915 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-29 | $4.81 | $5,313,312,055 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-30 | $4.84 | $5,332,943,666 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-31 | $4.84 | $5,333,686,060 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-11-01 | $4.84 | $5,333,686,060 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-11-02 | $4.84 | $5,333,686,060 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-11-03 | $4.85 | $5,340,406,370 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-11-04 | $4.84 | $5,335,926,164 | 6 / 7 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 11 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.