Avita Medical, Inc. (RCEL)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$11.20+2.38%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · RCEL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 5.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 25.1% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 19.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 87 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
RCEL — debt issuance
Dated 2026-06-08
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. As disclosed in a Current Report on Form 8-K filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) on January 13, 2026, AVITA Medical, Inc. (the “Company”) previously entered into a Credit Agreement and Guaranty (the “Credit Agreement”) with Perceptive Credit Holdings V, LP as a lender and the administrative agent (“Perceptive”). The Credit Agreement provides for a five-year senior secured credit facility in an aggregate principal amount of…
Why it matters: Less cash use means better cash flow and more efficient operations.
Supportive ifNet cash use in Q2 drops below $5 million.
Worry ifNet cash use remains above $9 million in Q2.
Why it matters: High operating costs can hurt profits. It is important to keep them low.
Worry ifOperating costs were below $9M for Q2.
Less concerning ifOperating costs were above $9M for Q2.
Why it matters: A higher gross profit margin shows success in managing costs and making more money.
Supportive ifGross profit margin is over 81.7%. This shows good cost management.
Worry ifGross profit margin is under 81.7%. This signals possible cost control issues.
Why it matters: A clear plan from the new CEO can boost investor confidence and show direction. This is key after leadership changes.
Supportive ifLook for a plan that shows how to grow and manage costs.
Worry ifWatch for no clear plan announced in the next three months.
Why it matters: Strong RECELL revenue growth would confirm ongoing adoption and market confidence. It is key to the company's overall revenue growth story.
Supportive ifRECELL revenue growth exceeds 15% year over year in Q3 2026.
Worry ifRECELL revenue growth falls below 10% year over year in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Reaching cash flow breakeven is a big step for AVITA. It shows they are stable and running well.
Supportive ifAVITA reports cash flow breakeven in Q4 2026.
Worry ifCash flow remains negative in Q4 2026.
Why it matters: Continued revenue growth signals that the company is on track with its growth plans.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue growth exceeds $19.25M, showing continued progress.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth falls below $19.25M, indicating a slowdown.
Why it matters: Hitting this growth target shows the company is doing well in sales and has demand.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue growth of 20% or more year over year.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth falls below 18% year over year.
Why it matters: If expenses rise too fast, it could hurt profitability. This is crucial for managing costs.
Worry ifOperating expenses grow less than 5% while revenue grows more than 10%.
Less concerning ifOperating expenses grow more than 10% while revenue growth is less than 5%.
Why it matters: Managing expenses is important for financial health. High expenses can hurt profits.
Worry ifOperating expenses drop by over 5% from last quarter.
Less concerning ifOperating expenses rise by over 5% from last quarter.
Why it matters: Reaching cash flow breakeven shows that management controls costs. It also means operations are better.
Supportive ifQ4 cash flow breakeven confirmed in financial results.
Worry ifQ4 results show continued cash burn instead of breakeven.
Why it matters: Better margins would show good cost management and a smart product mix.
Supportive ifGross profit margin exceeds 82% in Q3 or Q4.
Worry ifGross profit margin falls below 81.5% in Q3 or Q4.
Why it matters: New rules could help doctors get paid and increase RECELL use, which may raise revenue.
Supportive ifCMS published final rules. These rules confirm national payment rates for RECELL.
Worry ifCMS final rules delay or do not set national payment rates for RECELL.
Why it matters: Earnings results will provide insight into financial health and growth trends.
Watch forEarnings were better than expected. This shows good financial performance.
Also watch forEarnings fell short of expectations. This may signal problems.
Why it matters: News about RECELL GO's regulatory status can boost growth and expand the market.
Supportive ifNew approvals for RECELL GO in more countries have been announced.
Worry ifThere are no new updates or delays in current approvals.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$245 on $10,000 · ±2.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $689 loss on $10,000 · 6.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,163 loss on $10,000 · 51.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.