Avita Medical, Inc. (RCEL)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$16.32+6.46%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · RCEL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 40.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 29.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 11.0 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 29 industry peers
RCEL — credit agreement
Dated 2026-11-02
Regulation FD Disclosure. On November 2, 2026, the Company lodged certain filings on the Australian Securities Exchange (the "ASX") disclosing the exercise by Perceptive Credit Holdings V, LP ("Perceptive") of the warrant certificate issued by the Company to Perceptive on June 5, 2026 (the “Warrant”). As previously disclosed, the Warrant was issued pursuant to that certain Credit Agreement and Guaranty, dated January 13, 2026, by and between Perceptive and the Company and was exercisable for…
Why it matters: The company used about $3.2 million of cash in Q2 and had $11.1 million in cash and marketable securities. Breakeven would ease pressure on its cash balance.
Supportive ifQ4 cash flow reaches breakeven or turns positive, as the company stated it expects.
Worry ifQ4 cash flow remains negative, or the company moves its breakeven target past Q4 2026.
Why it matters: The company has $11.1 million in cash and says another $10 million is available after it meets a revenue test. The test matters to its funding cushion.
Supportive ifThe company reports at least $85 million in trailing 12-month revenue before March 31, 2027, and confirms access to the $10 million tranche.
Worry ifThe company does not reach $85 million in trailing 12-month revenue by March 31, 2027, and the tranche is no longer available.
Why it matters: The study tests whether PermeaDerm can match allograft at a lower cost. Positive results could support wider use of this growing product.
Supportive ifThe study finds PermeaDerm works as well as allograft. It also supports PermeaDerm as a lower-cost option.
Worry ifThe study does not show that PermeaDerm works as well as allograft, or support it as a lower-cost option.
Why it matters: Q2 revenue reached $21.7 million, and the company raised its 2026 revenue range. Q3 results test whether sales keep pace.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue grows year over year and keeps the company on pace for $86 million to $89 million in 2026 revenue.
Worry ifQ3 revenue falls year over year, or the company cuts its 2026 revenue range below $86 million.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$243 on $10,000 · ±2.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $555 loss on $10,000 · 5.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,265 loss on $10,000 · 32.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.