Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
REDDIT, INC. (RDDT)
NYSECommunication ServicesInternet Content & InformationSnapshot 2026-11-05
$93.81-7.93%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSECommunication ServicesInternet Content & InformationSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
7.11 → 6.82 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 23 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 23 to 23; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for RDDT yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Achieve adjusted EBITDA of $285M to $295M in 2026-Q2 | Profit margins target $290 million adjusted EBITDA. | Broken | Adjusted EBITDA falls below $285M in 2026-Q2 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk growth business, with the multi-year view tied to turning a larger global community into sustained advertising revenue and profit. The thesis is intact, though recent signals weakened after the latest earnings miss.
RDDT trades at a premium to peers, while the evidence describes the expectations gap as negative, meaning expectations appear demanding relative to the model. Overall, pricing is tagged as justified, with low fragility rather than a broad combination of expensive valuation, weak execution, and market turbulence.
Near-term results show strong growth: revenue rose from $663 million in the first quarter to $895 million in the third, while third-quarter ad revenue was $847 million. Global daily and weekly active users grew, and operating income improved, though U.S. daily active users declined and the latest quarter missed; the earnings-quality assessment is neutral and risk is high.
Over the next few quarters, the main company-specific swing factor is whether guidance and execution stabilize after the miss. A guidance cut would add pressure, while continued advertising growth and user engagement would support the multi-year thesis; easier rates and strong results from large sector peers are possible sector tailwinds.
For the next 1 to 3 years, the case rests on continued ad monetization, global engagement growth, and profitability, balanced against high risk and uneven earnings delivery. The latest miss weakens near-term confidence but does not yet overturn the long-term thesis. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in REDDIT, INC.'s published investment case. The stated target is No major leadership departures or disruptions over next 4 quarters. |
| Intact |
| Significant leadership exits or instability reported |
No major leadership departures reported General Counsel retirement with named successor; no other major leadership disruptions or instability reported in recent news. Nov 5, 2026Last status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve revenue of $715M to $725M in 2026-Q2 | A primary condition in REDDIT, INC.'s published investment case. The stated target is $715M to $725M. | Intact | Revenue falls below $715M in 2026-Q2 | Revenue: $894.957M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: $715M to $725M. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Oct 30, 2026894,957,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Sustain growth to justify premium valuation | A supporting condition in REDDIT, INC.'s published investment case. The stated target is Revenue growth near 44% and improving margins to support valuation. | Improving | Revenue growth falls below 30% or margins decline materially | P/E (TTM): 16.37x As of 2026-11-05; trailing twelve months. The target timing and basis require a separate assessment. Nov 5, 202616.3717 ratio · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$6.53 → $6.82 · observed estimates
$4.27B → $4.35B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $6.53 | $4,268,162,950 | 28 / 32 |
| 2026-07-25 | $6.53 | $4,267,997,410 | 28 / 32 |
| 2026-07-26 | $6.53 | $4,267,997,410 | 28 / 32 |
| 2026-07-27 | $6.54 | $4,263,712,728 | 22 / 25 |
| 2026-07-28 | $6.53 | $4,268,009,910 | 28 / 32 |
| 2026-07-29 | $6.53 | $4,268,009,910 | 28 / 32 |
| 2026-07-30 | $6.57 | $4,264,826,640 | 23 / 25 |
| 2026-07-31 | $6.57 | $4,264,826,640 | 23 / 25 |
| 2026-08-01 | $6.57 | $4,264,826,640 | 23 / 25 |
| 2026-08-02 | $6.91 | $4,410,454,790 | 29 / 33 |
| 2026-08-03 | $6.91 | $4,410,454,790 | 29 / 33 |
| 2026-08-04 | $6.91 | $4,410,454,790 | 29 / 33 |
| 2026-08-05 | $6.95 | $4,402,948,201 | 23 / 26 |
| 2026-08-06 | $6.95 | $4,402,948,201 | 23 / 26 |
| 2026-08-08 | $6.94 | $4,418,457,820 | 29 / 33 |
| 2026-08-09 | $6.94 | $4,418,457,820 | 29 / 33 |
| 2026-08-10 | $6.94 | $4,418,457,820 | 29 / 33 |
| 2026-08-12 | $6.95 | $4,402,948,201 | 23 / 26 |
| 2026-08-13 | $6.98 | $4,429,690,870 | 28 / 32 |
| 2026-08-14 | $6.95 | $4,402,948,201 | 23 / 26 |
| 2026-08-15 | $6.95 | $4,402,948,201 | 23 / 26 |
| 2026-08-16 | $6.95 | $4,402,948,201 | 23 / 25 |
| 2026-08-17 | $6.95 | $4,402,948,201 | 23 / 25 |
| 2026-08-18 | $6.95 | $4,402,948,201 | 23 / 25 |
| 2026-08-19 | $6.95 | $4,402,948,201 | 23 / 25 |
| 2026-08-20 | $7.08 | $4,451,761,436 | 23 / 25 |
| 2026-08-21 | $7.08 | $4,451,761,436 | 23 / 25 |
| 2026-08-22 | $7.06 | $4,463,507,587 | 23 / 25 |
| 2026-08-23 | $7.06 | $4,463,507,587 | 23 / 25 |
| 2026-08-24 | $7.06 | $4,463,507,587 | 23 / 25 |
| 2026-08-25 | $7.06 | $4,463,508,152 | 23 / 25 |
| 2026-08-26 | $7.06 | $4,463,508,152 | 23 / 25 |
| 2026-08-27 | $7.06 | $4,463,508,152 | 23 / 25 |
| 2026-08-28 | $7.06 | $4,463,508,152 | 23 / 25 |
| 2026-08-29 | $7.06 | $4,463,508,152 | 23 / 25 |
| 2026-08-30 | $7.06 | $4,463,508,152 | 23 / 25 |
| 2026-08-31 | $7.06 | $4,463,508,152 | 23 / 25 |
| 2026-09-01 | $7.06 | $4,463,508,159 | 23 / 25 |
| 2026-09-02 | $7.06 | $4,463,508,159 | 23 / 25 |
| 2026-09-03 | $7.06 | $4,463,508,159 | 23 / 25 |
| 2026-09-04 | $7.06 | $4,463,508,159 | 23 / 26 |
| 2026-09-05 | $7.06 | $4,463,508,159 | 23 / 26 |
| 2026-09-06 | $7.06 | $4,463,508,159 | 23 / 26 |
| 2026-09-07 | $7.06 | $4,463,508,159 | 23 / 26 |
| 2026-09-08 | $7.06 | $4,463,500,697 | 23 / 26 |
| 2026-09-09 | $7.06 | $4,463,500,697 | 23 / 26 |
| 2026-09-10 | $7.06 | $4,463,500,697 | 23 / 26 |
| 2026-09-11 | $7.06 | $4,463,500,697 | 23 / 26 |
| 2026-09-12 | $7.06 | $4,463,500,697 | 23 / 26 |
| 2026-09-13 | $7.06 | $4,463,500,697 | 23 / 26 |
| 2026-09-14 | $7.06 | $4,463,500,697 | 23 / 26 |
| 2026-09-15 | $7.06 | $4,463,500,697 | 23 / 26 |
| 2026-09-16 | $7.06 | $4,463,500,697 | 23 / 26 |
| 2026-09-17 | $7.09 | $4,478,272,151 | 23 / 25 |
| 2026-09-18 | $7.09 | $4,478,268,579 | 23 / 25 |
| 2026-09-19 | $7.10 | $4,479,046,421 | 22 / 25 |
| 2026-09-20 | $7.10 | $4,479,046,421 | 23 / 25 |
| 2026-09-21 | $7.10 | $4,479,046,421 | 23 / 25 |
| 2026-09-22 | $7.10 | $4,479,046,421 | 23 / 25 |
| 2026-09-23 | $7.10 | $4,479,046,421 | 23 / 25 |
| 2026-09-24 | $7.10 | $4,479,046,421 | 23 / 25 |
| 2026-09-25 | $7.10 | $4,479,046,421 | 23 / 25 |
| 2026-09-26 | $7.10 | $4,479,046,421 | 23 / 25 |
| 2026-09-27 | $7.10 | $4,479,046,421 | 23 / 25 |
| 2026-09-28 | $7.10 | $4,479,046,421 | 23 / 25 |
| 2026-09-29 | $7.10 | $4,479,046,421 | 23 / 25 |
| 2026-09-30 | $7.11 | $4,479,046,421 | 23 / 25 |
| 2026-10-01 | $7.11 | $4,479,046,421 | 23 / 25 |
| 2026-10-02 | $7.11 | $4,479,046,421 | 23 / 25 |
| 2026-10-03 | $7.11 | $4,479,046,421 | 23 / 25 |
| 2026-10-04 | $7.11 | $4,479,046,421 | 23 / 25 |
| 2026-10-05 | $7.11 | $4,479,046,421 | 23 / 25 |
| 2026-10-06 | $7.11 | $4,479,046,421 | 23 / 25 |
| 2026-10-07 | $7.11 | $4,479,046,421 | 23 / 25 |
| 2026-10-08 | $7.11 | $4,479,046,421 | 23 / 25 |
| 2026-10-09 | $7.11 | $4,479,046,421 | 23 / 25 |
| 2026-10-10 | $7.13 | $4,487,432,628 | 23 / 25 |
| 2026-10-11 | $7.13 | $4,487,432,628 | 23 / 25 |
| 2026-10-12 | $7.13 | $4,487,432,628 | 23 / 25 |
| 2026-10-13 | $7.14 | $4,492,122,283 | 23 / 25 |
| 2026-10-14 | $7.14 | $4,492,122,283 | 23 / 25 |
| 2026-10-15 | $7.14 | $4,492,122,283 | 23 / 25 |
| 2026-10-16 | $7.14 | $4,492,122,283 | 23 / 25 |
| 2026-10-17 | $7.14 | $4,492,122,283 | 23 / 25 |
| 2026-10-18 | $7.14 | $4,492,122,283 | 23 / 25 |
| 2026-10-19 | $7.14 | $4,492,129,745 | 23 / 25 |
| 2026-10-20 | $7.13 | $4,492,121,532 | 23 / 25 |
| 2026-10-21 | $7.13 | $4,492,121,532 | 23 / 25 |
| 2026-10-22 | $7.13 | $4,492,121,532 | 23 / 25 |
| 2026-10-23 | $7.13 | $4,492,121,532 | 23 / 25 |
| 2026-10-24 | $7.13 | $4,492,121,532 | 23 / 25 |
| 2026-10-25 | $7.13 | $4,492,121,532 | 23 / 25 |
| 2026-10-26 | $7.13 | $4,492,121,532 | 23 / 25 |
| 2026-10-27 | $7.14 | $4,493,949,118 | 23 / 25 |
| 2026-10-28 | $7.14 | $4,493,952,566 | 23 / 25 |
| 2026-10-29 | $7.14 | $4,494,327,345 | 23 / 25 |
| 2026-10-30 | $7.14 | $4,494,327,345 | 23 / 25 |
| 2026-10-31 | $6.87 | $4,367,521,463 | 23 / 25 |
| 2026-11-01 | $6.86 | $4,367,520,926 | 23 / 25 |
| 2026-11-02 | $6.86 | $4,367,520,926 | 23 / 25 |
| 2026-11-03 | $6.82 | $4,353,093,561 | 23 / 25 |
| 2026-11-04 | $6.82 | $4,353,093,561 | 23 / 23 |
| 2026-11-05 | $6.82 | $4,353,093,561 | 23 / 23 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 18 Buy / Strong Buy · 16 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 15 recorded
0 raises · 3 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.