Reading RDN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track RDN free→Reading RDN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track RDN free→NYSEFinancialsInsurance - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral. Earnings quality is fragile, and management is volatile. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, RDN is above typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 29% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk. This is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $34.66. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $35 RDN trades at 8× p/e, below its 11× p/e peer median. Our $49 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Analysts: $39–$47. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 29% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 10%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=4936).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.60x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated fragile grew net income 49% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.26 → $1.37 (+8.6% / 30d). 4 raised, 0 cut, 4 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 67% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 26.3% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$103.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$218.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,434.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Maintaining the dividend shows financial health. A cut could worry investors.
Confirms:The company declares a dividend of $0.255 per share.
Disproves:The company announces a reduction in the dividend per share.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for RDN yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Chief Executive Officer — Michael Weinbach: Richard G. Thornberry is retiring as CEO and Michael Weinbach is being appointed as the new CEO.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$39.00 – $47.00 (median $40.00) · 3 analysts · as of 2026-05-22
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Property & Casualty Insurance.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
RDN Radian Group, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 87 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
CB Chubb Limited | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 69 of 100 | full | moderate |
PGR Progressive Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 76 of 100 | fair | moderate |
TRV Travelers Companies (The) | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 87 of 100 | fair | low |
ALL Allstate | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 86 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
3 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Financials names rated volatile grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3774).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Continue to provide a stable dividend per share of $0.255.
Focus on enhancing cash flow from operating activities.
Ensure net income remains stable across reporting periods.
Why it matters: Earnings will show how well Radian is managing in a slowing growth environment.
Confirms one read:Q2 earnings report shows revenue growth above 12% year over year.
Confirms the other:Q2 earnings report shows revenue growth below 10% year over year.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is a key driver for the sector. A drop could signal a slowdown.
Confirms:Revenue growth remains above the median of 13% year over year.
Disproves:Revenue growth drops below the median of 13% year over year.
Why it matters: Increasing cash flow is vital for growth. A decrease could signal trouble.
Confirms:Cash from operations is up from last quarter.
Disproves:Cash from operations is down from last quarter.
Why it matters: Eric Ray will retire on July 1, 2026. This may affect Radian's digital strategy.
Confirms one read:A new Chief Digital Officer was announced. They have a strong digital strategy.
Confirms the other:There was no news about a successor or unclear plans for digital projects.
Why it matters: Stable net income is a priority. A decline could signal deeper issues.
Confirms:Q2 net income remains stable or improves compared to Q1.
Disproves:Q2 net income declines year over year.
of, or furnished with, this report shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (the “Exchange Act”), nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933 or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.
Senior Executive Vice President, Chief Digital Officer — Eric R. Ray: Eric R. Ray is retiring from his role and the company.
The filing describes compensatory arrangements and equity compensation plan approvals, not a management change.