Rent the Runway Inc (RENT)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - RetailSnapshot 2026-11-04
$2.46+9.33%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - RetailSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · RENT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -25.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 0.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 25.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 3 industry peers
RENT — capital allocation — Unregistered Sales of Equity Securities
Dated 2026-10-26
Unregistered Sales of Equity Securities. The information set forth in
Why it matters: The company raised its FY26 rental product range from $45 million to $50 million, to $53 million to $55 million. A higher total could pressure cash and margins.
Worry ifFY26 rental product acquired is above $55 million.
Less concerning ifFY26 rental product acquired is $55 million or less, within the revised range.
Why it matters: Add-on bookings grew 81% in Q2, and more subscribers used add-ons. Continued growth would show customers are using more of the core service.
Supportive ifQ3 add-on bookings grow year over year, and the share of subscribers using an add-on stays above 33%.
Worry ifQ3 add-on bookings fall year over year, or the share of subscribers using an add-on drops below 33%.
Why it matters: Management guided to $87 million to $90 million. A result below that range would miss the low end after Q2 growth slowed to 20.8%.
Worry ifQ3 FY26 revenue is below $87 million, or full-year revenue guidance no longer calls for double-digit growth.
Less concerning ifQ3 FY26 revenue is at least $87 million and full-year double-digit growth guidance stays in place.
Why it matters: Outfit generation is live for all customers, and early users added items to bags more often. Later results can show if that early lift lasts.
Supportive ifA later company update says outfit-tool use is above 35%. Or users add at least 12% more items than non-users.
Worry ifA later company update reports outfit-tool use below 35%, or no lift in item adds for users.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$324 on $10,000 · ±3.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $830 loss on $10,000 · 8.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $8,349 loss on $10,000 · 83.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The company had $29 million in cash at Q2 end and launched a $15 million rights offering. Q3 results can show whether cash and subscriber counts are holding up.
Watch forQ3 ending cash is above $29 million and ending active subscribers are at least 140,826.
Also watch forQ3 ending cash is below $29 million or ending active subscribers fall below 140,826.