Reynolds Consumer Products (REYN)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesHousehold & Personal ProductsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$21.85+0.09%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer StaplesHousehold & Personal ProductsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · REYN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -5.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 1.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 7.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 18 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
REYN — earnings in line
Dated 2026-02-04
of this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section and shall not be deemed incorporated by reference into any other filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as otherwise expressly stated in such filing.
Why it matters: Growth above 10% would show strong efficiency and good cost control. This boosts investor confidence.
Supportive ifOperating income grew more than 10% compared to Q2 2025.
Worry ifOperating income growth is below 10% compared to Q2 2025.
Why it matters: If this target is met or exceeded, it supports management's earnings outlook for the quarter.
Supportive ifQ3 2026 net income reported at or above $83 million.
Worry ifIf Q3 2026 net income is below $79 million, it shows weaker performance.
Why it matters: Hitting this target shows good cost management and efficiency. It shows the company can handle costs.
Supportive ifIn Q3 2026, adjusted EBITDA is at least $160 million.
Worry ifIn Q3 2026, adjusted EBITDA is less than $160 million. This shows issues with operations.
Why it matters: Stable or rising retail volumes show strength and good management.
Supportive ifRetail volumes go up year over year in Q3 2026, showing recovery.
Worry ifRetail volumes continue to decline year over year in Q3 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$100 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $269 loss on $10,000 · 2.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,968 loss on $10,000 · 19.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows that the company cares about giving money back to shareholders. This is true even in tough market conditions.
Supportive ifDividend payment of $0.23 per share is made on August 31, 2026.
Worry ifIf the dividend payment is skipped or reduced, it shows financial strain.
Why it matters: Changes in consumer prices can affect Reynolds' pricing and cost control.
Watch forCPI data shows a year-over-year rise above 3%. This indicates inflation.
Also watch forCPI data shows a year-over-year drop. This suggests deflation.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows strong cash flow and care for shareholders.
Supportive ifThe company plans to pay a quarterly dividend of $0.23 per share.
Worry ifThe company cuts or stops the quarterly dividend payment.
Why it matters: Sector growth impacts Reynolds' performance. Slowing growth may hurt sales.
Worry ifConsumer Staples sector revenue growth speeds up above 5%.
Less concerning ifConsumer Staples sector revenue growth stays below 3%.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is a key priority. Strong growth signals improved market position.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue growth exceeds 5% year over year.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth falls below 2% year over year.
Why it matters: A drop worse than -2% would signal challenges in maintaining revenue growth. This could affect investor confidence.
Worry ifQ2 2026 net revenues decline worse than -2% compared to Q2 2025.
Less concerning ifQ2 2026 net revenues increase or decline less than -2% compared to Q2 2025.
Why it matters: Earnings per share below $0.39 would show weaker profits than expected. This could affect market feelings.
Worry ifQ2 2026 EPS reported below $0.39.
Less concerning ifQ2 2026 EPS reported at or above $0.39.
Why it matters: Flat or falling revenues show problems in keeping growth in a tough market.
Worry ifQ3 2026 net revenues are about $931 million or less than Q3 2025.
Less concerning ifIn Q3 2026, net revenues are over $931 million. This shows better performance.