Rafael Holdings Inc (RFL)
NYSEReal EstateReal Estate - ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$1.07-0.93%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReal Estate - ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · RFL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
A comparable price-assumption read is not available for this company.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Model as of —
Why it matters: FDA filing acceptance and review terms are key steps after the NDA submission. The Phase 3 study missed its main goal in the full group.
Watch forFDA accepts the NDA for review and grants priority review, or sets a clear review date.
Also watch forFDA refuses to file the NDA, asks for major new data, or issues a complete response letter.
Why it matters: Rafael said it continued its U.S. commercial build-out. Higher sales would show whether that effort is gaining traction.
Supportive ifA company update reports new U.S. distributors and a rise in medical device revenue above $244,000 per quarter.
Worry ifA later report shows medical device revenue of $244,000 or less per quarter. No new distributors are reported.
Why it matters: Cash was $22.1 million at July 31, while fiscal 2026 R&D spending was $24.3 million. More funding may be needed to keep work going.
Worry ifA later report shows cash below $24.3 million, with no new financing or cash inflow disclosed.
Less concerning ifCash rises above $24.3 million, or the company reports enough funds to cover planned research costs.
Why it matters: The prespecified group on background therapy had a positive result. FDA acceptance of that result may shape the review.
Watch forFDA materials or company updates say the subgroup result supports review. No new trial is requested.
Also watch forFDA says the subgroup result cannot support the application. Or it asks for another controlled trial.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$308 on $10,000 · ±3.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $755 loss on $10,000 · 7.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $7,354 loss on $10,000 · 73.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.