Rafael Holdings Inc (RFL)
NYSEReal EstateReal Estate - ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$2.56+3.64%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReal Estate - ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · RFL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
A comparable price-assumption read is not available for this company.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Model as of —
RFL — director transition
Dated 2025-10-28
Director — Alan Grayson: Election of Alan Grayson as a director to fill the vacancy created by Stephen Greenberg's passing.
Why it matters: Better earnings would show a turnaround for Rafael Holdings. It is currently losing money.
Supportive ifQ2 earnings show a smaller loss than the previous quarter, indicating progress.
Worry ifQ2 earnings report shows a larger loss than the previous quarter, confirming ongoing issues.
Why it matters: Updates on the pediatric sub-study could show how well Trappsol Cyclo works for kids. This may affect future market chances.
Watch forNew data shows many pediatric patients are getting better or staying stable.
Also watch forNew data shows few pediatric patients are improving or have bad side effects.
Why it matters: Topline data will show how well Trappsol Cyclo works for Niemann-Pick Disease. Good results could make investors more confident.
Watch forTopline results from the Phase 3 trial show patients are doing better.
Also watch forTopline results show no real change in patient outcomes.
Why it matters: Top results will show how well Trappsol Cyclo works for Niemann-Pick Disease. Good results may boost investor confidence.
Supportive ifTopline data from the Phase 3 trial shows significant improvement in CGI scores.
Worry ifTop data shows no real change in CGI scores.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$296 on $10,000 · ±3.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $654 loss on $10,000 · 6.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,212 loss on $10,000 · 52.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: If revenue growth in the real estate sector picks up, it could benefit Rafael Holdings.
Supportive ifReal estate sector revenue growth is speeding up again. It is now above 4%.
Worry ifSector revenue growth is slowing down. It remains below 4%.
Why it matters: Topline results will show how well Trappsol Cyclo works for Niemann-Pick Disease. This is important for future sales.
Supportive ifTopline data from the Phase 3 TransportNPC trial shows positive outcomes for Trappsol Cyclo.
Worry ifTopline data shows that Trappsol Cyclo does not help much in treating Niemann-Pick Disease.
Why it matters: More money spent on R&D might affect financial stability. It is important for management to control costs.
Worry ifR&D expenses remain stable or decrease from the current $4.9 million.
Less concerning ifR&D costs rise a lot more than they are now.
Why it matters: FDA feedback will show if Trappsol Cyclo can get approved and when.
Supportive ifThe FDA provides positive feedback on the NDA submission for Trappsol Cyclo.
Worry ifThe FDA has big worries about the NDA submission.
Why it matters: The NDA submission is a key step for Trappsol Cyclo. It could lead to market entry for a treatment with high unmet need.
Supportive ifThe company submits the NDA for Trappsol Cyclo to the FDA in the second half of 2026.
Worry ifThe NDA submission is delayed beyond 2026.