Rafael Holdings Inc (RFL)
NYSEReal EstateReal Estate - ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$2.56+3.64%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReal Estate - ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
Broken: Primary pillar broken — move towards positive EPS: EPS -0.08 vs 0 target.
Rafael Holdings owns commercial real estate and pharma assets. Despite a 50% revenue drop in Q3 FY2026, a partnership with India could boost growth. The company’s market cap is $143.5M, offering value if turnaround succeeds.
The company is loss-making with negative free cash flow yield of -26%. Revenue fell 50% year-over-year in Q3 FY2026. The sector faces headwinds and the stock dropped 14.5% in one day, showing weak fundamentals.
The market is selling off sharply, reflecting concerns about the 50% revenue decline and ongoing losses. No clear consensus or guidance exists, so the price likely discounts a difficult turnaround.
Breaks if: no partnership agreement signed within 12 months
Breaks if: EPS remains negative through FY27
Breaks if: YoY revenue growth remains below -10% in FY27
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a speculative growth opportunity, focusing on the biotech sector. The current thesis state indicates a cautious approach as the company is loss-making and facing sector headwinds.
The market appears to be pricing in significant challenges, given the company's weak recent financial performance and loss-making status. There is an expectation that any positive developments in the broader Real Estate sector could provide some support.
Management has stable priorities, including advancing Trappsol Cyclo for the NPC market and expanding its intellectual property portfolio. However, recent financial performance has been weak, which may continue to pose challenges in the near term.
The long-term thesis hinges on favorable scenarios, such as potential interest rate cuts by the Fed and positive earnings from sector bellwethers like CBRE and JLL. Conversely, any negative earnings guidance from these companies could adversely affect RFL.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Signal changed from 'cautious' to 'restrictive'.
Our read on the company is unchanged since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, RFL's performance will depend heavily on external market conditions and the execution of its management priorities. Not investment advice.