Reading RGEN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track RGEN free→Reading RGEN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track RGEN free→NASDAQHealth CareMedical Instruments & SuppliesSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. However, risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may impact future growth. Peer multiples imply a price about 306% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich. Key factors to watch include whether RGEN cuts guidance after a recent raise, which could harm credibility, and the performance of sector bellwethers that may influence Healthcare sector momentum. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $130.59. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $131, RGEN's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 73× p/e (4.4× the 16× p/e peer median, and 1.0× even its own history). At a normal multiple the price implies ~306% near-term growth vs our ~6% forecast. That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $32 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Analysts: $142–$160. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 306% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 6%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Flags: expensive valuation, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated strong grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=2344).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.54x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Health Care names rated robust grew net income 60% of the time over the next year (vs 48% for the rest of the cohort, n=1703).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.47 → $0.45 (-3.0% / 30d). 2 raised, 10 cut, 17 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 82% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 54.8% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$179.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$464.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,028.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Meeting this growth target shows Repligen is on track for its FY26 goals. It signals strong demand and operational effectiveness.
Confirms:Q2 organic revenue growth reported at 9% or higher.
Disproves:Q2 organic revenue growth was less than 9%.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for RGEN yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 5, 2026, Repligen Corporation announced its financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. The full text of the press release issued in connection with the announcement is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information in this Form 8-K and the exhibit attached hereto shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$142.00 – $160.00 (median $145.00) · 5 analysts · as of 2026-05-14
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Biotechnology.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
RGEN Repligen | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 83 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
ABBV AbbVie | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 79 of 100 | full | low |
AMGN Amgen | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 75 of 100 | full | moderate |
GILD Gilead Sciences | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 96 of 100 | fair | moderate |
VRTX Vertex Pharmaceuticals | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 82 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
Not enough signal yet.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Repligen aims to achieve 9%-13% organic revenue growth for the fiscal year 2026.
Repligen plans to increase adjusted EPS to a range of $1.97-$2.05 for fiscal year 2026.
Repligen aims to maintain an operating margin between 15.1% and 15.5% for fiscal year 2026.
Why it matters: This report will provide key insights into revenue, EPS, and margins. It will shape investor expectations.
Confirms one read:Earnings report shows revenue and EPS growth meeting or exceeding guidance.
Confirms the other:Earnings report shows revenue and EPS falling short of guidance.
Why it matters: Meeting this EPS target shows good profits and efficiency. It helps build investor trust.
Confirms:Adjusted EPS reported at $2.05 or higher.
Disproves:Adjusted EPS was less than $1.97.
Why it matters: A lower margin could mean higher costs or problems. This may hurt overall profits.
Confirms:Operating margin was 15.1% or more.
Disproves:Operating margin was less than 15.1%.
Why it matters: If revenue growth drops, it could signal a slowdown in the sector and hurt Repligen's outlook.
Confirms:Revenue growth falls below the median growth rate for the sector.
Disproves:Revenue growth is still above average. This shows continued strength.