Reading RGLD? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track RGLD free→Reading RGLD? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track RGLD free→NASDAQMaterialsGoldSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality is neutral and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Risk is moderate, and compared with sector peers, RGLD is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 23% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair. If RGLD cuts guidance on the next call, that could be a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $207.57. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $208 RGLD trades at 25× p/e, in line with its 20× p/e peer median. Our $168 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 23% near-term growth, below our forecast of about 49%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Crisis) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 3 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Materials names rated strong grew net income 63% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=1093).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.36x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Materials names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=1297).
Most sensitive to the US dollar and the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $2.94 → $2.72 (-7.3% / 30d). 0 raised, 2 cut, 7 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 75% of analysts rate Buy.
Divergence: fundamentals are strong but estimates are being cut. Worth reading the recent material events.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$188.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$450.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,512.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Strong revenue growth would show that recent acquisitions and market conditions are working.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth exceeds 100% year over year from $193.4 million in Q2 2025.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth is less than 100% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for RGLD yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On May 6, 2026, Royal Gold, Inc. reported its results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information furnished under this Item 2.02, including the exhibit, will not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, and will not be deemed incorporated by reference into any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, ex…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Gold.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
RGLD Royal Gold | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 55 of 100 | full | moderate |
NEM Newmont | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 94 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
CDE Coeur Mining, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 35 of 100 | fair | high |
AGI Alamos Gold Inc | — | — | elevated |
HMY HARMONY GOLD MINING CO LTD | — | — | high |
Not enough signal yet.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLB
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Focus on increasing revenue through portfolio expansion and strong metal prices.
Add capital allocation tools like the accordion feature and share repurchase program for flexibility.
Commitment to increasing the dividend per share as part of capital allocation strategy.
Royal Gold is focused on increasing its operating income to improve profitability.
Why it matters: Continued revenue growth supports the company's growth strategy. It can enhance market perception.
Confirms:Revenue increases above $469.1M in the next quarter.
Disproves:Revenue falls below $469.1M in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Steady growth in operating income means the company is making more money. This can bring in more investors.
Confirms:Operating income will rise above $297.1M in the next quarter.
Disproves:Operating income falls below $297.1M in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Completing this payment would confirm progress in the project and strengthen future cash flows.
Confirms:Payment of the remaining $50 million to Solaris after conditions are met by May 21, 2026.
Disproves:Failure to make the $50 million payment by the due date.
Why it matters: If sector growth improves, it can positively impact Royal Gold's performance. It signals a healthier market.
Confirms one read:Sector revenue growth exceeds 1% in the next quarter.
Confirms the other:Sector revenue growth remains below 1% in the next quarter.
Why it matters: A dividend increase shows a promise to give cash back to shareholders. This can help build trust with investors.
Confirms:The company raises the dividend per share above $0.475 in the next quarter.
Disproves:The company maintains the dividend at $0.475 or lowers it.