Regis Corp (RGS)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryPersonal Products & ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-05
$24.01-24.43%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryPersonal Products & ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · RGS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -46.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 1.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 48.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 3 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
RGS — earnings miss
Dated 2026-11-05
is attached as Exhibit No. 99.1 and incorporated by reference herein. The information in this Form 8-K shall not be deemed "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933 or the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, regardless of any general incorporation language in such filing.
Why it matters: Debt totaled $127.1 million at the last reported balance date. A deal with better terms could lower debt costs.
Supportive ifRegis announces a signed refinancing with lower debt costs than its current deal.
Worry ifRegis reports no signed deal, or says the new terms do not meaningfully improve on its current agreement.
Why it matters: Fiscal 2026 Q4 sales were nearly flat. Growth would show that traffic and repeat visits are gaining ground.
Supportive ifIn the Nov. 11 report, consolidated same-store sales rise above 0.1% year over year.
Worry ifTotal same-store sales fall below 0.1% from a year earlier.
Why it matters: Regis posted 0.9% full-year same-store sales growth, while the sector read points to shrinking revenue. Further sales declines would weaken the growth case.
Worry ifTotal same-store sales are below 0% from a year earlier for two quarters in a row.
Less concerning ifTotal same-store sales stay at or above 0% from a year earlier for two quarters in a row.
Why it matters: Fewer franchise salons have cut royalties and fees. Another drop would add to pressure on the franchise business.
Worry ifQ1 franchise royalties are below $13.7 million, the fiscal 2026 Q4 level.
Less concerning ifQ1 franchise royalties reach or exceed $13.7 million.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$113 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $401 loss on $10,000 · 4.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,484 loss on $10,000 · 34.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.