Regis Corp (RGS)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryPersonal Products & ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$28.50-1.04%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryPersonal Products & ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · RGS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -10.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 0.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 11.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 7 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
RGS — officer change
Dated 2026-04-15
Director — William “Bill” Charters: Mr. Charters was appointed to the Board of Directors.
Why it matters: Net income growth shows better financial health. It shows management is doing well.
Supportive ifQ2 2026 net income exceeds $0.7 million.
Worry ifQ2 2026 net income falls below $0.7 million.
Why it matters: Operating income shows how much money a company makes. A drop may mean problems.
Worry ifOperating income for Q3 falls below $5.7 million.
Less concerning ifOperating income for Q3 stays at or above $5.7 million.
Why it matters: If revenue grows in the consumer sector, it could mean recovery. This would help Regis Corp.
Watch forIf sector revenue growth is positive, it shows recovery.
Also watch forIf sector revenue growth is negative, it shows ongoing decline.
Why it matters: If EPS improves, it shows the company is making more money. This could help investors.
Supportive ifDiluted EPS rises above $0.26 in Q3.
Worry ifIf diluted EPS is below $0.26, it shows no growth.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$112 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $396 loss on $10,000 · 4.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,677 loss on $10,000 · 36.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Cash flow is vital for operations and debt management. A decline would raise concerns.
Worry ifCash flow from operations drops below $4.97 million in Q3.
Less concerning ifCash flow from operations remains at or above $4.97 million.
Why it matters: Strong cash flow helps keep operations running. It shows the company is stable.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations exceeds $5 million in Q2 2026.
Worry ifCash flow from operations falls below $5 million in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Continued revenue decline would show that growth is not sustainable. This could hurt investor confidence.
Worry ifQ3 revenue falls below $52.4M, indicating ongoing decline.
Less concerning ifIf Q3 revenue is $52.4M or more, it shows recovery.
Why it matters: Improved franchise revenue is key to overall financial health and growth.
Supportive ifFranchise revenue growth above 5% in Q4.
Worry ifFranchise revenue continues to decline year over year.
Why it matters: A drop below 3.0% would signal weakening demand and could impact overall revenue growth.
Worry ifSupercuts same-store sales growth was below 3.0% last quarter.
Less concerning ifSupercuts same-store sales growth remains at or above 3.0%.
Why it matters: A good refinancing could lower interest costs. This would help cash flow and growth.
Supportive ifA formal announcement of a refinancing deal. The new terms are better than the current debt.
Worry ifThere is no refinancing announcement. High debt service costs keep going.
Why it matters: A decline in cash flow could indicate operational issues and affect growth plans.
Worry ifCash flow from operations reported below $13 million in the next quarter.
Less concerning ifCash flow from operations remains at or above $13 million.