RCI Hospitality Holdings, Inc. (RICK)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$30.14+5.02%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · RICK
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -20.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 2.5% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 22.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name has erratic recent earnings surprises and is on a run of consecutive earnings misses. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 11 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
RICK — President transition
Dated 2026-09-03
CEO — Travis Reese: The filing formalizes the employment agreement for the Interim CEO, confirming his continued leadership rather than a departure.
Why it matters: Operating cash flow was $11.3 million in Q3, but nine-month cash flow fell from $35.7 million to $29.0 million year over year. A higher quarter would show stronger cash generation.
Supportive ifQuarterly cash from operations tops $11.3 million in the next results report.
Worry ifQuarterly cash from operations is $11.3 million or less in the next results report.
Why it matters: Addressing Nasdaq listing issues remains a stated priority. A clear filing would resolve this open risk.
Supportive ifA company filing or Nasdaq notice states that RICK has regained compliance.
Worry ifA filing or Nasdaq notice reports that non-compliance continues or adds a new listing issue.
Why it matters: Nightclubs same-store sales fell 2.7% in Q4. A steeper drop would show the September improvement did not last.
Worry ifNightclubs same-store sales fall more than 2.7% year over year in the next reported quarter.
Less concerning ifNightclubs same-store sales are flat or grow year over year in the next reported quarter.
Why it matters: Bombshells same-store sales rose 12.1% in Q4 after a 4.7% gain in Q3. More growth would show the mid-year changes are working.
Supportive ifBombshells same-store sales grow year over year in the next reported quarter.
Worry ifBombshells same-store sales fall year over year in the next reported quarter.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$134 on $10,000 · ±1.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $397 loss on $10,000 · 4.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,641 loss on $10,000 · 26.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Bombshells full-year same-store sales fell 4.8%, despite gains in the second half. A positive result would show the rebound lasted.
Supportive ifBombshells full-year same-store sales are above zero in the next annual report.
Worry ifBombshells' full-year same-store sales stay below zero in the next annual report.