RCI Hospitality Holdings, Inc. (RICK)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$29.35+2.12%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · RICK
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -14.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 2.5% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 16.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name has erratic recent earnings surprises and is on a run of consecutive earnings misses. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 30 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
RICK — President transition
Dated 2026-09-03
CEO — Travis Reese: The filing formalizes the employment agreement for the Interim CEO, confirming his continued leadership rather than a departure.
Why it matters: Exceeding $75M in revenues shows strong growth and market demand.
Supportive ifTotal revenues for Q3 exceed $75M.
Worry ifTotal revenues for Q3 fall below $73.9M.
Why it matters: Strong adjusted EBITDA growth shows better operations. It also means more profit.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA growth exceeds 10% YoY in the next quarter.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA growth is below 10% YoY.
Why it matters: Higher cash flow supports growth and reduces debt. It shows financial health.
Supportive ifNet cash from operations increases above $11M for Q4.
Worry ifNet cash from operations drops below $9M for Q4.
Why it matters: New legal issues could impact operations and financial results. This adds risk.
Worry ifNo new legal or regulatory issues are reported for the next quarter.
Less concerning ifNew legal or regulatory problems arise. This adds to the current issues.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$141 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $423 loss on $10,000 · 4.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,191 loss on $10,000 · 41.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Reducing debt shows better financial health. It shows management cares about how they spend money.
Supportive ifDebt decreases by more than 3.5% in the next quarter.
Worry ifDebt remains flat or increases in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Higher net income shows the company is managing costs well and growing. This can help investor confidence.
Supportive ifNet income for common stockholders rises above $6.4 million next quarter.
Worry ifNet income falls below $6.4 million in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Fixing compliance issues is key. It helps keep the company's Nasdaq listing and investor trust.
Supportive ifRCI Hospitality files all SEC reports on time. This helps fix compliance issues.
Worry ifNasdaq sent more warnings about not following listing rules.
Why it matters: Growing revenue shows recovery. This can make investors feel more positive.
Supportive ifRevenue for the next quarter shows growth compared to the previous quarter.
Worry ifRevenue keeps falling compared to last quarter.
Why it matters: Updates on compliance with Nasdaq listing rules are crucial. Non-compliance could affect investor sentiment and stock price.
Worry ifManagement says they have fixed Nasdaq compliance issues.
Less concerning ifMore Nasdaq notices for non-compliance are sent out.
Why it matters: Higher free cash flow shows better cash management and efficiency. This can help growth plans.
Supportive ifFree cash flow increases above $10 million in the next quarter.
Worry ifFree cash flow falls below $10 million in the next quarter.
Why it matters: If same-store sales stay steady, it shows recovery from past spending problems.
Supportive ifNightclubs' same-store sales growth stays at or above -0.8% year over year.
Worry ifSame-store sales decline further below -0.8% year over year.
Why it matters: Compliance is crucial for maintaining the stock's listing. Non-compliance could lead to delisting.
Worry ifRCI submits all required filings to Nasdaq on time.
Less concerning ifRCI got another notice from Nasdaq. It says they are not in compliance.
Why it matters: Strong growth in Bombshells would help improve overall revenue and profits.
Supportive ifBombshells revenue growth exceeds 25% year over year.
Worry ifBombshells revenue growth drops below 20% year over year.
Why it matters: Stabilizing sales growth at Bombshells would show strong demand and effective management. This could support overall revenue growth.
Supportive ifBombshells same-store sales growth stays above 4.0% for two quarters in a row.
Worry ifSame-store sales growth falls below 4.0% for two quarters in a row.
Why it matters: A decline in cash flow from operations could signal deeper financial issues and affect growth plans.
Worry ifNet cash from operations is less than $9.9 million.
Less concerning ifNet cash from operating activities stays at or above $9.9 million.