Reading RITM? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track RITM free→Reading RITM? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track RITM free→NYSEFinancialsReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and risk is moderate. Peer multiples imply a price about 38% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples while recent financials are weak. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 4 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $9.31. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $9.31 RITM trades at 4× p/e, below its 9× p/e peer median. Our $15 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Analysts: $12–$14. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 37% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 6%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 0 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated weak grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=3730).
Over the trailing year it converted -4.42x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated fragile grew net income 49% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.52 → $0.51 (-1.7% / 30d). 1 raised, 5 cut, 9 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
1 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$88.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$232.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,733.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Strong revenue growth supports the company's goal and investor confidence. Weak growth may raise concerns.
Confirms:Revenue growth rate reported in Q2 exceeds 10% year over year.
Disproves:Revenue growth rate reported in Q2 falls below 5% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for RITM yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On May 14, 2026, Rithm Capital Corp. (the “Company”) closed its previously announced private offering of $500 million aggregate principal amount of 8.500% senior unsecured notes due 2031 (the “2031 Senior Notes”). The 2031 Senior Notes were issued pursuant to an indenture, dated as of May 14, 2026 (the “Indenture”), between the Company and U.S. Bank Trust Company, National Association, as trustee. The Company is filing the Indenture and the form of…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$12.50 – $14.50 (median $12.50) · 3 analysts · as of 2026-05-01
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Mortgage REITs.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
RITM Rithm Capital | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 54 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
NLY Annaly Capital Management | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 36 of 100 | full | moderate |
AGNC AGNC Investment Corp | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 28 of 100 | full | moderate |
STWD Starwood Property Trust | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 28 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
BXMT Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 14 of 100 | fair | moderate |
4 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Financials names rated volatile grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3774).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Continue to maintain the dividend per share at $0.25 as a capital allocation priority.
Focus on increasing revenue growth through strategic investments and acquisitions.
Focus on enhancing operating income through improved operational efficiency.
Why it matters: Maintaining the dividend shows financial health and commitment to shareholders. A cut could signal trouble.
Confirms:The company confirms the dividend remains at $0.25 per share in the next earnings report.
Disproves:The company cuts the dividend per share to below $0.25.
Why it matters: Better operating income shows good cost management and profit. Declines could be a warning.
Confirms:Operating income goes up year over year in Q2 results.
Disproves:Operating income goes down year over year in Q2 results.
Why it matters: Growth in operating income backs the management's plan. It also boosts investor trust.
Confirms:Operating income growth is more than the last quarter's rise of 65%.
Disproves:Operating income growth falls below the previous quarter's increase of 65%.
Why it matters: A successful buyback can boost stock price and show confidence in the company's value. Failure to lift price may signal weakness.
Confirms:Stock price goes up a lot after the buyback program is announced.
Disproves:Stock price remains flat or declines despite the buyback announcement.
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information included in
Other Events. On May 12, 2026, Rithm Capital Corp. (“Rithm” or the “Company”) issued a press release announcing the pricing of a private offering of $500 million aggregate principal amount of 8.500% senior unsecured notes due 2031 (the “2031 Senior Notes,” and such offering, the “Senior Notes Offering”). The Senior Notes Offering is expected to close on May 14, 2026, subject to customary closing conditions. A copy of the Company’s press release with respect to the Senior Notes Offering is fil…
Other Events. On May 11, 2026, Rithm Capital Corp. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its intention to commence a private offering of $500 million aggregate principal amount of senior unsecured notes due 2031 (the “2031 Senior Notes,” and such offering, the “Senior Notes Offering”). A copy of the Company’s press release with respect to the Senior Notes Offering is filed as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K, and is incorporated herein by reference. The Company inte…
of this Current Report and shall not be deemed to be filed for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be incorporated by reference into any of the Company’s filings under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, unless expressly set forth as being incorporated by reference into such filing.