Rivian Automotive Inc (RIVN)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - ManufacturersSnapshot 2026-09-04
$15.74-1.07%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - ManufacturersSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · RIVN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 32.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 69.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 36.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 12 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
RIVN — CEO transition
Dated 2026-08-27
CFO — Claire McDonough: The CFO is resigning to pursue a new opportunity, which constitutes a genuine departure of a senior executive, though the orderly transition with an interim successor mitigates negative sentiment.
Why it matters: A stable CFO can provide financial leadership during a critical growth phase.
Supportive ifA permanent CFO will be announced before December 31, 2026.
Worry ifNo announcement of a permanent CFO by year-end 2026.
Why it matters: Revenue growth may show a recovery in the consumer sector. This impacts Rivian's market position.
Watch forQ2 revenue growth reported above 0%.
Also watch forQ2 revenue growth reported below 0%.
Why it matters: This facility is crucial for scaling production and meeting delivery targets. Its completion would support growth plans.
Supportive ifThe facility is now running and making vehicles.
Worry ifThere are delays in building the facility or starting production.
Why it matters: A smaller loss shows better cost control. It also means improved efficiency.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA loss reported at $(1.90) billion or less.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA loss is worse than $(2.00) billion.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$257 on $10,000 · ±2.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $652 loss on $10,000 · 6.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,254 loss on $10,000 · 42.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A big improvement shows better cost management. It also means more revenue growth.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA is $(350) million or better in Q3.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA worsens to $(500) million or worse in Q3.
Why it matters: Maintaining this guidance shows Rivian is committed to its growth plans.
Supportive ifCAPEX guidance confirmed at $1.95 billion to $2.05 billion.
Worry ifCAPEX guidance is now below $1.90 billion.
Why it matters: The debt terms could change future capital use and growth plans.
Watch forDebt issuance details show good terms and enough liquidity.
Also watch forTerms of the debt issuance indicate high costs or liquidity concerns.
Why it matters: Hitting this target shows strong demand and good production growth.
Supportive ifQ3 delivery numbers reach or exceed 17,000 units. This supports the higher full-year guidance.
Worry ifQ3 delivery numbers drop below 15,000 units. This shows possible demand problems.
Why it matters: Stable R2 production shows success in scaling and meeting demand.
Supportive ifR2 production stabilizes at 5,000 units each month. This confirms good ramp-up.
Worry ifR2 production drops below 3,000 units each month. This shows operational problems.