REPUBLIC AIRWAYS HOLDINGS INC (RJET)
NASDAQIndustrialsAirlines, Airports & Air ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-05
$19.87-3.07%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsAirlines, Airports & Air ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · RJET
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is still in the top half of its industry but slipped notably this past month — worth watching.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -67.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 100.0% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 167.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name has been missing across recent quarters and is on a run of consecutive earnings misses. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 9 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
RJET — litigation filed
Dated 2025-12-15
shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section, nor shall it be deemed to be incorporated by reference into any filing of the Company under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing. Forward Looking Statements This Current Report on Form 8-K contains forward-looking stateme…
Why it matters: The full-year target stayed at about 880,000 block hours. Results will test whether added flying continues after Q3.
Supportive ifRepublic reports at least 880,000 block hours for 2026.
Worry ifRepublic reports fewer than 880,000 block hours or cuts its full-year production outlook.
Why it matters: Republic kept its capital plan near $90 million, net of new debt. Spending well above that level would break the stated plan.
Worry ifFull-year capital spending, net of new debt, exceeds $90 million by more than 10%.
Less concerning ifFull-year capital spending, net of new debt, is $90 million or less.
Why it matters: Republic says most support work is done, but full integration is still underway. Delays could push back work under one operating certificate.
Watch forRepublic reports that FAA policy harmonization stays on track. Integration ends by the first half of 2028.
Also watch forRepublic reports a delay beyond the first half of 2028 or says FAA policy harmonization is off track.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$197 on $10,000 · ±2.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $628 loss on $10,000 · 6.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,783 loss on $10,000 · 37.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.