REPUBLIC AIRWAYS HOLDINGS INC (RJET)
NASDAQIndustrialsAirlines, Airports & Air ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$17.92+4.07%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsAirlines, Airports & Air ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · RJET
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -61.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 100.0% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 161.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name has been missing across recent quarters and is on a run of consecutive earnings misses. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 9 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
RJET — litigation filed
Dated 2025-12-15
shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section, nor shall it be deemed to be incorporated by reference into any filing of the Company under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing. Forward Looking Statements This Current Report on Form 8-K contains forward-looking stateme…
Why it matters: Good integration helps with efficiency and cuts costs. This affects profits in the long run.
Supportive ifManagement says the integration is on track. It should finish in 18 to 24 months.
Worry ifManagement says there are delays. Integration may take longer than 24 months.
Why it matters: Confirming the revenue guidance shows the company is on track for growth. It reflects the success of the merger and operational execution.
Supportive ifManagement confirms Q3 revenue guidance of at least $2.1 billion for 2026.
Worry ifManagement lowers revenue guidance to less than $2.0 billion for 2026.
Why it matters: Meeting this spending goal helps the company grow. It also improves operations.
Watch forManagement says spending is on track at or above $90 million.
Also watch forManagement says spending is less than $70 million.
Why it matters: The new CEO's vision and strategy will shape the company's future direction.
Watch forThe market reacted positively. The stock price went up after the CEO change.
Also watch forThe market reacted negatively. The stock price went down after the CEO change.
Why it matters: This shows management's focus on spending plans for 2026.
Supportive ifCapital spending reported at $90 million or more.
Worry ifCapital spending is below $70 million.
Why it matters: The new CEO's strategy could shape the company's direction and performance.
Watch forGood market reactions or new plans from the new CEO are announced.
Also watch forNegative market reactions or lack of clear strategy from the new CEO.
Why it matters: Hitting this revenue target shows strong demand. It also shows good merger integration.
Supportive ifQ3 2026 revenue reported at or above $2.1 billion.
Worry ifQ3 2026 revenue reported below $2.0 billion.
Why it matters: Staying on target shows good spending habits. This is important for financial health.
Watch forCapital spending is at or below $90 million for the year.
Also watch forCapital spending goes over $100 million for the year.
Why it matters: Meeting this target shows a commitment to lowering debt. This is key for stability.
Watch forDebt repayments reported at or near $165 million for the full year.
Also watch forDebt repayments fall below $150 million for the full year.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$239 on $10,000 · ±2.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $628 loss on $10,000 · 6.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,554 loss on $10,000 · 35.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.